{"id":63868,"date":"2014-11-18T04:27:38","date_gmt":"2014-11-18T09:27:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=63868"},"modified":"2014-11-18T07:31:53","modified_gmt":"2014-11-18T12:31:53","slug":"whats-your-game-plan-this-holiday-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2014\/11\/whats-your-game-plan-this-holiday-season\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Your Game Plan This Holiday Season?"},"content":{"rendered":"
November 18, 2014<\/div>
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By WallStreetDaily.com<\/span><\/a> \"Holiday<\/p>\n

By Guest Contributor<\/a><\/p>\n

Back on October 16, with the markets down 6% in a month\u2026 hedge funds scurrying to lock in meager gains\u2026 and institutional investors wondering whether to run for the hills\u2026<\/p>\n

I told you not to panic. Instead, I suggested buying stocks<\/a> that had been unfairly beaten down.<\/p>\n

Well, I hope you listened!<\/p>\n

By doing so, you could have enjoyed the largest uptick of the year \u2013 around 10% in just a month!<\/p>

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In fact, that was the largest 30-day advance in the market since October of 2011. Who says October is a month of fear in the markets?<\/p>\n

But what should you do now that the holiday shopping season is almost upon us?<\/p>\n

That ultimately depends on your current risk tolerance.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re a long-term investor who bought a stock to fund retirement, hold tight. Over the next few years, you\u2019ll be very happy with the entry price of your stock. And I don\u2019t think prices are going to go back to those mid-October lows anytime soon.<\/p>\n

However, short-term traders should take this opportunity to take some profits. Here\u2019s why\u2026<\/p>\n

Short-Term Trouble Brewing in Retail<\/h2>\n

While investors are celebrating a hopeful retail sales report, I think they\u2019re setting themselves up for disappointment.<\/p>\n

Yes, cheaper gas and increasing wages are putting additional dollars in consumers\u2019 pockets. And one of my favorite economic indicators, the \u201cquit rate<\/a>,\u201d was back above 2% last month for the first time since the recession. (That\u2019s a very good sign that the economy may be regaining the \u201canimal spirits\u201d that can power strong growth.)<\/p>\n

The problem is, profits may be more difficult to come by than growth \u2013 particularly during the holiday season.<\/p>\n

Battered consumers have spent the last few years becoming very savvy shoppers. Internet price discovery and high promotions from troubled retailers have helped Americans get rock-bottom prices for more and more products.<\/p>\n

Retailers are hopeful that consumers with a little more money in their pockets won\u2019t need the extreme discounting of the last several years to make their purchases. But I\u2019m convinced that the presence of smart shoppers is a secular trend that will survive the economic recovery just fine.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, you can expect to see retailers complain about the \u201cshort\u201d holiday season and the weather \u2013 and then begin to initiate massive discounting to make their sales numbers.<\/p>\n

Of course, this coming game of chicken (which the retailers will probably lose), doesn\u2019t mean that the economy or the market is going to collapse.<\/p>\n

However, it does<\/em> mean that 1) there are few catalysts that can move the market upward for the next couple of months, and 2) investors will increasingly focus on risks.<\/p>\n

With not a lot of upside \u2013 and some possibility of a downside \u2013 in the cards, traders should take some of the money they\u2019ve made in the last month and wait for those outstanding online and in-store sales.<\/p>\n

Good investing,<\/p>\n

Greg Miller<\/p>\n

The post What\u2019s Your Game Plan This Holiday Season?<\/a> appeared first on Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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By WallStreetDaily.com By Guest Contributor Back on October 16, with the markets down 6% in a month\u2026 hedge funds scurrying to lock in meager gains\u2026 and institutional investors wondering whether to run for the hills\u2026 I told you not to panic. Instead, I suggested buying stocks that had been unfairly beaten down. Well, I hope […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63868"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63868\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}