{"id":174157,"date":"2020-07-29T15:32:14","date_gmt":"2020-07-29T19:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=174157"},"modified":"2020-07-29T08:39:36","modified_gmt":"2020-07-29T12:39:36","slug":"technical-patterns-future-expectations-and-more-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/07\/technical-patterns-future-expectations-and-more-part-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More \u2013 Part II"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 29, 2020<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders<\/u><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Continuing this multi-part research article, today we are going to explore some more immediate (shorter-term) technical setups.\u00a0 If you missed the first part of this research article, please take a minute to review it before continuing because there is quite a bit of information and related article links that are very important for you to understand this next article. You can view it here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the first part of this article, we discussed how our team evaluates a proper market perspective and how we build a consolidated narrative for our subscribers.\u00a0 Some times, it is not easy for us to build a suitable narrative or decide on risk factors as our team may not completely agree with one another.\u00a0 At times like this, we\u2019ll often decide that no action is better than taking any action at all.\u00a0 Generally, though, our team is able to adopt a consensus narrative related to portfolio allocation levels, general market trends and specific target trade setups for the next 5 to 10+ trading days.<\/p>\n

The Technical Traders services\u2019 primary objective is to protect assets while attempting to deliver success with trading signals that generate consistent profits.\u00a0 We care, very deeply, about our members and their success.\u00a0 Our team has a combined experience in the markets of over 55+ years, and have lived through various market and economic scenarios going back over 35+ years. We have also had the opportunity to learn from some of the best technicians and analysts on the planet.\u00a0 We publish our public research for two primary reasons: a) to assist our friends and followers, and b) to publically document our future calls and predictions \u2013 putting our necks on the line every time we publish anything to the general public.<\/p>\n

When we develop a narrative for our members, we internally discuss longer-term and shorter-term expectations as well as to identify concerns or risks that we see as evident in the markets or setups that are present today.\u00a0 As we suggested in Part I of this article<\/strong><\/a>, we don\u2019t try to over trade and are very selective in our trades. We also have processes in place to ensure we have found the right risk \/reward ratio prior to initiating new trades.\u00a0 If we miss a move \u2013 we won\u2019t chase it \u2013 there will always be other trades setting up for us to capture new profits for our members. We see some interesting events unfolding that will undoubtedly lead to some fantastic trades.<\/p>\n

Be sure to\u00a0opt-in to our free market trend signals<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0before closing this page so you don\u2019t miss our next special report!<\/p>

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PUT\/CALL RATIO SHOWS SELLERS LINING UP<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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The chart above highlighting the PUT\/CALL ratio suggests sellers are lining up near recent highs, expecting the markets to roll over as the Q2 earnings and data are released.\u00a0 It makes sense that the data could be somewhat bearish in nature given the potential destruction of earnings and revenues in Q2.\u00a0 It also makes sense that near recent highs, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have recently rolled into a sideways consolidation, that skilled traders would pull profits near these levels and initiate new Put Options trades to hedge any downside risks in the future.<\/p>\n

Gold and Silver recently fired a very large warning shot for anyone paying attention.\u00a0 The US Dollar has continued to weaken and Crude Oil may begin a new downside price trend if the economic data suggests a broader contraction in the US economy.\u00a0 What all this means is that skilled traders and others are losing their bullish bias in the markets and are starting to become protective \u2013 expecting some type of new trend to setup.<\/p>\n

Our researchers believe a downside price move targeting the $252 level on the SPY is not out of the question. Recall the $252 level is a price level that corresponds with economic expectations as of late 2017.\u00a0 These levels represent a fairly nominal price correction that would still be considered moderate bullish overall.\u00a0 Any deeper price move would indicate the markets are completely disconnected with future expectations for the rest of the year and possibly further out into the future.<\/p>\n

VIX BACK AT FEBRUARY FEAR LEVELS<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The VIX is trading at levels that indicate the level of fear in the markets has recovered to historically moderately high levels (near 25.00) \u2013 see the chart below.\u00a0 Volatility is still a major factor in the markets and any change in trend could be aggressive and violent \u2013 sending VIX above 40.00 again.\u00a0 We believe this new low level in the VIX is indicative of complacency in the markets and with the current bullish price trend.\u00a0 Complacency in the markets tends to lead to very aggressive price corrections.\u00a0 We believe skilled technical traders should adopt a very cautious stance going forward and protect open long positions exposed to risk.<\/p>\n

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If the markets begin to breakdown on the Q2 GDP and Consumer data that will be released on Thursday, July 30, 2020, then the VIX will begin to move dramatically higher. In this situation, stop levels just below the current market price levels will begin to become targets.\u00a0 We can also expect to experience a similar event as that of February 2020, a type of flash-crash where a -12 to -18% downside price move could happen over a matter of days \u2013 not weeks.<\/p>\n

Pay attention to what happens in the Transportation Index and with Crude Oil and Gold and Silver.\u00a0 Our researchers follow these as early warning triggers for what may come.\u00a0 Additionally, our cycle research suggests a bottom in the markets will likely form in 2022 to 2023 \u2013 thus we may have quite a bit of sideways or downside price action ahead of us before a true market bottom completes.\u00a0 At this point, in order for our cycle research to become valid, we would need to see a downside price move that substantiates the cycle predictions.<\/p>\n

Right now, the advice we continue to provide to our members is to be patient, protect your profits and assets, and prepare for more volatility and risks.\u00a0 This is not the time to play games with your capital and we strongly believe this is not the time to \u201cbuy the dips\u201d.\u00a0 A bigger price pattern is setting up in the markets and many traders simply ignore these broader technical patterns.\u00a0 You can read more about these types of patterns in one of our recent research posts that explains the selloff structure.<\/a><\/strong> You can also see why we think gold will break out<\/strong><\/a> and silver will go ballistic<\/strong><\/a> once the stock market bottoms.<\/p>\n

We hope you\u2019ve found this multi-part research article helpful and informative.\u00a0 Remember, read our research and determine if you like and agree with our conclusions.\u00a0 Even if you don\u2019t agree, pay attention to what we are suggesting.\u00a0 You never know, it might lead you to make a decision that could help you protect your assets, find a new opportunity or, at the very least, help to keep you better informed \u2013 and that is our ultimate goal.\u00a0 We put this effort into publishing these public research articles every day to help you stay ahead of the biggest moves in the markets.<\/p>\n

See the articles listed above and read them to learn more about how we see the future unfolding. We believe you won\u2019t find any better research or analysis anywhere on the web than what we offer and we urge you to take advantage of our member\/subscriber services when you are ready.\u00a0 The next 24 months are going to be really crazy \u2013 get ready for some really great opportunities.<\/p>\n

Get our\u00a0Active ETF Swing Trade Signals<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my\u00a0Passive Long-Term ETF\u00a0Investing Signals<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nChief Market Strategist
\nFounder of Technical Traders Ltd.<\/p>\n

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.\u00a0 It is provided for educational purposes only.\u00a0 Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers\/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.\u00a0 Visit our web site (TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong>) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders\u00a0 – Continuing this multi-part research article, today we are going to explore some more immediate (shorter-term) technical setups.\u00a0 If you missed the first part of this research article, please take a minute to review it before continuing because there is quite a bit of information and related article links that are very important […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-174157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":174160,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174157\/revisions\/174160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}