{"id":67022,"date":"2015-01-23T16:53:32","date_gmt":"2015-01-23T21:53:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=67022"},"modified":"2015-01-23T16:53:32","modified_gmt":"2015-01-23T21:53:32","slug":"debt-and-deflation-three-financial-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/01\/debt-and-deflation-three-financial-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-447344022\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">January 23, 2015<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h2 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">There&#8217;s more to deflation than falling prices <\/span><\/h2>\n<h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Editor&#8217;s note: You&#8217;ll find the text version of the story below the video. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-US-Markets-2015-edition.aspx?code=99619%26articleid=5296\">Join Elliott Wave International&#8217;s free <i>State of the U.S. Markets<\/i> online conference<\/a> to get prepared for the major moves in U.S. stocks, commodities, gold, USD and more for 2015 and beyond. Register now and get instant access to a free video presentation from market legend Robert Prechter and regular email updates with insights from our most recent publications and presentations from our key analysts.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 620px;\">\n<p><!--FEATURED VIDEO--><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/HEeIbCn5SBg?modestbranding=1&amp;rel=0&amp;showinfo=0\" width=\"620\" height=\"380\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><!--\/\/FEATURED VIDEO--><!--CTA--><\/p>\n<div style=\"font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; color: #ffffff; text-align: center; background-color: #000000; padding: 10px;\">Get insights on the economy and investing for 2015 and beyond.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-US-Markets-2015-edition.aspx?code=99619%26articleid=5296\"><span style=\"color: #06c;\">Join our free, online State of the U.S. Markets Conference.<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<p><!--\/\/CTA--><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Inflation ruled from 1933 to 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Yet in the just-published <i>Elliott Wave Theorist<\/i>, Bob Prechter&#8217;s headline says, &#8220;Deflation is Starting to Win.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at this chart from The Telegraph:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/image\/Ourdisinflationaryworld.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"420\" height=\"335\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230; the number of countries experiencing &#8216;lowflation&#8217; has been steadily rising from 2011 (blue line). The eurozone tipped into outright deflation in December, with Germany, Britain and the US also seeing prices rise at near record lows.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\">The Telegraph, January 14<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But as Prechter explains, falling prices are an <b>effect<\/b> of deflation.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Deflation is <i>not <\/i>a period of generally falling prices; it is a period of <i>contraction in the total amount of money plus credit. <\/i>Falling prices in an environment of stable money is indeed a good thing. In fact, in a real-money system, it is <i>the norm<\/i>, because technology makes things cheaper to produce. But when debt expands faster than production, it becomes overblown, then wiped out, and prices rise and fall in response.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><i>The Elliott Wave Theorist<\/i>, January 2015<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So a major debt buildup is a precondition of deflation. Do we see this today? The third edition of <i>Conquer the Crash<\/i> shows the answer.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2803383749\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/image\/CTC2014_FigF_5.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"420\" height=\"366\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Total dollar-denominated debt has skyrocketed since 1990. The upward trend turned slightly down during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, but has since crept higher.<\/p>\n<p>How fast and how far can this nearly $60 trillion in debt dwindle?<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s instructive to review the collapse of the 1920s credit bubble.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/freeupdates\/image\/MolehilltoMountain1929.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"440\" height=\"306\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On the left side of the chart, note how debt deflation needed nearly a <b>decade<\/b> to unwind.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s mountain of debt is far higher than in 1929, yet our indicators suggest that the next debt deflation could unfold much more rapidly.<\/p>\n<p>The third edition of <i>Conquer the Crash<\/i> provides 157 forecasts. Here are three:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Real estate values will begin to fall again, ultimately more than they did in the 1930s.<\/li>\n<li>Hedge funds, mutual funds, money-market funds, managed accounts and brokerage accounts will go out of favor &#8212; many will go out of existence.<\/li>\n<li>Financial corporations previously bailed out by the Fed and the U.S. government will fail again, as will new ones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<table class=\"body\" style=\"border: solid 5px #EAEAEA; padding: 10px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-US-Markets-2015-edition.aspx?code=99619%26articleid=5296\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/images\/club\/web_ads\/7047-pr-usmarkets.png\" alt=\"State of the U.S. Markets Conference\" width=\"90\" height=\"159\" align=\"left\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"5\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-US-Markets-2015-edition.aspx?code=99619%26articleid=5296\">Join Elliott Wave International&#8217;s free <i>State of the U.S. Markets<\/i> online conference<\/a> to get prepared for the major moves in U.S. stocks, commodities, gold, USD and more for 2015 and beyond.<\/h3>\n<p>Register now and you can instant access to a free video presentation from market legend Robert Prechter and regular email updates with insights from our most recent publications and presentations from our key analysts. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/club\/State-of-the-US-Markets-2015-edition.aspx?code=99619%26articleid=5296\">Join us now &#8212; it&#8217;s free.<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div>\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\"><em>This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa477&amp;dy=aa012215&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/freeupdates\/archives\/2015\/01\/20\/Debt-and-Deflation-Three-Financial-Forecasts.aspx#axzz3PZDaeXai\"><strong>Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world&#8217;s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s more to deflation than falling prices By Elliott Wave International Editor&#8217;s note: You&#8217;ll find the text version of the story below the video. Join Elliott Wave International&#8217;s free State of the U.S. Markets online conference to get prepared for the major moves in U.S. stocks, commodities, gold, USD and more for 2015 and beyond. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}