{"id":174128,"date":"2020-07-28T15:44:22","date_gmt":"2020-07-28T19:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=174128"},"modified":"2020-07-28T15:44:22","modified_gmt":"2020-07-28T19:44:22","slug":"technical-patterns-future-expectations-and-more-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/07\/technical-patterns-future-expectations-and-more-part-i\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More \u2013 Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 28, 2020<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders<\/u><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

– We get a lot of questions from individuals every week. Our research posts contain a lot of varied examples of Technical Analysis, Economic Data Points, Advanced Price Theory, and other more obscure analysis techniques.\u00a0 Yet, sometimes our readers want to know more \u2013 how do we read the tea leaves to try to adopt a consensus approach to trading, investing, and hedging the global markets at times like these?<\/p>\n

The easiest answer is that we are a team <\/em>of technical researchers and analysts.\u00a0 Every day we are watching our proprietary modeling systems, various market symbols, and technical\/price setups that occur throughout the globe.\u00a0 Because we specialize in US stocks, ETFs, and Futures, our concern is how the US market will react to these impulses.\u00a0 Having said that, we explore ideas about how capital will flow from one asset class to another over time as various rotations in the global market take place.<\/p>\n

Every week, we communicate different points of view and do so across different time frames which provides you with a full view of long and short term expectations and potential moves for stocks and commodities.<\/p>\n

Sometimes this can be confusing to follow if you don\u2019t understand the time horizon we are discussing. One article may be about a major double top in the stock market with long term bearish implications, and the next article about more upside potential in stocks as the stock market tries to fill the February price gap window. One is bearish, the other is bullish, both provide a ton of insight for a different type of trader and time horizon looking forward.<\/p>\n

The team is able to explore and identify any potential trade setup\/trigger we believe is important for our future success.\u00a0 Our team can identify short, intermediate, or longer-term setups in any symbol or market segment.\u00a0 We then discuss the potential for each setup\/trigger and attempt to validate the setup\/trigger using our proprietary technology.\u00a0 We focus on confirmed trade setups originating from a variety of proprietary technology solutions that are aligned with our researcher\u2019s general analysis.<\/p>

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This keeps our team honed in on what is really happening in the markets as we attempt to identify the \u201cBest Asset Now\u201d related to potential risk and profit.\u00a0 The one thing that many people don\u2019t understand is how much we discuss \u201cRISK\u201d.\u00a0 The first thing any of our researchers accomplish before they suggest a trade setup is a \u201cRisk Analysis\u201d related to the price structure and future expectations.\u00a0 Our researchers may think a certain symbol or asset class is the greatest trade of the year, but risk factors associated with general market conditions, recent support\/resistance levels, or volatility may disqualify that trade simply because we won\u2019t allow anything to take excessive risks for our members. Our view is \u201cthere will always be another trade setting up in the next two or three days\u201d.<\/p>\n

Before you continue, we suggest taking a moment to read some of our other \u201cbigger picture\u201d research posts on silver<\/strong>, gold, <\/strong>and the US markets<\/strong>. Be sure to\u00a0opt-in to our free market trend signals<\/a><\/strong> before closing this page so you don\u2019t miss our next special report!<\/p>\n

MARKET PERSPECTIVES<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We are sharing some of our most recent research with all of you to help you understand how we view different market perspectives and opportunities as triggers set up in the US stock market.\u00a0 We view some of these longer-term triggers as \u201cbigger waves\u201d that are setting up out in the ocean.\u00a0 When they hit the shore, they have the potential of disrupting things quite extensively and causing quite a bit of damage. But until they hit the shoreline, they are just big waves that are pending in the future.<\/p>\n

Our shorter-term systems help us navigate the smaller price rotations and are often what we fall back onto to confirm trade triggers.\u00a0 If the bigger wave suggest greater risk is a factor, then we\u2019ll adjust the targets and stops for our shorter-term triggers to help eliminate risk and turn the short-term trades into a\u00a0 \u201cscalping-type\u201d of trade.\u00a0 Quick in and out for 5% to 7% (or more) and then wait for the next setup.<\/p>\n

