{"id":71518,"date":"2015-04-24T07:39:14","date_gmt":"2015-04-24T11:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=71518"},"modified":"2015-04-24T07:39:14","modified_gmt":"2015-04-24T11:39:14","slug":"eurusd-is-market-getting-ready-for-dovish-fomc-statement-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/04\/eurusd-is-market-getting-ready-for-dovish-fomc-statement-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD: Is Market Getting Ready For Dovish FOMC Statement Next Week?"},"content":{"rendered":"
April 24, 2015<\/div>
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GROWTHACES.COM<\/a> Forex Trading Strategies<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taken Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n

EUR\/USD:<\/strong> long at 1.0740, target 1.1000, stop-loss moved to 1.0740, risk factor *<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD:<\/strong> long at 1.4900, target 1.5270, stop-loss moved to 1.5020, risk factor *<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY:<\/strong> short at 119.35, target 117.20, stop-loss 120.20, risk factor **<\/p>\n

USD\/CAD:<\/strong> short at 1.2280, target 1.2000, stop-loss moved to 1.2280, risk factor **<\/p>

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AUD\/USD:<\/strong> long at 0.7730, target 0.7950, stop-loss 0.7620, risk factor **<\/p>\n

NZD\/USD:<\/strong> long at 0.7630, target 0.7850, stop-loss 0.7520, risk factor **<\/p>\n

EUR\/GBP:<\/strong> long at 0.7170, target 0.7350, stop-loss 0.7110, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

AUD\/JPY:<\/strong> long at 91.80, target 94.00, stop-loss 91.80, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

Pending Orders<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD\/CHF:<\/strong> sell at 0.9600, if filled – target 0.9365, stop-loss 0.9700, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

GBP\/JPY:<\/strong> buy at 179.70, if filled – target 182.20, stop-loss 178.90, risk factor *<\/p>\n

EUR\/JPY:<\/strong> buy at 129.00, if filled \u2013 target 131.10, stop-loss , 128.00 risk factor *<\/p>\n

CHF\/JPY:<\/strong> buy at 124.70, if filled – target 126.85, stop-loss 124.00, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

AUD\/NZD: <\/strong>buy at 1.0190, if filled \u2013 target 1.0400, stop-loss 1.0090, risk factor ***<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

EUR\/USD: Is Market Getting Ready For Dovish FOMC Statement Next Week?<\/strong><\/p>\n

(long for 1.1000)<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales declined 11.4% mom to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481k units<\/strong>. That was the biggest percent drop since July 2013 and much weaker than the median forecast for a 8.5% fall. February’s sales pace was revised up to 543k units, the highest level since February 2008, from the previously reported 539k units. The stock of new houses available on the market rose 1.9% mom last month to 213k. Supply still remains less than half of what it was at the height of the housing boom.<\/li>\n
  • Disappointing U.S. data gave the market a fresh excuse to cut bullish USD positions<\/strong>. Durable goods orders data are scheduled for today. The market is going to focus on the Fed message next week.<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • What shall we expect from the Fed on April 29? We do not expect any major modifications to the statement. However, downgrading growth assessment should not be a shock \u2013 the majority of U.S. data since the previous FOMC meeting in March have surprised on the downside. More \u201cdovish\u201d statement will give a boost to the EUR\/USD. The market may be preparing for such a scenario.<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will also release its first estimate for first-quarter GDP growth next Wednesday. <\/strong>The market expects growth of 1.0% qoq annualized vs. 2.2% in the fourth quarter 2014. In our opinion the growth might be even slightly weaker (0.8%), as we expect that there was no growth in investment spending and net exports subtracted about 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth.<\/strong> Weak GDP data may be another factor supporting EUR\/USD bulls.<\/li>\n
  • The EUR\/USD is rising today also on Greek hopes. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was speaking after a meeting she called “constructive” with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on the sidelines of a European Union summit in Brussels<\/strong>. She said they had agreed to keep the contents of their discussion confidential. Asked how great the risk was of Athens running out of cash before any agreement was reached with its official lenders, she told a news conference: \u201cEverything must be undertaken to prevent that.\u201d<\/em> Tsipras told reporters they had noted significant progress had been made in the negotiations and added: \u201cWe have covered a large part of the distance.\u201d<\/em> The head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said there was \u201ca great sense of urgency\u201d<\/em> to reach a deal with Greece Asked about the prospects of a deal soon, Dijsselbloem was optimistic saying that \u201cApril isn’t over yet\u201d.<\/li>\n
  • German Ifo’s business climate index , climbed to 108.6 in April from 107.9 in March<\/strong>. That was its highest reading since June 2014 and was slightly higher than the consensus forecast for 108.4. The Ifo survey showed that companies felt more upbeat about their current situation than in March but they became slightly more pessimistic about their outlook for the next six months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \"Ifo<\/p>\n

