{"id":62132,"date":"2014-10-18T17:40:53","date_gmt":"2014-10-18T21:40:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=62132"},"modified":"2014-10-18T17:40:53","modified_gmt":"2014-10-18T21:40:53","slug":"how-to-invest-in-a-difficult-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2014\/10\/how-to-invest-in-a-difficult-market\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Invest in a Difficult Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2817815876\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">October 18, 2014<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h4><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Casey Research<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Many experts hold dim views of the current state of the US economy\u2014but what\u2019s a prudent investor to do to make a profit? Find out what the blue-ribbon faculty of economists and investment pros at the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit thought.<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/trk.caseyresearch.com\/f\/?content_id=1034&amp;code=PIP&amp;editorial=how-to-invest-in-a-difficult-market\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Lacy Hunt<\/strong>, senior executive VP of Hoisington Investment Management Company and former chief economist at the Dallas Fed, says the main reason that the global economy continues to falter is that all countries borrow too much and save too little.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c275% total debt to GDP is the critical threshold. Every world economy of importance is above that level and moving higher.\u201d He finds today\u2019s monetary policy \u201cimpotent.\u201d The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are trying to solve the problem of too much debt by borrowing more, which has short-term benefits, but will be disastrous long term.<\/p>\n<p>Too much borrowing, says Hunt, guarantees that we\u2019ll get more asset bubbles. Because the United States is the least indebted of the three countries, it will continue to outperform Japan and Europe.<\/p>\n<p>He predicts that the dollar will rise against other major currencies and that inflation, as well as interest rates, will remain low.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Christian Menegatti<\/strong>, managing director of economic research at Roubini Global Economics, is convinced that we\u2019re at the end of a supercycle and won\u2019t see a normalization of monetary policy for quite some time.<\/p><div id=\"inves-3643767298\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Like Lacy Hunt, Menegatti predicts that global interest rates will stay low. On the positive side, he doesn\u2019t believe that we will see secular stagnation; in other words, a full \u201cJapanification\u201d of the US is unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>The current economic recovery in the US is weaker than that in the 1930s, claims <strong>Worth Wray<\/strong>, chief strategist at Mauldin Economics. He says while nominal interest rates are the lowest they&#8217;ve ever been, real rates could go lower.<\/p>\n<p>When the Fed\u2019s QE3 is over, he predicts that growth will weaken and rates will fall further. \u201cWithout another dose of stimulus, the US will likely slide into recession.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Taking a global view, he thinks that China\u2019s slowdown could cause the Australian housing bubble to pop, and that commodity prices will drop over the next few years, which will hurt resource-rich countries like Australia, Norway, and Canada.<\/p>\n<p>He recommends to buy US Treasuries and to diversify across asset classes that thrive in different economic environments to strengthen your portfolio against a possible crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Diversification is also the number-one tip from the expert panel on \u201cBuilding a Crisis-Proof Portfolio\u201d at the Casey Summit, consisting of <strong>Worth Wray<\/strong> and Casey editors <strong>Alex Daley<\/strong>, <strong>Terry Coxon<\/strong>,<strong> Dan Steinhart<\/strong>, and <strong>Dennis Miller<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>They say a crisis can take one of two forms:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>A \u201cstandard\u201d crisis, where stocks crash but the financial system remains intact. In that scenario, you want to own US government bonds because they\u2019ll retain their safe-haven properties.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li value=\"2\">A \u201creset,\u201d meaning a complete implosion of the global financial system. Government bonds won\u2019t save you from that type of crisis. Instead, you\u2019d want to own real, non-financial assets, such as physical gold and silver, as well as farmland and other real estate.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>For \u201cFuture Tech You Can Profit from Now,\u201d <strong>Alex Daley<\/strong>, chief technology investment strategist at Casey Research, suggests to look for companies that offer game-changing benefits or savings and that focus on \u201cwhere businesses and people spend their time and money,\u201d like OpenTable or Zillow.<\/p>\n<p>Daley recommends three companies with great upside from his <em>Casey Extraordinary Technology<\/em> portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>He says there\u2019s no need to worry about the broader market if you can find great companies with consistent growth. \u201cLook for 40% revenue growth over the same quarter last year; that\u2019s the magic number.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>To get all of Alex Daley\u2019s stock picks (and those of the other speakers), as well as every single presentation of the Summit, order your 26+-hour <em>Summit Audio Collection<\/em> now. It\u2019s available in CD and\/or MP3 format. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ubix3-2\/PIP\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Learn more here.<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"xvMdV95u77zU\" style=\"clear: both;\">The article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ubri4-2\/PIP\" rel=\"permalink\">How to Invest in a Difficult Market<\/a> was originally published at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/ubrm5-2\/PIP\">caseyresearch.com<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Casey Research Many experts hold dim views of the current state of the US economy\u2014but what\u2019s a prudent investor to do to make a profit? Find out what the blue-ribbon faculty of economists and investment pros at the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit thought. Lacy Hunt, senior executive VP of Hoisington Investment Management [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62132\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}