In a broader sense, we are simply navigating the seas and tides while attempting to identify the best opportunities for our members.\u00a0 We write about all types of technical and price pattern triggers \u2013 even economic data.\u00a0 Internally, we focus on technical patterns and setups that are generated by our proprietary trading\/modeling systems.\u00a0 So, when you read any of our public research posts, remember that internally we may be viewing things quite differently as the technical and modeling systems are only deployed for subscribers or members.<\/p>\n

MIRRORED 200 DAY MA SETUP<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This first example highlights what we believe is a very clear longer-term setup relating to the general market weakness across a broad segment of the US stock market.\u00a0 Back in February 2020, a similar type of pattern set up just before the February 24 collapse.\u00a0 Now, we have a bigger and broader divergence between the number of stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average levels while Bonds (TLT) is climbing higher.\u00a0 This, generally, warns that the markets are stalling and may settle into a downside price trend.<\/p>\n

Could the downside price trend be aggressive and volatile?\u00a0 You bet it could.\u00a0 But right now we know this \u201cbig wave\u201d is pending and we also know that risks seem rather high for a downside price correction given this technical pattern setup.<\/p>\n

BEARISH DIVERGENCE<\/strong><\/h4>\n
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This second chart highlights the Jobless Claims levels over the past 6+ months of 2020.\u00a0 The one thing we want to highlight is the moderate increase in the latest Jobless Claims level and how that may represent a \u201csecond wave\u201d of COVID-19 cases prompting additional closures\/shut-downs within the US economy in some states.\u00a0 The last thing this recovery effort needs right now is another wave of newly unemployed workers and this data could become a very real problem when you consider the spending, housing, mortgage, credit card, and other factors that are associated with \u201ca loss of income\u201d for any active consumer.\u00a0 There is a domino-process that is likely to take place if these workers are unable to find new jobs quickly.<\/p>\n

JOBLESS CLAIMS STARTING TO RISE AGAIN\u2026<\/strong><\/h4>\n
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Now, as we close out this first part of our Technical Patterns, Trading Perceptions, Future Expectations, and More research post, we want to ask you if you would do anything differently than we currently do to attempt to effectively trade and manage risk levels throughout these incredible times and price swings in the global markets?\u00a0 Remember, we actually called these incredible price moves back in July\/August 2019 (and earlier) with our Super-cycle research and other longer-term cycle analysis:<\/p>\n

July 24, 2019: THE BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

August 14, 2019: GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS MOVE TO KEEP THE PARTY ROLLING<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

August 28, 2019: PRECIOUS METALS ABOUT TO PULL A CRAZY IVAN<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Over the past 12 months, we\u2019ve effectively called many of the biggest market moves and trends \u2013 in some cases many months in advance.\u00a0 Our predictions related to precious metals have been highlighted on many other podcasts and segments.\u00a0 We consider it an honor to be included in other\u2019s interpretations and presentations \u2013 yet we also know the accuracy of our research is what really counts.<\/p>\n

This brings us back to the start of this post \u2013 our efforts in generating these free research posts is to help you understand what we are thinking along different time horizons to help you develop your own consensus outcome.\u00a0 We hope you are gaining real value from our efforts because we are not going to stop now \u2013 this is when you need us the most.\u00a0 2020 through 2024 are going to include some of the biggest price swings we\u2019ve seen in decades.<\/p>\n

Get our\u00a0Active ETF Swing Trade Signals<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or if you have any type of retirement account and are looking for signals when to own equities, bonds, or cash, be sure to become a member of my\u00a0Passive Long-Term ETF\u00a0Investing Signals<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0which we are about to issue a new signal for subscribers.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nChief Market Strategist
\nFounder of Technical Traders Ltd.<\/p>\n

NOTICE: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.\u00a0 It is provided for educational purposes only.\u00a0 Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers\/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.\u00a0 Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com<\/a>) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders\u00a0 – We get a lot of questions from individuals every week. Our research posts contain a lot of varied examples of Technical Analysis, Economic Data Points, Advanced Price Theory, and other more obscure analysis techniques.\u00a0 Yet, sometimes our readers want to know more \u2013 how do we read the tea leaves to try […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-174128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174128"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174128\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":174131,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174128\/revisions\/174131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}