{"id":171675,"date":"2020-06-04T16:21:16","date_gmt":"2020-06-04T20:21:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=171675"},"modified":"2020-06-04T16:21:16","modified_gmt":"2020-06-04T20:21:16","slug":"russia-how-financial-complacency-morphed-into-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/06\/russia-how-financial-complacency-morphed-into-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia: How Financial “Complacency” Morphed into “Crisis”"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 4, 2020<\/div>
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By Elliott Wave International
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– It’s been a tough year for Russia financially.<\/p>\n

Of course, there’s been the big collapse in oil prices, plus — just like many other global stock indexes — Russian stocks are well off their highs.<\/p>\n

That’s quite in contrast to 2019, when the RTSI index, a U.S. dollar-based index of 50 Russian companies, climbed 29%.<\/p>\n

Shortly after registering that performance, Elliott Wave International’s January Global Market Perspective<\/em>, a monthly publication which covers 40-plus worldwide markets, showed this chart and said:<\/p>\n

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Complacency toward financial risk stands at unprecedented extremes.<\/p>\n

Our global analyst’s comment suggested that a change of trend was afoot, given that extremes in financial markets are akin to a rubber band that is stretched to the breaking point.<\/p>

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Well, here’s an update on the RTSI from the just-published June Global Market Perspective<\/em>. An EWI global analyst notes:<\/p>\n

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The RTSI index … did worse than Europe’s broader indexes, losing more than half of its value from February to March. The stunning crash was followed by [a] rally that has since retraced about 50% of the decline.<\/p>\n

In addition to stock prices being well off their highs, Russia’s economic output will contract at 6% this year and the jobless number is expected to double.<\/p>\n

Plus, in April, the government projected that the budget deficit will hit 4% of GDP.<\/p>\n

As the June Global Market Perspective<\/em> also notes:<\/p>\n

Russia’s last financial crisis in 2014-15 also came on the heels of a decline in oil prices, and the crisis culminated on December 15, 2014, when the ruble suddenly plummeted against the euro and dollar. … Russia is entering its current crisis from a much weaker financial position.<\/p>\n

So, does this mean that the rally in Russian stocks is nearly over, or might the RTSI index climb the proverbial “wall of worry”?<\/p>\n

Well, a March 27 Barron’s headline suggests that investors will eventually<\/strong> be rewarded:<\/p>\n

Russia’s Stocks Are a Buy Only for Very Patient Investors<\/p>\n

Elliott Wave International’s global analysts provide their own perspective on the big financial picture, yet they are also focused on what’s next<\/strong> for Russia financially and economically — as well as many other worldwide markets.<\/p>\n

Indeed, EWI has recently published the valuable, free resource: 5 Global Insights You Need to Watch.<\/a><\/p>\n

You see, EWI’s top 5 global experts share their latest forecasts for cryptocurrencies, crude oil, interest rates, deflation, and the futures of the European Union.<\/p>\n

The result is a 5-video series (plus, two quick reads) — all in just 13 minutes.<\/p>\n

And — you get it free with a fast Club EWI signup. Club EWI membership is also free.<\/p>\n

Follow this link to get started: 5 Global Insights You Need to Watch.<\/a><\/p>\n

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Russia: How Financial “Complacency” Morphed into “Crisis”<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Elliott Wave International – It’s been a tough year for Russia financially. Of course, there’s been the big collapse in oil prices, plus — just like many other global stock indexes — Russian stocks are well off their highs. That’s quite in contrast to 2019, when the RTSI index, a U.S. dollar-based index of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-171675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=171675"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":171676,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171675\/revisions\/171676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=171675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=171675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=171675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}