{"id":170090,"date":"2020-05-06T11:11:43","date_gmt":"2020-05-06T15:11:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=170090"},"modified":"2020-05-06T10:09:14","modified_gmt":"2020-05-06T14:09:14","slug":"technical-analysis-points-to-key-reversal-of-global-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/05\/technical-analysis-points-to-key-reversal-of-global-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Analysis Points To Key Reversal Of Global Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"
May 6, 2020<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently, we received a number of email messages and comments regarding our recent Bitcoin article<\/strong><\/a> and how we attempted to explain the market trend\/technical analysis.\u00a0 It appears we were not making our interpretation very clear for our friends and followers.\u00a0 This article should help to clear up our interpretation of the major market trends and our advanced technical analysis tools and utilities.<\/p>\n

As purely technical traders, there are certain things we want to make clear.\u00a0 First, we do pay attention to what is happening to the fundamentals and global economic data when it posts.\u00a0 We\u2019ve authored many previous articles stating our belief that \u201ccapital is like a living\/breathing entity which attempts to survive (generate ROI with little risk) in various global market environments\u201d.\u00a0 In order for us, as technical traders, to identify real opportunities for superior trades, we must be aware of what is happening in the \u201cenvironment\u201d that surrounds us.<\/p>\n

A perfect example is a recent collapse in oil.\u00a0 We continue to read articles of how thousands of traders believed super-low oil prices were a GIFT and these traders piled into long trades expecting oil to rebound higher.\u00a0 This happens when technical traders fail to understand the environment in which the instrument is trading within.\u00a0 At this time, the supply side for oil vastly outweighs the demand-side \u2013 so the environment is skewed towards much weaker price activity.\u00a0 The chance that any moderate price recovery would take place is minimal until the supply glut is diminished.<\/p>\n

One of the easiest ways to think of a truly technical trader is that we don\u2019t care if the price goes up or down, we just care that our technical triggers and indicators present clear opportunities that are superior to more traditional methods of trading.<\/p>\n

To accomplish this, we believe we must understand the environment in which we are trading and the technical conditions that are present within the charts.\u00a0 Technically, the price may be going up within a defined bearish\/downtrend. This does not mean the upside price move is a technically valid \u201ctrade trigger\u201d.\u00a0 The opposite may be true for a move down in a bullish trending market.\u00a0 Without proper confirmation of the overall technical bias, environment, and shorter-term technical triggers \u2013 one might as well throw a dart at a wall and hope for the best.<\/p>

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In our view, we issue many published research reports for our friends and followers to read and review every week.\u00a0 Our interpretation of the technical triggers, economic data, forward expectations, and other setups are designed to help you learn how we conduct our research and to help you find opportunities in the markets.\u00a0 Our members receive this same research and more \u2013 they receive our hand-selected trade triggers.\u00a0 These are the best technical setups\/trade triggers known as BAN Trades (Best Asset Now) so we can find that provide superior opportunities for skilled traders.<\/p>\n

Before you continue, be sure to\u00a0<\/em>opt-in to our free market trend signals<\/em><\/strong>
\nbefore closing this page, so you don\u2019t miss our next special report & signal!<\/em><\/p>\n

This chart, below, shows our historical results for the past 2.5 years.\u00a0 You\u2019ll notice that we do sometimes take losses \u2013 yes.\u00a0 You\u2019ll also notice the consistency of the profits \u2013 yes.\u00a0 We hope you\u2019ll also notice that we work very hard to make sure our member\u2019s success is the first priority in everything we do.<\/p>\n

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Now, back to technical analysis\u2026<\/p>\n

Our research team believes the markets have set up a massive downside price advance (creating a much deeper low that confirms Fibonacci price theory and aligns with our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs), which sets up a very unique technical pattern.\u00a0 Until the price is capable of establishing a series of new higher-high points through consecutive upside price advances AND until the Weekly and Monthly charts confirm a new high price breakout \u2013 technically speaking, we\u2019re still in a bearish price trend.<\/p>\n

Weekly S&P 500 (SPY) Chart<\/h3>\n

This Weekly SPY chart, below, shows you three key technical factors that tell us there is a greater risk of a breakdown in price than any upside price trend continuation\u2026<\/p>\n

A.\u00a0 <\/strong>The recent low\/bottom price level broke below the December 2018 low price level (new lower low).<\/p>\n

B.\u00a0 <\/strong>The GREEN ARC price level is a massive 1.618 Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that suggests massive resistance exists at this level.\u00a0 Price moving above this level then falling back below it suggests a \u201cscouting pattern\u201d type of event took place and FAILED.<\/p>\n

C.\u00a0<\/strong> Recent price activity has rallied from recent lows too, again, reconfirm the GREEN ARC resistance level.\u00a0 We believe this Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will present a major price ceiling as Q2 and Q3 economic data pushes forward \u2013 driving the price lower over time and eventually targeting the RED support level near $208 in July or August.<\/p>\n

