{"id":67332,"date":"2015-01-29T08:04:46","date_gmt":"2015-01-29T13:04:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=67332"},"modified":"2015-01-29T08:40:05","modified_gmt":"2015-01-29T13:40:05","slug":"eurusd-fomc-rather-neutral-than-hawkish-buy-eur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/01\/eurusd-fomc-rather-neutral-than-hawkish-buy-eur\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD: FOMC Rather Neutral Than Hawkish, Buy EUR"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2905976404\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">January 29, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>Analysis by: <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>GROWTHACES.COM <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\">Forex Trading Strategies<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Trading Positions:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD trading strategy: <\/strong>long at 1.1300, target 1.1550, stop-loss 1.1240<\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP\/USD trading strategy<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong>long at 1.5080, target 1.5300, stop-loss 1.5100<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CHF trading strategy: <\/strong>long at 0.9160, target 0.9400, stop-loss 0.9090<\/p><div id=\"inves-378516120\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><strong>EUR\/GBP trading strategy: <\/strong>long at 0.7470, target 0.7650, stop-loss 0.7390<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/CHF trading strategy: <\/strong>long at 1.0160, target 1.0650, stop-loss 1.0230<\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP\/JPY trading strategy: <\/strong>long at 179.00, target 182.00, stop-loss 177.55<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pending Orders:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY trading strategy: <\/strong>sell at 119.20, if filled target 116.60, stop-loss 120.00<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CAD trading strategy: <\/strong>buy at 1.2400, if filled target 1.2720, stop-loss 1.2320<\/p>\n<p>We encourage you to subscribe to our <a>forex newsletter<\/a> to receive our <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\">daily forex analysis and trading strategies<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD: FOMC Rather Neutral Than Hawkish, Buy EUR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(long again for 1.1550)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li>The meeting of the Federal Reserve ended yesterday. <strong>The Fed reiterated that it would be \u201cpatient\u201d in raising rates from record lows.<\/strong> <strong>The Fed said that inflation would likely decline further before starting to rise gradually. <\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The contracts now show that traders see a 66% chance that the first Fed rate hike will come in October 2015.<\/li>\n<li>European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said the quantitative easing programme that was announced last week would end \u201conly once we get a strong sense that inflation is converging towards 2%\u201d. Another ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said Euro zone money supply for December is showing some positive signs as credit to companies rose. He also noted the fall in prices of credit to companies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Traders interpreted yesterday\u2019s Fed\u2019s statement as hawkish and the EUR\/USD fell after its release to today\u2019s low of 1.1263. In our opinion such a reaction was unjustified \u2013 the statement was as widely expected, neither dovish nor hawkish, and we still see more and more reasons to expect that Fed\u2019s hike will take place later than sooner<\/strong> (low inflation, strong USD, more dovish FOMC composition in 2015 than in 2014).<\/li>\n<li>A fall in the EUR\/USD was short-lived and now it is back above 1.1300. We expect the EUR\/USD to rise in the short and medium term.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Our EUR\/USD long reached its stop-loss yesterday at 1.1280, but we took small profit (1.1220-1.1280). We got long again today at 1.1300 and keep our previous target of 1.1550.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/sites\/default\/files\/eurusd_29012015.png\" alt=\"EUR\/USD Forex Daily Chart\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 1.1384 (high Jan 28), 1.1412 (10-dma), 1.1423 (high Jan 27)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 1.1263 (low Jan 29), 1.1224 (low Jan 27), 1.1098 (low Jan 26)<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY: Watch Today\u2019s Macro Data<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(looking to get short on upticks)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that while consumer inflation may slow in the short-term due to slumping oil prices, it will accelerate in the latter half of the next fiscal year beginning in April <\/strong>as companies raise wages and an economic recovery pushes up prices. Kuroda repeated that Japan is likely to hit the BOJ\u2019s price target \u201cin a period centering (in or around) fiscal 2015\u2033 and that there was no change to the bank\u2019s stance of aiming to achieve its price goal in roughly two years.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Japan\u2019s retail sales rose 0.2% yoy in December, much weaker than the median forecast for 0.9% gain.<\/strong> Other important macroeconomic releases are scheduled for today (CPI, unemployment rate at 23:30 GMT and industrial output at 23:50 GMT).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Our USD\/JPY trading strategy remains unchanged. We are looking to sell USD\/JPY at 119.20<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/sites\/default\/files\/usdjpy_29012015.png\" alt=\"USD\/JPY Forex Daily Chart\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 118.28 (high Jan 28), 118.66 (high Jan 27), 118.81 (high Jan 23)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 117.40 (session low Jan 29), 117.34 (low Jan 27), 117.26 (low Jan 26)<\/p>\n<p><strong>NZD\/USD: The RBNZ Left The Door Open To A Rate Cut<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(we stay sideways, waiting for the RBA meeting next week)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>New Zealand\u2019s central bank held its official interest rate at 3.5% as widely expected<\/strong>, and said it expected to leave it unchanged \u201cfor some time\u201d because of low inflation. The bank said: \u201cFuture interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ahead of the announcement, markets had priced a slightly chance of a 25 bps cut<\/strong> following weaker than expected local inflation data, a surprise rate cut by Canada\u2019s central bank and quantitative easing measures from the European Central Bank last week.<\/li>\n<li>The central bank believes the NZD exchange rate remains unjustified in terms of current economic conditions, particularly export prices, and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand\u2019s long-term economic fundamentals. <strong>The central bank expects to see a further significant depreciation of the NZD.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Although the RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged against the expectations of some market participants for a rate cut, the NZD\/USD fell strongly after the announcement. The central bank left the door open to a possible easing in the future, which made investors sell the NZD.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>New Zealand\u2019s annual trade deficit widened in December to NZD 159 million vs. the median forecast NZD 26 million<\/strong>. Exports rose 9.4% mom, but were down 6.9% yoy as the slide in dairy exports more than offset a rise in meat sales. Imports rose 7.6% yoy with increased purchases of capital goods, including several large aircraft for Air New Zealand, and heavy machinery, leading the growth. The government agency said if the import of big ticket items, such as the aircraft, was excluded the annual deficit would have narrowed to NZD 137 million.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fonterra has reduced its milk volume forecast for the 2014-15 season to 1,532 million kgMS<\/strong>, reflecting the impact of dry weather on production in recent weeks. The new forecast is 3.3% lower than the 1,584 million kgMS collected last season.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The NZD\/USD broke below 0.7300 today and is testing levels last seen in March 2011. The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for next week \u2013 expectations for dovish statement may weigh on the NZD and the AUD in the coming days<\/strong>. However, medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and we will be hunting for lower levels to get long.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/sites\/default\/files\/nzdusd_29012015.png\" alt=\"NZD\/USD Forex Daily Chart\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 0.7358 (hourly high Jan 29), 0.7495 (high Jan 28), 0.7522 (10-dma)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 0.7200 (psychological level), 0.7125 (monthly low Mar, 2011), 0.7000 (psychological level)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Analysis by: <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis by: http:\/\/growthaces.com GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies: Trading Positions: EUR\/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1300, target 1.1550, stop-loss 1.1240 GBP\/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5080, target 1.5300, stop-loss 1.5100 USD\/CHF trading strategy: long at 0.9160, target 0.9400, stop-loss 0.9090 EUR\/GBP trading strategy: long at 0.7470, target 0.7650, stop-loss 0.7390 EUR\/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0160, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}