{"id":72272,"date":"2015-05-11T05:02:27","date_gmt":"2015-05-11T09:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=72272"},"modified":"2015-05-11T07:10:00","modified_gmt":"2015-05-11T11:10:00","slug":"4-dividend-aristocrats-could-be-in-serious-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/05\/4-dividend-aristocrats-could-be-in-serious-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"4 Dividend Aristocrats Could Be in Serious Trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1998343872\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">May 11, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/WallStreetDaily.com\/\"><u>WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"attachment-home-th wp-post-image\" style=\"margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/05-11-dividend-aristocrats-danger.jpg\" alt=\"These Dividend Aristocrats Could Be in Trouble\" width=\"510\" height=\"300\" \/><\/p>\n<p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/author\/chris-worthington\/\">Chris Worthington<\/a>, <em>Editor-in-Chief of Income<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As an income investor, you\u2019ve probably heard of the illustrious \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/2014\/07\/25\/dividend-aristocrats-valuation\/\">Dividend Aristocrats<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>These 54 companies have continuously raised their dividends over the last 25 years or more.<\/p>\n<p>And because dividend growth \u2013 not just yield \u2013 is critical for achieving outperformance, the Aristocrats are popular investments for income seekers.<\/p>\n<p>But some of these regal companies may be hiding behind their spotless reputation.<\/p><div id=\"inves-3048039823\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Just a little digging reveals that several of these lauded stocks are teetering on the edge of losing their Aristocratic rank\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, just because a stock has raised its dividend for a quarter of a century doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019ll continue to do so forever.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, it\u2019s important to look at the financials of the 54 Aristocrats and identify which dividends may be in danger of a freeze\u2026 or even a cut.<\/p>\n<p>First, let\u2019s take a look at the dividend payout ratio. Anything above 80% should be a red flag for investors. Yet, four of the Dividend Aristocrats (excluding <strong>HCP, Inc.<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=hcp&amp;ql=1\" target=\"_blank\">HCP<\/a>), which, as a real estate investment trust, is held to a different standard) are above this important threshold:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/media.wallstreetdaily.com\/charts\/0515_DivDanger.png\" alt=\"Dividends in Danger?\" width=\"500\" height=\"522\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart above shows both the 2014 dividend payout ratio and the trailing 12-month payout ratio. The latter gives an idea of whether the company is moving toward a more or less sustainable dividend, as its most recent quarter is included.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let\u2019s take a closer look at these four companies to see whether their dividends are truly in danger.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Sysco<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=SYY\" target=\"_blank\">SYY<\/a>): With a trailing 12-month payout ratio of 80.9% \u2013 just slightly above our 80% threshold \u2013 Sysco is in the least danger of losing its title of Aristocrat. Still, the financial numbers aren\u2019t encouraging. Both revenue growth and net income have declined every year since 2010, and free cash flow has been in decline for just about three years now. In order to continue increasing its dividend, Sysco will have to make some tweaks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kimberly-Clark Corp<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=KMB\" target=\"_blank\">KMB<\/a>): This company has a trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio of 86.9%. Though it\u2019s not above 100%, which would be cause for immediate concern, KMB\u2019s financials are still worrisome. First, revenue peaked back in 2013, and then declined 6.8% last year. Even more shocking, net income dropped over 28% from December 2013 to December 2014. To top it off, free cash flow has been in decline since 2012. All in all, these aren\u2019t favorable trends for KMB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>AbbVie<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=ABBV\" target=\"_blank\">ABBV<\/a>): Though AbbVie has only been around since 2013 \u2013 which would render it unfit to be a Dividend Aristocrat \u2013 it was spun off from <strong>Abbott Laboratories<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q;_ylt=AnZ.pPK7q7Mko84cUByV_OHxVax_;_ylu=X3oDMTE5N2FmdXNuBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDeWZpU3ltYm9sTG9va3VwUmVzdWx0cwRzbGsDYWJ0?s=ABT\" target=\"_blank\">ABT<\/a>), which had been paying a dividend since 1983. Currently, AbbVie\u2019s dividend payout ratio is well above 100%, which is alarming. What\u2019s more, free cash flow has been in precipitous decline since 2012. In fact, ABBV\u2019s trailing 12-month free cash flow is just 49% of 2012\u2019s level. Similarly, net income plummeted 57% last year. If ABBV continues down this path, its future as a Dividend Aristocrat looks bleak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>AT&amp;T<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=t&amp;ql=1\" target=\"_blank\">AT&amp;T<\/a>): Finally, we come to the Dividend Aristocrat with the highest payout ratio. AT&amp;T\u2019s trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio is a brutal 168.1%, more than double our payout threshold. That seems pretty damning\u2026 but not all of the financials are bad. For instance, its revenue growth has actually been <em>increasing<\/em> for over three years now. So, is the dividend in danger? The answer is, quite possibly. Consider the company\u2019s free cash flow, which peaked at $19.7 billion in 2012, but has since declined a whopping 49.7%. If AT&amp;T wants to continue raising its dividend, it\u2019ll have to find a way to generate more cash flow going forward.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bottom line: The Dividend Aristocrats represent the best of the best when it comes to consistent dividend growth\u2026 but it doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re invulnerable.<\/p>\n<p>Always be on the lookout for companies with excessively high dividend payout ratios. After all, you don\u2019t want to get stuck with a company that ends up freezing or even slashing its dividend.<\/p>\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n<p>Chris Worthington<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/2015\/05\/11\/dividend-aristocrats-danger\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">4 Dividend Aristocrats Could Be in Serious Trouble<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By WallStreetDaily.com By Chris Worthington, Editor-in-Chief of Income As an income investor, you\u2019ve probably heard of the illustrious \u201cDividend Aristocrats.\u201d These 54 companies have continuously raised their dividends over the last 25 years or more. And because dividend growth \u2013 not just yield \u2013 is critical for achieving outperformance, the Aristocrats are popular investments for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72272"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72272\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72283,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72272\/revisions\/72283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}