{"id":69699,"date":"2015-03-17T18:16:01","date_gmt":"2015-03-17T22:16:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=69699"},"modified":"2015-03-17T18:16:01","modified_gmt":"2015-03-17T22:16:01","slug":"reality-always-wins-but-never-on-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/03\/reality-always-wins-but-never-on-schedule\/","title":{"rendered":"Reality Always Wins\u2026 But Never on Schedule"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-767134049\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">March 17, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h4>By Louis James, Chief Metals &amp; Mining Investment Strategist,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui42f-2\/PIP\">caseyresearch.com<\/a><\/h4>\n<p>\u201cExpect the worst and you won\u2019t be disappointed\u201d is true enough, but it\u2019s a miserable way to go through life.<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/trk.caseyresearch.com\/f\/?content_id=1211&amp;code=PIP&amp;editorial=reality-always-wins-but-never-on-schedule\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>For investors, expecting the worst is paralyzing, a reason to do nothing.<\/p>\n<p>But when a market gets beaten up the way the natural-resource sector has been over the last few years, pessimism comes to dominate the chatter in boardrooms, blogs, and cocktail parties the way mold takes over a shower. It\u2019s a blight.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: .5in;\">\u201cThere are no buyers left in the market; it will take years to recover.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: .5in;\">\u201cThere\u2019s no financing available, so everything will grind to a halt for years to come.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: .5in;\">\u201cDon\u2019t step on that black spot.\u201d<\/p><div id=\"inves-1540652018\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Recent experience in the resource sector has been so bruising that the wounded have turned to pessimism as a psychological defense, to feel wise and experienced, or at least a little less foolish. An upbeat assessment wouldn\u2019t just risk more money, it would risk more pain.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>What Is<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Opinions are plentiful, so rather than offering one more, let me summarize what I know for certain: price and value are related, but they often diverge.<\/p>\n<p>The essential investment formula is \u201cBuy low, sell high.\u201d What makes that more than a truism is that price and value often move in different directions\u2014but not forever. Price is a wandering dog that eventually comes home to value.<\/p>\n<p>Hidden in the wreckage of today\u2019s beaten-up resource market are stocks you can buy for much less than their real value. Entire companies are trading for less than their cash. Not all those stocks are going to recover, however, since in some cases management is such a liability that the cash is likely to be wasted. But it does tell us we are at or near the best time to implement the \u201cbuy low\u201d part of the investment formula, picking up the stocks with real value.<\/p>\n<p>Critical point: <em>Don\u2019t wring your hands over whether the bottom of the market is behind us or in front of us<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The only thing that matters is that you buy truly undervalued stocks in companies that have assets of real value\u2014deep value, as is fashionable to say these days\u2014and the management strength to develop that value.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the reason Casey Research is holding a timely online event titled \u201c<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui5x9-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\">GOING VERTICAL<\/a><\/strong>\u201d. Eight stars of the mining industry and seasoned resource investors \u00a0discuss the historic opportunity the current market offers, and the best ways to prepare your portfolio for a shot at the jackpot when the gold market rallies again. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui4ja-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\">Register here to watch this free event now.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I know how difficult it is for investors to buy into an unpopular market when most of the pundits are dissing it. \u201cWhat if it goes even lower?\u201d is the big, paralyzing fear. Logical argument and economic reality\u2014our civilization and most of the people living today simply cannot exist without natural-resource extraction\u2014is not enough to neutralize the worries.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>A Functioning Memory Is a Big Help<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Fact: If you are in the right stocks, it\u2019s possible not only to recover from a severe correction but to come out way ahead.<\/p>\n<p>Below is a selection of actual stock picks from <em>Casey International Speculator<\/em> on which we made a lot of money <em>despite<\/em> severe retreats in the market and plunges in share prices. As a group, these stock rose after we recommended them, then fell an average of 69% before going on to become winners. The average gain from those lows to subsequent peaks was 795%. More downdraft than anyone wants, and more profit than most investors dream of.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui4nb-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 600px; width: 100%;\" src=\"http:\/\/d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net\/ee-assets\/channels\/article_default\/150317table1.JPG\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Now, I\u2019m not claiming this was our whole portfolio, nor that we sold any of these stocks at the top. What I am saying is that we made excellent returns on all of these stocks even though every one of them spit in our face after we bought it, selling off substantially\u2014and then came back with gusto. One <strong>fell 90% and then soared 1,200%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Key takeaway: Stocks in good companies will recover from even the most serious bear mauling.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>What\u2019s Coming<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Whether it has already happened or is yet to come, three signs tell me the bottom in junior gold stocks is not far off.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Investors don\u2019t want to hear about junior gold stocks. Most readers who started this article didn\u2019t even read this far.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>When gold broke through its previous low last November, most pundits announced it would drop to $1,000 or go even lower. It rebounded instead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>While the sector continues to languish, stocks of the best junior companies have risen dramatically and largely have held on to those gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All good signs, yes. But I\u2019d feel better if you didn\u2019t bet on the timing. For a sure thing, bet on the value you can buy on the cheap now.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui4rc-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to watch<\/a> Franco-Nevada\u2019s Pierre Lassonde\u2026 Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey\u2026 Pretium\u2019s Bob Quartermain\u2026 Sprott US Holdings chairman Rick Rule\u2026 Aben Resources\u2019 Ron Netolitzky\u2026 U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes\u2026 and Casey Research metals experts Jeff Clark and Louis James in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui4cd-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\">GOING VERTICAL<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"xvMdV95u77zU\" style=\"clear: both;\">The article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui4fe-2\/PIP\" rel=\"permalink\">Reality Always Wins\u2026 But Never on Schedule<\/a> was originally published at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ui42f-2\/PIP\">caseyresearch.com<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Louis James, Chief Metals &amp; Mining Investment Strategist,\u00a0caseyresearch.com \u201cExpect the worst and you won\u2019t be disappointed\u201d is true enough, but it\u2019s a miserable way to go through life. For investors, expecting the worst is paralyzing, a reason to do nothing. But when a market gets beaten up the way the natural-resource sector has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69699"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69699\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69700,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69699\/revisions\/69700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}