You may remember that we\u2019ve been suggesting a bottom will not complete until sometime after July or August 2020 in previous research posts.\u00a0 Now you know where we derive these projections and expectations, we use technical analysis and our advanced predictive modeling tools to \u201csee into the future\u201d.\u00a0 Believe it or not, we\u2019ve already mapped out SPY price activity 10+ years into the future.<\/p>\n

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Weekly Transportation Index (TRAN) Chart<\/h3>\n

This TRAN Weekly chart also helps to confirm our technical analysis research.\u00a0 We are deploying the same types of technical analysis tools on all of these charts to show you how our research team attempts to identify trends and opportunities.\u00a0 You can see the heavy LIGHT RED Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc near the peak in February 2020.\u00a0 This Arc represents a massive price resistance channel.\u00a0 You may also notice the thinner ORANGE Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that touches recent lows?\u00a0 This arc acts as Support in its current form.<\/p>\n

Our proprietary Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System is drawing a CYAN projected target level from recent lows where the heavy CYAN line is displayed on this chart.\u00a0 Additionally, a previous BLUE target level is also displayed on this chart which originated from the recent PEAK in February 2020.\u00a0 Now, pay attention to where the TRAN price has found recent resistance and stalled\u2026\u00a0 RIGHT AT THOSE LEVELS.<\/p>\n

We believe the failure of the SPY and TRAN to move above the ARCs and Fibonacci price targets suggests a critical upward price trend failure.\u00a0 A failure of this nature will prompt a new downside price move in the near future as price must always attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows based on the Fibonacci Price Theory (technical analysis).<\/p>\n

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Monthly Dow Jones Industrial (INDU)<\/h3>\n

This last chart, the Monthly INDU, is probably the most impressive one so far.\u00a0 Clear Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs suggest massive resistance near the February 2020 peak levels.\u00a0 A very clear downward price channel originating from the February 2018 lows and transitioning across the December 2018 lows and into current lows.\u00a0 An Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System target price (CYAN) near 8108 (very near current price levels) and a very clear technical price pattern (Dojis) suggesting a potential top or price reversal is setting up.\u00a0 Lastly, the recent deep low price stalled very near to the historical YELLOW DASHED price channel that spans the 2000 and 2007 price peaks.<\/p>\n

Pulling all of this technical analysis together with simple Fibonacci Price Theory suggests that until the markets can prove to us that price is capable of establishing we upside price structures, the recent deep new price low (near 18,265) suggests future price action may collapse even further and attempt to establish a new, deeper, \u201cnew price low\u201d before the real bottoms set up in the markets.\u00a0 On this INDU chart, it suggests that a \u201cdeeper price low\u201d may result in a move well below the YELLOW DASHED price channel from 2000\/07 and attempt to move to the RED Fibonacci Price Target level near 14,000.<\/p>\n

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Concluding Thoughts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Obviously, we are still very bearish in terms of the current overall market trend.\u00a0 No technical analysis technique has shown us that the intermediate and longer-term trends have changed direction to Bullish.\u00a0 Yes, our Daily systems did identify a bullish trigger within this bearish trend on the SPY which we executed successfully for our members.\u00a0 There is an opportunity to take a bullish trade within a bearish price trend when technical analysis confirms the trigger and it is executed properly.<\/p>\n

If you are using our free public research for your own trading decision-making and\/or using it as an opportunity to find and execute successful trades, please remember you are the one ultimately making the decisions to trade based on our interpretation and free research posts.\u00a0 We, as technical traders, will continue to post new research articles and content that we believe is relevant to the current market setups.<\/p>\n

If you want to improve your accuracy and opportunities for success, then we urge you to visit\u00a0TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong> to learn how you can enjoy our research and our members-only trading triggers (see the first chart in this article).\u00a0 If you are managing your retirement account or 401k, then we urge you to visit www.TheTechnicalInvestor.com<\/strong><\/a> to learn how to protect your assets and grow your wealth using our proprietary longer-term modeling systems.\u00a0 Our goal is to help you find and create success \u2013 not to confuse you.<\/p>\n

Our researchers will generate free research on just about any topic that interests them.\u00a0 As technical traders, we follow price, predict future price moves, tops, bottoms, and trends, and attempt to highlight incredible setups that exist on the charts.\u00a0 What you do with it is up to you.\u00a0 Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com\/FreeResearch\/<\/a> to review all of our detailed free research posts.<\/p>\n

In closing, we would like to suggest that the next 5+ years are going to be incredible opportunities for skilled traders.\u00a0 Remember, we\u2019ve already mapped out price trends 10+ years into the future that we expect based on our advanced predictive modeling tools.\u00a0 If our analysis is correct, skilled traders will be able to make a small fortune trading these trends and Metals will skyrocket.\u00a0 The only way you\u2019ll know which trades to take or not is to become a member.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nChief Market Strategist
\nTheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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By TheTechnicalTraders Recently, we received a number of email messages and comments regarding our recent Bitcoin article and how we attempted to explain the market trend\/technical analysis.\u00a0 It appears we were not making our interpretation very clear for our friends and followers.\u00a0 This article should help to clear up our interpretation of the major market […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-170090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170090"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170090\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":170097,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170090\/revisions\/170097"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}