{"id":64220,"date":"2014-11-25T07:25:45","date_gmt":"2014-11-25T12:25:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=64220"},"modified":"2014-11-25T07:29:25","modified_gmt":"2014-11-25T12:29:25","slug":"gbpusd-boe-hawks-are-getting-stronger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2014\/11\/gbpusd-boe-hawks-are-getting-stronger\/","title":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD: BOE Hawks Are Getting Stronger"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1323466936\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 25, 2014<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>Article by <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\" target=\"_blank\">growthaces.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY:<\/strong> long at 117.50, target 119.80, stop-loss 116.60<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/CHF:<\/strong> long at 0.9560, target 0.9760, stop-loss 0.9610<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/CHF:<\/strong> long at 1.2025, target 1.2095, stop-loss 1.1995<\/p>\n<p><strong>EUR\/GBP:<\/strong> short at 0.7990, target 0.7840, stop-loss 0.7980<\/p><div id=\"inves-4271899342\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><strong>AUD\/JPY<\/strong>: long at 101.20, target 102.80, stop-loss 100.50<\/p>\n<p>We encourage you to visit our <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">website<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a> and subscribe to our newsletter to receive trading positions summary for major pairs and crosses.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>USD\/JPY: BOJ\u2019s Minutes Triggered Profit-Taking On USD\/JPY Longs<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(we stay long, the target is 119.80)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>The Bank of Japan released minutes of an October 31 meeting<\/strong>. The BOJ shocked investors at that meeting by expanding its quantitative easing, increasing annual government debt purchases to JPY 80 trillion from JPY 50 trillion.<\/li>\n<li>The minutes showed that some <strong>Bank of Japan board members expressed concern<\/strong> that expanding the central bank\u2019s quantitative easing could increase <strong>the risk that it will be seen as financing the government deficit<\/strong>. <strong>On the other hand, many members<\/strong> pointed out that the decline in oil prices, weak developments in demand following the consumption tax hike, had been generating <strong>downward pressure on prices in the short-term<\/strong>. In the opinion of those members there was a significant <strong>risk that<\/strong> <strong>conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed.<\/strong> The minutes also showed that BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda proposed expanding debt and risk asset purchases to maintain the central bank\u2019s commitment to reaching its 2% inflation target next year.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda<\/strong> said today that while recent JPY depreciation is positive for exporters, it hurts households as well as small firms and non-manufacturers through increases in import costs. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said <strong>the central bank is ready to expand stimulus further to meet its price goal.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso<\/strong> said the BOJ\u2019s decision to expand its quantitative easing was intended to express its strong commitment to its price target. He added <strong>the central bank is buying government debt in a flexible manner to compress yields across the yield curve.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Japan\u2019s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) said its holdings of domestic government bonds fell to 48.39% in September<\/strong> down from 51.91% at the end of June, highlighting how aggressively the fund <strong>is shifting to riskier assets<\/strong>. The GPIF on October 31 slashed its government bonds allocation target to 35% from 60%, while roughly doubling the targets for foreign and domestic shares to 25% each.<\/li>\n<li>The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said Japan\u2019s government\u2019s decision to delay a sales tax increase scheduled for next year will help growth, but it also means the government will not meet its deficit reduction target for fiscal 2015. In the opinion of the OECD Japan needs a credible plan to reduce its debt to contain the risk that the Bank of Japan\u2019s quantitative easing could cause inflation expectations to spike.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The USD\/JPY reached a day\u2019s high at 118.59 but fell back below 118.00 soon after the release of the central bank\u2019s minutes.<\/strong> The information about GPIF\u2019s holdings supported the USD\/JPY. The rate went back above 118.00 in the European session.<\/li>\n<li><strong>We stay USD\/JPY long. Our target is 119.80.<\/strong> The nearest support is today\u2019s session low at 117.69 and the resistance level is today\u2019s session high at 118.59.