{"id":64691,"date":"2014-12-04T07:29:00","date_gmt":"2014-12-04T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=64691"},"modified":"2014-12-04T07:47:51","modified_gmt":"2014-12-04T12:47:51","slug":"eurusd-how-to-trade-ahead-of-the-ecb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2014\/12\/eurusd-how-to-trade-ahead-of-the-ecb\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD: How To Trade Ahead Of The ECB?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2128127980\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">December 4, 2014<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD:<\/strong> short at 1.2480, target 1.2180, stop-loss 1.2360<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY:<\/strong> long at 119.90, target 121.00, stop-loss 119.50 (we got long at 119.90 today)<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CHF:<\/strong> long at 0.9600, target 0.9880, stop-loss 0.9730<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/CHF:<\/strong>long at 1.2025, target 1.2095, stop-loss 1.1995<\/p><div id=\"inves-3733393403\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><strong>GROWTHACES.COM Pending Orders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CAD:<\/strong> buy at 1.1330, target 1.1460, stop-loss 1.1280<\/p>\n<p>We encourage you to visit our <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">website<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a> and subscribe to our newsletter to receive trading positions summary for major pairs and crosses.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/USD: How To Trade Ahead Of The ECB?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(stay short, target lowered to 1.2180)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>The European Central Bank announces its decision at 12:45 GMT.<\/strong> The rates are widely expected to remain on hold. <strong>The press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled for 13:30 GMT.<\/strong> The conference is likely to be one of the most important event for traders in recent months. Mario Draghi has been preparing the market for some hints on further monetary stimulus at this meeting. It is widely expected that the ECB will cut its GDP and CPI projections. The downward adjustment to the CPI forecasts is likely to be energy-driven and results also from already low starting point.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/12\/4\/saupload_ez_rates_04122014.png\" alt=\"Euro zone Inflation and ECB Rates\" \/><\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>What is Mario Draghi likely to do today?<\/strong> Draghi is likely to turn the green light on for non-financial corporate bond purchases in the first quarter 2015. We may also get an easing of TLTRO terms and conditions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>What is Mario Draghi unlikely to do today<\/strong>? Draghi may suggest today the readiness of the central bank to sovereign purchases (following recent rhetoric of ECB\u2019s Constancio), however <strong>the probability that sovereign quantitative easing is announced today is very low<\/strong>. In our opinion the bar for full-blown quantitative easing is still higher than assessed by the market. We should know that <strong>purchases of government bonds is the ECB\u2019s last resort. It is too early for the ECB to pull the trigger.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>How to trade ahead of the ECB?<\/strong> It is a difficult question. One thing is for sure, the reaction of the rate will be strong and depends on how many details on further monetary easing Mario Draghi will reveal. We should remind however that the market has already priced in \u201cdovish\u201d Draghi today and if he is not \u201cdovish\u201d enough we will see some profit taking on EUR-selling positions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Our trading strategy ahead of today\u2019s ECB meeting is to stay short. We have lowered the target of our EUR\/USD short to 1.2180,<\/strong> slightly above significant support level at 1.2167 (low Aug 3, 2012), but below another strong support at 1.2256 (low Aug 16, 2012). <strong>We have lowered our stop-loss level to 1.2360.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/12\/4\/saupload_eurusd_04122014.png\" alt=\"EUR\/USD Daily Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 1.2390 (high Dec 3), 1.2419 (low Dec 1), 1.2449 (21-dma)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 1.2295 (low Aug 20, 2012), 1.2288 (low Aug 17, 2012), 1.2256 (low Aug 16, 2012)<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CAD: Loonie Stronger On More Hawkish Central Bank<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(buy at 1.1330)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>The Bank of Canada kept its main policy rate at 1.00% yesterday, as widely expected<\/strong>. The bank\u2019s statement was seen as slightly more optimistic than recent communiques. In the opinion of the monetary authorities Canada\u2019s economic recovery is broadening and stronger exports were beginning to be reflected in increased business investment and employment. The bank said lower oil prices could cut inflation more than expected.<\/li>\n<li>In our opinion the BOC statement was balanced, but seen as more hawkish by the market. <strong>Traders are looking ahead to today\u2019s Ivey PMI reading and Friday\u2019s jobs reports (U.S. and Canadian).<\/strong> Our forecast for the Canadian employment number is close to the market consensus of +5k.<\/li>\n<li>The CAD outperformed nearly all its major counterparts on Wednesday. The USD\/CAD fell to 1.1341 today. <strong>Our bid is waiting at 1.1330. If filled the target is 1.1460.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/12\/4\/saupload_eurusd_04122014.png\" alt=\"USD\/CAD Daily Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 1.1418 (session high Dec 3), 1.1425 (high Dec 2), 1.1459 (high Dec 1)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 1.1341 (session low Dec 4), 1.1319 (low Dec 2), 1.1314 (low Dec 1)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.<\/p>\n<p>We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a> to get daily analysis for forex traders. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> we give our best to you \u2013 always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Article by http:\/\/growthaces.com GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions EUR\/USD: short at 1.2480, target 1.2180, stop-loss 1.2360 USD\/JPY: long at 119.90, target 121.00, stop-loss 119.50 (we got long at 119.90 today) USD\/CHF: long at 0.9600, target 0.9880, stop-loss 0.9730 EUR\/CHF:long at 1.2025, target 1.2095, stop-loss 1.1995 GROWTHACES.COM Pending Orders USD\/CAD: buy at 1.1330, target 1.1460, stop-loss 1.1280 We [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64691","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64691"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64691\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64691"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64691"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64691"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}