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    • We keep our EUR\/USD long position taken at 1.0740. The target is 1.1000. We should realize, however, that the speculative community remains extremely short on the EUR\/USD by historical standards and a break above 1.1051, <\/strong>the resistance on March 26, may trigger a short squeeze. That would mean a stronger growth in the EUR\/USD rate in the short term. That is why levels even near 1.1200 cannot be excluded next week.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \"EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

      Resistance: 1.0954 (high Apr 7), 1.1035 (high Apr 6), 1.1051 (high March 26)<\/p>\n

      Support: 1.0785 (low Apr 24), 1.0773 (21-dma), 1.0737 (10-dma)<\/p>\n

       <\/p>\n

      USD\/CHF: Investors Still Buying CHF Despite Intervention Threat<\/strong><\/p>\n

      (sell at 0.9600)<\/p>\n

        \n
      • The chairman of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan<\/strong> said: \u201cAs recent developments show, the Swiss franc may strengthen temporarily in response to the current phase of increased uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt problem.\u201d He added: \u201cWe will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary in order to influence monetary conditions<\/strong>.\u201d Central bank sees the franc as “significantly overvalued” and expects a weakening over time.<\/li>\n
      • Investors are not afraid of the possibility of deeper negative rates in Switzerland or SNB interventions and the CHF continued to appreciate today despite Jordan\u2019s comments. We have lowered our sell order on the USD\/CHF to 0.9600, but the strategy is quite risky due to possible interventions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \"USD\/CHF<\/p>\n

        Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

        Resistance: 0.9595 (100-dma), 0.9614 (10-dma), 0.9718 (high Apr 23)<\/p>\n

        Support: 0.9500 (psychological level), 0.9482 (low Apr 3), 0.9447 (low Feb 27)<\/p>\n

         <\/p>\n

        USD\/CAD: Oil Prices Provided A Boost To The Loonie<\/strong><\/p>\n

        (short for 1.2000)<\/p>\n

          \n
        • The CAD\/USD dropped yesterday, as weak U.S. new home sales data hurt the USD and a rally in the price of crude helped the loonie.<\/strong> Crude oil prices hitting 2015 highs after Saudi Arabia and its allies maintained an offensive in Yemen that heightened concerns about the security of Middle East oil supplies. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration said that U.S. oil production fell by 18,000 barrels per day or by 0.2% last week, the third decline in four weeks.<\/li>\n
        • In our opinion the CAD has sizeable potential to gain against the USD in case of dovish Fed statement next week.<\/strong> Analyzing all core markets we can see that Canadian inflation rate is relatively close to the target<\/strong>, but the CAD has depreciated relatively much since the middle of 2014 on expectations for the divergence in monetary policies. In our opinion the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates again<\/strong>, but a dovish statement from the Fed next Wednesday would be interpreted as lower likelihood of a September hike. Moreover, the expected uptrend in oil prices has the potential to support the Canadian economy and the CAD<\/strong> .<\/li>\n
        • We keep our short USD\/CAD position with the target at 1.2000.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          \"USD\/CAD<\/p>\n

          Significant technical analysis’ levels:<\/p>\n

          Resistance: 1.2180 (low Apr 20), 1.2208 (low Apr 22), 1.2269 (high Apr 23)<\/p>\n

          Support: 1.2100 (psychological level), 1.2088 (low Apr 17), 1.2062 (low Jan 21)<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n

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           <\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies Taken Positions EUR\/USD: long at 1.0740, target 1.1000, stop-loss moved to 1.0740, risk factor * GBP\/USD: long at 1.4900, target 1.5270, stop-loss moved to 1.5020, risk factor * USD\/JPY: short at 119.35, target 117.20, stop-loss 120.20, risk factor ** USD\/CAD: short at 1.2280, target 1.2000, stop-loss moved to 1.2280, risk factor […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71518"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71518\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71519,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71518\/revisions\/71519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}