{"id":71086,"date":"2015-04-15T10:11:41","date_gmt":"2015-04-15T14:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=71086"},"modified":"2015-04-15T10:11:41","modified_gmt":"2015-04-15T14:11:41","slug":"eurusd-bears-becoming-more-frustrated-with-weak-u-s-figures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/04\/eurusd-bears-becoming-more-frustrated-with-weak-u-s-figures\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD: Bears Becoming More Frustrated With Weak U.S. Figures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-3118565385\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">April 15, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/GROWTHACES.COM\" target=\"_blank\">GROWTHACES.COM<\/a> Forex Trading Strategies<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Taken Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP\/USD:<\/strong> short at 1.4730, target 1.4500, stop-loss 1.4845, risk factor *<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/JPY:<\/strong> short at 127.20, target 125.00, stop-loss moved to 127.20, risk factor ***<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/CAD:<\/strong> short at 1.3370, target 1.3200, stop-loss moved to 1.3300, risk factor **<\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP\/JPY:<\/strong> short at 176.40, target 173.70, stop-loss moved to 176.40, risk factor ***<\/p><div id=\"inves-2509567773\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><strong>CHF\/JPY:<\/strong> short at 123.20, target 120.50, stop-loss moved to 123.20, risk factor ***<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pending Orders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD:<\/strong> sell at 1.0750, if filled \u2013 target 1.0460, stop-loss 1.0905, risk factor ***<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY:<\/strong> buy at 118.60, if filled \u2013 target 121.10, stop-loss 117.40, risk factor ***<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CHF: <\/strong>buy at 0.9640, if filled \u2013 target 0.9790, stop-loss 0.9570, risk factor ***<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD: Bears Becoming More Frustrated With Weak U.S. Figures<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(sell at 1.0750)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>U.S. retail sales jumped 0.9% mom last month, after 0.5% mom decline in February<\/strong>. The reading was only slightly lower than the market expectations for 1.0% mom rise. That was the largest gain since the same month last year and snapped three straight months of declines that had been blamed on harsh winter weather.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Excluding the volatile categories of autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, sales rose 0.3% mom after dropping 0.2% mom in February<\/strong>. The so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP. Last month&#8217;s mild rebound in core retail sales and February&#8217;s decline pointed to a slower pace of consumer spending in the first quarter. We should notice, however, household savings are at their highest level in just over two years, thanks to a tightening labor market and cheaper gasoline. This suggests a strong potential for consumers to boost spending in the months ahead.<\/li>\n<li><strong>In a separate report, the Labor Department said its PPI for final demand rose 0.2% mom and fell 0.8% yoy last month, the biggest yoy decline since the revamped series started in 2009.<\/strong> <strong>Low inflation and signs of a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter have prompted investors to push back their expectations for the first Fed rate hike to either September or October from June.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The EUR\/USD jumped after the release of the retail sales data to daily high of 1.0708, just above the stop-loss level of our short position. <strong>The relatively outsized market reaction to the U.S. retail sales data suggested USD bulls were becoming frustrated with the recent string of U.S. economic data and trimming their long-USD bets. However, the recovery was short-lived<\/strong> and the rate went back below 1.0600 today in the morning of the European session. <strong>The short-term outlook is still bearish. We are looking to get short again and have placed our sell order at 1.0750 (10-dma)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The ECB meeting is scheduled for today.<\/strong> We should expect little news from ECB President Draghi\u2019s press conference. We wrote in yesterday\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/articles\/daily-forex-analysis-eurusd-markets-begin-taper-talk-ahead-ecb-meeting\" target=\"_blank\">Market Overview<\/a> that some investors were already asking when and how the ECB might start scaling down its stimulus. In our opinion Draghi will not give any hint on this issue today. <strong>ECB President is expected to say the central bank intends to fully deliver previously announced stimulus measures as risks to growth remain and inflation is subdued.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/sites\/default\/files\/eurusd_15042015.png\" alt=\"EUR\/USD Forex Daily Chart\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis&#8217; levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 1.0708 (high Apr 14), 1.0750 (10-dma), 1.0788 (high Apr 9)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 1.0532 (low Apr 14), 1.0521 (low Apr 13), 1.0457 (low Mar 16)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>AUD\/USD Hit By China Data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(stay sideways)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell 3.2% mom<\/strong> <strong>and 3.5% yoy in April<\/strong>. The retreat unwound more of February&#8217;s sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month.<\/li>\n<li>A measure of family finances compared to a year ago fell 7.4%, while the outlook for the next 12 months eased a relatively slim 0.7%. Despite all the anxiety, respondents still felt it was a good time to buy a major household item, with that index climbing 5.9% in April.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The AUD\/USD<\/strong> opened Wednesday at 0.7626, but <strong>quickly fell below 0.7600<\/strong> and is depreciating further. Part of the weakness came after the release of <strong>weaker measure of Australian consumer<\/strong>sentiment but <strong>China data were also not helping<\/strong>. Annual economic growth in China slowed, as expected, to a six-year low of 7% in the first quarter, while retail sales and industrial output undershot forecasts. Chinese retail sales rose 10.2% yoy vs. median forecast for a 10.9% yoy rise. Industrial output went up by 5.6% yoy vs. median forecast for a 6.9% yoy rise.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Investors slightly increased the risk of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May. However, in our opinion May rate cut is uncertain. <\/strong>That is why we see a risk of the relatively stronger AUD and stay sideways on the AUD\/USD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/sites\/default\/files\/audusd_15042015.png\" alt=\"AUD\/USD Forex Daily Chart\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis&#8217; levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 0.7678 (session high Apr 13), 0.7694 (21-dma), 0.7720 (high Apr 10)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 0.7556 (low Apr 14), 0.7534 (low Apr 2), 0.7500 (psychological level)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies Taken Positions GBP\/USD: short at 1.4730, target 1.4500, stop-loss 1.4845, risk factor * EUR\/JPY: short at 127.20, target 125.00, stop-loss moved to 127.20, risk factor *** EUR\/CAD: short at 1.3370, target 1.3200, stop-loss moved to 1.3300, risk factor ** GBP\/JPY: short at 176.40, target 173.70, stop-loss moved to 176.40, risk factor [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71086"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71086\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71087,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71086\/revisions\/71087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}