{"id":69030,"date":"2015-03-04T19:46:00","date_gmt":"2015-03-05T00:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=69030"},"modified":"2015-03-04T19:46:00","modified_gmt":"2015-03-05T00:46:00","slug":"heres-what-stock-market-bulls-might-be-overlooking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/03\/heres-what-stock-market-bulls-might-be-overlooking\/","title":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s What Stock Market Bulls Might Be Overlooking"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1301379775\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">March 4, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">A growing economy is not necessarily bullish &#8212; see for yourself <\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Editor&#8217;s note: You&#8217;ll find a text version of this story below the video.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"LimelightEmbeddedPlayer\"><script src=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/embed.js\"><\/script><object id=\"limelight_player_230701\" class=\"LimelightEmbeddedPlayerFlash\" data=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/loader.swf\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" name=\"limelight_player_230701\" width=\"480\" height=\"321\"><param name=\"movie\" value=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/loader.swf\" \/><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"window\" \/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"deepLink=true&amp;channelId=d1069a09b0df433caa2d2d70ddf2a010&amp;playerForm=Player\" \/><\/object><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\nLimelightPlayerUtil.initEmbed('limelight_player_230701');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa488&amp;dy=aa030415&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-Global-Markets-LG.aspx?code=99998%26articleid=5389\">Learn how you can get our FREE, 53-page <em><strong>State of the Global Markets <\/strong><\/em>report now &gt;&gt;<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>On Friday (Feb. 27), the 4th quarter U.S. GDP was revised downward to 2.2% from the original 2.6%.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;U.S. stock markets shrugged off the revision,&#8221; wrote Fox Business. And why wouldn&#8217;t they &#8212; after all, the conventional wisdom says that as long as the economy is growing, so is the stock market.<\/p>\n<p><em>Except, it&#8217;s not exactly true.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>See, if that notion were true, then you&#8217;d have to assume that the U.S. economy was in a bad shape in 2007, when the stock market began its biggest decline since the Great Depression. But the facts show the opposite.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1977107447\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/image\/mw%2006-26-2014one.GIF\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"268\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When the Dow topped in October 2007, key economic measures were indeed strong:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In the quarter preceding the market peak, GDP expanded at 2.7%<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment in 2007 was 4.6%<\/li>\n<li>Consumer confidence was very strong, too (top red circle; chart: Bloomberg)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If a strong economy means a strong stock market, then stocks should have continued higher. They didn&#8217;t. The Dow fell more than 50% over the next year and a half:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/image\/mw%2006-26-2014twoe.GIF\" alt=\"\" width=\"461\" height=\"476\" \/><\/p>\n<p>If you think that&#8217;s counterintuitive, then fast forward to early 2009. That&#8217;s when we saw the opposite economic picture:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to an all-time low (the second red circle on the blue chart)<\/li>\n<li>GDP growth fell to a negative 5.4%<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment rate more than doubled to almost 10%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Because of such terrible economic data, few mainstream economists were optimistic in early 2009. And yet the stock market bottomed in March of that year.<\/p>\n<p>This reminds me of a quote from our monthly <em>Elliott Wave Theorist<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Suppose you were to possess perfect knowledge that next quarter&#8217;s GDP will be the strongest rising quarter for a span of 15 years, guaranteed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Would you buy stocks?<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Had you anticipated precisely this event for 4Q 1987, you would have owned stocks for the biggest stock market crash since 1929.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;GDP was positive every quarter for 20 straight quarters before the 1987 crash &#8212; and for 10 quarters thereafter.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But the market crashed anyway.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<hr \/>\n<table class=\"body\" style=\"border: solid 5px #EAEAEA; padding: 10px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa488&amp;dy=aa030415&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-Global-Markets-LG.aspx?code=99998%26articleid=5389\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/club\/web_ads\/7046-pr-globalmarkets.png\" alt=\"State of the Global Markets Report\" width=\"85\" height=\"150\" align=\"left\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"5\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa488&amp;dy=aa030415&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-Global-Markets-LG.aspx?code=99998%26articleid=5389\">Get our FREE <em>State of the Global Markets <\/em>Report &#8212; 2015 Edition<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>We invite you to read our free State of the Global Markets report to learn what&#8217;s ahead for the U.S., European and Asian-Pacific stock markets.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa488&amp;dy=aa030415&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-Global-Markets-LG.aspx?code=99998%26articleid=5389\"><strong>Learn how you can get this FREE, 53-page report now &gt;&gt;<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<hr \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n<hr style=\"border: 1px dotted #fff;\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A growing economy is not necessarily bullish &#8212; see for yourself By Elliott Wave International Editor&#8217;s note: You&#8217;ll find a text version of this story below the video. Learn how you can get our FREE, 53-page State of the Global Markets report now &gt;&gt; On Friday (Feb. 27), the 4th quarter U.S. GDP was revised [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}