{"id":72198,"date":"2015-05-08T07:23:38","date_gmt":"2015-05-08T11:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=72198"},"modified":"2015-05-08T07:23:38","modified_gmt":"2015-05-08T11:23:38","slug":"gbpusd-jumped-on-uk-election-outcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/05\/gbpusd-jumped-on-uk-election-outcome\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD Jumped On UK Election Outcome"},"content":{"rendered":"
May 8, 2015<\/div>
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GROWTHACES.COM<\/a> Forex Trading Strategies<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taken Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/USD:<\/strong> long at 1.1235, target 1.1450, stop-loss 1.1135, risk factor **<\/p>\n

USD\/CHF:<\/strong> short at 0.9180, target 0.9000, stop-loss 0.9260, risk factor **<\/p>\n

AUD\/USD:<\/strong> long at 0.7865, target 0.8080, stop-loss moved to 0.7865, risk factor **<\/p>\n

EUR\/GBP:<\/strong> long at 0.7240, target 0.7480, stop-loss moved to 0.7240, risk factor *<\/p>

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EUR\/JPY:<\/strong> long at 134.20, target 136.70, stop-loss 132.95, risk factor **<\/p>\n

EUR\/CAD:<\/strong> long at 1.3620, target 1.3825, stop-loss 1.3520, risk factor **<\/p>\n

CHF\/JPY:<\/strong> long at 129.80, target 132.50, stop-loss 128.70, risk factor **<\/p>\n

Pending Orders<\/strong><\/p>\n

GBP\/USD: <\/strong>buy at 1.5320, target 1.5570, stop-loss 1.5195, risk factor **<\/p>\n

USD\/CAD:<\/strong> sell at 1.2170, target 1.1930, stop-loss 1.2280, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

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EUR\/USD: U.S. Jobs Report Awaited<\/strong><\/p>\n

(long for 1.1450)<\/p>\n

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  • Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voting this year) repeated on Thursday his view that waiting until 2016 to raise rates would allow the Fed to be more confident<\/strong> that an excessively low rate of inflation will head back up to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target. Still, he was optimistic that weak first-quarter growth would prove transitory, that growth will bounce back to 3% this quarter, and today’s jobs report will show a monthly gain of more than 200k jobs.<\/li>\n
  • U.S. Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 3k to a seasonally adjusted 265k for the week ended May 2. That was well below the 280k forecast.<\/li>\n
  • Today\u2019 s macroeconomic data from the Eurozone\u2019 largest economy were slightly disappointing.<\/strong>German industrial output fell by 0.5% mom vs. forecast for a 0.4% rise.<\/strong> Moreover, imports climbed more sharply than exports suggesting weaker net exports contribution to the first-quarter GDP growth. German GDP figures for the January-March period are due be published next Wednesday and market expects a modest reduction in growth to 0.6% from the robust 0.7% registered in the last three months of 2014.<\/li>\n
  • The EUR\/USD retreated from 1.1392 high yesterday. The USD firmed against a basket of currencies on the initial jobless claims data. The data helped bolster expectations for a relatively strong employment report today (U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released at 12:30 GMT<\/strong>). The April jobs report is likely to show a pickup in hiring, reversing the disappointing reading of last month. However, the market forecast for a 224k gain in employment seems to be quite optimistic and we do not expect the reading to be strongly better, especially after weak ADP data on Wednesday.<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Our buy order on the EUR\/USD was filled at 1.1235. We set the target at 1.1450, daily highs on February 17 and February 19.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \"EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

    Resistance: 1.1281 (hourly high May 8), 1.1391 (high May 7), 1.1450 (high Feb 19)<\/p>\n

    Support: 1.1175 (low May 6), 1.1067 (low May 5), 1.1059 (38.2% of 1.0520-1.1392)<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    GBP\/USD Jumped On UK Election Outcome<\/strong><\/p>\n

