{"id":172929,"date":"2020-06-29T09:30:37","date_gmt":"2020-06-29T13:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=172929"},"modified":"2020-06-29T09:27:58","modified_gmt":"2020-06-29T13:27:58","slug":"weekly-fundamental-bulletin-investors-eye-us-payrolls-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/06\/weekly-fundamental-bulletin-investors-eye-us-payrolls-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Fundamental Bulletin: Investors Eye US Payrolls Data"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 29, 2020<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Highlights<\/strong><\/h2>\n

US home sales fell by 9.7% in May<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The monthly home sales report from the United States saw a 9.7% decline in May. This came despite interest rates staying at record lows.<\/p>\n

Existing home sales fell by 3.91 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The declines continue after home sales hit a 13-year high in February this year.<\/p>\n

However, economists are confident that home sales in the coming months will start to rise again as lockdown restrictions ease in the US.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s business confidence improves<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Business sentiment in Germany saw a strong improvement for the month of June. This is backed up by business expectations amid easing lockdown restrictions.<\/p>\n

Data from the Ifo institute showed that Germany\u2019s business climate index rose for the fourth month in a row. In June, the index touched 86.2 points, rising from 79.7 in May. This was slightly revised higher from 79.5 as reported earlier.<\/p>

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Economists forecast an increase to 85.0. The data for June was the second strongest jump recorded in a month, according to the Ifo institute.<\/p>\n

RBNZ stays the course as interest rates & QE unchanged<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The Reserve bank of New Zealand held its monetary policy meeting last week. The central bank left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.25%. It also did not tweak its QE purchases, maintaining the status quo.<\/p>\n

The Reserve bank of New Zealand maintains its asset purchases at $60 billion NZD. Central bank officials said that they were ready to provide additional stimulus if needed, as well as expanding the size of its asset purchases.<\/p>\n

The RBNZ gave a fairly balanced view of its policy, but economists have ruled out negative interest rates.<\/p>\n

US Q1 GDP stays unchanged at -5.0%<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The second revised estimates to the first quarter GDP saw no major revisions. As a result, the US economy\u00a0contracted 5.0%<\/a>\u00a0in the first three months of the year. This comes after the US economy grew at a pace of 2.3% in 2019 and marked a 10th<\/sup>\u00a0consecutive year of growth.<\/p>\n

The market reaction was rather muted. This is because economists forecast that the second-quarter GDP decline will be much bigger than the first-quarter figures.<\/p>\n

Upcoming Economic Events<\/strong><\/h2>\n

China manufacturing PMI may ease for 3rd consecutive month<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The new week starts off with China releasing its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures. On the manufacturing front, expectations are for PMIs to show a decline for the third consecutive month. This comes after manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in March to 52.0 from 35.7 in February.<\/p>\n

However, since April, manufacturing activity is steadily on the decline. Forecasts for June indicate that manufacturing activity in China will fall to 50.4. Non-manufacturing services, on the other hand, are posting a steady increase. Forecasts show a soft print of 53.3.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s Tankan surveys set for a historic fall<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The latest manufacturing and non-manufacturing Tankan surveys from the BoJ will be coming up this week. Economists predict that the Tankan large manufacturing index will fall from -8 in the second quarter to -30 in the third quarter.<\/p>\n

The non-manufacturing index is also set to fall from +8 to -20. This would be the biggest decline in the index since 2009 but it reflects the current global economic state as well.<\/p>\n

ISM manufacturing PMI to improve in June<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Expectations are for manufacturing activity in the US, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management, to rise to 49.0 in June. While this is still below the 50-level on the index, it is nonetheless an improvement from 43.1 in May.<\/p>\n

Regional indicators paint a mixed picture, however. This casts some doubts on the ISM print. Still, some parts of the US have been in a recovery phase, but this is offset by other regions that have extended the lockdown.<\/p>\n

As a result, it might impact the ISM manufacturing activity during the month.<\/p>\n

US unemployment rate to show gradual improvement<\/strong><\/h3>\n

After the US unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, the trend has been lower. For June, the latest estimates show that the unemployment rate will continue to fall.<\/p>\n

Forecasts show a decline from 13.3% in May to 12.5% in June, marking the second month of declines. We can expect payrolls to show a headline print of three million jobs being added back to the economy during the month. However, wages are set to fall 0.5% on the month, extending on the one percent fall a month ago.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex Last Week\u2019s Highlights US home sales fell by 9.7% in May The monthly home sales report from the United States saw a 9.7% decline in May. This came despite interest rates staying at record lows. Existing home sales fell by 3.91 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, according to data from the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-172929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172929","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=172929"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172929\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":172935,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/172929\/revisions\/172935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=172929"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=172929"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=172929"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}