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/11\/25\/saupload_usdjpy_25112014.png\" alt=\"USD\/JPY Daily Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 118.59 (session high Nov 25), 118.98 (high Nov 20), 119.00 (psychological level)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 117.69 (session low Nov 25), 117.58 (low Nov 24), 117.36 (session low Nov 21)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>GBP\/USD: BOE Hawks Are Getting Stronger<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(sell at 1.5810)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li><strong>Kristin<\/strong> <strong>Forbes<\/strong> who is among seven members of the nine-strong <strong>Monetary Policy Committee<\/strong> who voting to keep interest rates unchanged told lawmakers in Britain\u2019s parliament that <strong>some recent international economic data had been stronger than in the baseline forecast.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>BoE Governor Mark Carney, speaking at the same session of parliament\u2019s Treasury Committee, said the global economic outlook had deteriorated and geopolitical risks had increased. Another member of the Monetary Policy Committee who has voted against a rate hike, Jon Cunliffe, said he was mostly worried about the risk of Britain\u2019s inflation rate falling further from a nearly five-year low in October. Ian McCafferty, one of the two MPC members who have voted for a rate hike since August, stuck to his view that inflation pressures could rise as the economy grows.<\/li>\n<li>We see one additional BoE member is leaning toward the hawks. <strong>Kristin Forbes may join McCafferty and Weale early next year and vote to raise interest rates. There is a strong chance that the BoE MPC vote will go from 7-2 to 6-3.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>The GBP\/USD fell slightly after BOE testimony. The market focused mainly on hawkish comments from Forbes. <strong>In the opinion of GrowthAces.com<\/strong> t<strong>he outlook for the GBP\/USD is still bearish as the BOE is now seen lagging Fed in raising rates. However, the GBP is likely to strengthen against the EUR, which is supportive for our EUR\/GBP short.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/11\/25\/saupload_gbpusd_25112014.png\" alt=\"GBP\/USD Daily Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 1.5707 (hourly high Nov 25), 1.5715 (high Nov 24), 1.5737 (high Nov 20)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 1.5630 (low Nov 24), 1.5626 (low Nov 21), 1.5590 (low Nov 19)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>AUD\/USD Fell Significantly After RBA Sharpened Its Rhetoric<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(stay sideways)<\/p>\n<ul type=\"disc\">\n<li>Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said a further drop in the AUD would help support economic growth. He said the lofty level of the AUD led to concerns that wages in Australia were too high to be competitive.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The AUD\/USD fell to a four-year low of 0.8524<\/strong> <strong>after Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said the currency was overvalued.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>In the opinion of GrowthAces.com no positions on the AUD\/USD are justified from the risk\/reward perspective at the moment. We got long on the AUD\/JPY at 101.20<\/strong>, in line with our strategy. The target is 102.80. We set the stop-loss at 100.50.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2014\/11\/25\/saupload_audusd_25112014.png\" alt=\"AUD\/USD Daily Chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Significant technical analysis\u2019 levels:<\/p>\n<p>Resistance: 118.59 (session high Nov 25), 118.98 (high Nov 20), 119.00 (psychological level)<\/p>\n<p>Support: 117.69 (session low Nov 25), 117.58 (low Nov 24), 117.36 (session low Nov 21)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> is an independent macroeconomic research consultancy for traders. We offer you daily forex analysis with forex trading signals. The service covers forex forecasts and signals for following currencies: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, NZD as well as emerging markets. Our subscribers should expect to receive: forex trading strategies, latest price changes, support and resistance levels, buy and sell forex signals and early heads-up about the potential fx trading opportunities. <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> offers also daily macroeconomic fundamental analysis that enables you to see fundamental changes on forex market. We provide in-depth analysis of economic indicators resulting from knowledge, experience, advanced statistics and cutting-edge quantitative tools.<\/p>\n<p>We encourage you to subscribe to our daily forex newsletter on <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/growthaces.com<\/a> to get daily analysis for forex traders. We intend that our consultancy should help you make better decisions. At <a href=\"http:\/\/growthaces.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">GrowthAces.com<\/a> we give our best to you \u2013 always greatest quality, usefulness and profitability.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Article by growthaces.com &nbsp; GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions USD\/JPY: long at 117.50, target 119.80, stop-loss 116.60 USD\/CHF: long at 0.9560, target 0.9760, stop-loss 0.9610 EUR\/CHF: long at 1.2025, target 1.2095, stop-loss 1.1995 EUR\/GBP: short at 0.7990, target 0.7840, stop-loss 0.7980 AUD\/JPY: long at 101.20, target 102.80, stop-loss 100.50 We encourage you to visit our website http:\/\/growthaces.com [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64220"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64220\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}