    (profit taken, buy at 1.5320)<\/p>\n

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    • Britain’s goods deficit in the month of March narrowed to GBP 10.122<\/strong> from GBP 10.799 billion in February which was revised to show a bigger deficit than an original estimate. The market had forecast a gap of GBP 9.8 billion in March.<\/strong> Including Britain’s surplus in its trade in services, the overall trade deficit narrowed by just over GBP 500 million to GBP 2.817 billion in March, but the shortfall for the first quarter widened to GBP 7.481 billion from GBP 5.968 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.<\/li>\n
    • The Office For National Statistics said the bigger shortfall in the first quarter would have a very small drag effect on overall economic growth in the period. By contrast, trade provided a boost to GDP growth in the last three months of 2014. Preliminary data published last month showed the British economy grew much more slowly than expected in the first quarter.<\/li>\n
    • Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives are set to govern Britain for another five years after an unexpectedly strong showing. With nearly three quarters of seats counted, the Conservatives had won 203 of 650 seats with an exit poll suggesting they were on track to win 316 seats in the lower house of parliament, just shy of a majority but with plentiful options to form a government.<\/strong> In practice, controlling 323 seats in parliament is enough to command a majority as four lawmakers from Northern Ireland’s Sinn Fein refuse to take their places.<\/li>\n
    • The straight majority was a surprise to many investors<\/strong> who, given that pollsters had predicted a hung parliament. The GBP\/USD rose as high as 1.5523, its highest since February 26. We took profit on our long GBP\/USD position (1.5160-1.5460). We expect a correction on profit taking from GBP-long positions now. We will be looking to get long again at lower levels. The next key resistance zone is in the area of 1.5570 \u2013 38.2% of 1.7192-1.4567 slide (July 2014-March 2015) and the 2015 peak at 1.5588 (on January 2).<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \"GBP\/USD<\/p>\n

      Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

      Resistance: 1.1281 (hourly high May 8), 1.1391 (high May 7), 1.1450 (high Feb 19)<\/p>\n

      Support: 1.1175 (low May 6), 1.1067 (low May 5), 1.1059 (38.2% of 1.0520-1.1392)<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      AUD\/USD: RBA Trimmed Its Growth And Inflation Forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

      (long for 0.8080)<\/p>\n

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      • The RBA narrowed its GDP growth forecast<\/strong> for 2015 to 2.5% versus 2.25-3.25% previously and saw the economy growing at 2.75-3.75% in 2016, down from 3-4%. The Reserve Bank of Australia said weakness in business investment meant the economy would continue to grow at a below-average pace for longer than expected just a few months ago. The central bank now saw core inflation at 2.5% for 2015, versus 2-3% previously, and shifted down its 2016 forecast range to 1.75-2.75%, from 2-3%.<\/li>\n
      • The RBA said: \u201cThe Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time.\u201d Some in markets had thought the bank would offer a more explicit promise to ease again if needed.<\/li>\n
      • The central bank sounded more hopeful that a turnaround for the local economy was near<\/strong>: \u201cMany preconditions for a recovery in non-mining business investment are in place, so it is possible that the recovery could begin earlier or be stronger than currently forecast. (\u2026) It is possible that employment growth will be stronger than expected and the unemployment rate will not increase to the extent anticipated, although this could probably only be achieved with ongoing moderating in wage growth.\u201d<\/li>\n
      • Disappointing trade figures from China<\/strong>, Australia’s top export market, were released today. China’s exports fell 6.4% yoy in April, missing market expectations for a 2.4% yoy rise, while imports tumbled 16.2% yoy vs. forecast for 12% drop.<\/li>\n
      • The AUD\/USD reached a day\u2019s low at 0.7864 today, just below our buy order placed at 0.7865. The RBA did not give a clear easing bias in its quarterly economic forecast and the AUD\/USD briefly popped higher. The short-term target of our long position is 0.8080, but we see potential for even stronger rises. Today\u2019s U.S. non-farm payrolls data (12:30 GMT) will be of key importance for further AUD\/USD developments \u2013 using a trailing stop-loss could be a good idea.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \"AUD\/USD<\/p>\n

        Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

        Resistance: 0.8004 (high May 7), 0.8031 (high May 6), 0.8077 (high Apr 29)<\/p>\n

        Support: 0.7888 (hourly low May 5), 0.7858 (hourly low May 5), 0.7808 (21-dma)<\/p>\n

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         <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies Taken Positions EUR\/USD: long at 1.1235, target 1.1450, stop-loss 1.1135, risk factor ** USD\/CHF: short at 0.9180, target 0.9000, stop-loss 0.9260, risk factor ** AUD\/USD: long at 0.7865, target 0.8080, stop-loss moved to 0.7865, risk factor ** EUR\/GBP: long at 0.7240, target 0.7480, stop-loss moved to 0.7240, risk factor * EUR\/JPY: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72198"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72198\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72199,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72198\/revisions\/72199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}