{"id":169456,"date":"2020-04-27T16:16:12","date_gmt":"2020-04-27T20:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=169456"},"modified":"2020-04-27T12:16:36","modified_gmt":"2020-04-27T16:16:36","slug":"should-i-buy-silver-now-or-wait-for-lower-premiums","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/04\/should-i-buy-silver-now-or-wait-for-lower-premiums\/","title":{"rendered":"Should I Buy Silver Now or Wait for Lower Premiums?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2589657371\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">April 27, 2020<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><b>By Money Metals News Service<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The silver futures price is near $15.50 per ounce but good luck buying the white metal anywhere near that price (with one notable exception discussed later).<\/p>\n<p>The inventory of low-premium retail <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/buy\/silver\/coins\">coins<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/buy\/silver\/rounds\">rounds<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/buy\/silver\/bars\">bars<\/a> mostly disappeared in a matter of days when fears over COVID-19 pricked the bubble in global equity markets back in March.<\/p>\n<p>Buying demand increased 5-fold and sellers all but vanished. Mints and refiners producing new products were unable to bridge the widening gap between supply and demand, and premiums exploded higher.<\/p>\n<p>Today the lowest premium product available for delivery \u2013 the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/10-oz-silver-bars\/37\">10 oz silver bar<\/a> \u2013 is sold at approximately $3.50\/oz over the paper futures market price. The higher premiums on some coins \u2013 especially the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/buy\/silver\/eagles\">Silver Eagle<\/a> \u2013 are giving investors pause.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/vault-silver-1-oz-fine-silver-bullion-stored\/499\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-reponsive content-img-right\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/uploads\/content\/vault-silver-sidebar-ad-sm.jpg\" alt=\"Vault silver 1 Troy Oz .999 Silver Secretly Stored | Get Started!\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The question is whether or not to buy now or wait for better pricing.<\/p><div id=\"inves-3738601625\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Before we examine that question, we should point out that investors who don\u2019t need physical possession of their metal don\u2019t have to make this difficult choice.<\/p>\n<p>We have two options for people who want to buy silver today, near the current paper price; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/vault-silver-1-oz-fine-silver-bullion-stored\/499\">Vault Silver<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/one-thousand-ounce-silver-bar-999-pure-comex-approved\/148\">1,000 ounce silver bars<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>However, anyone who wants delivery of silver now does have to make a choice. The key consideration is when supply will once again be plentiful relative to demand.<\/p>\n<p>These are the challenges to bringing more supply of retail coins, rounds, and bars to market:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mints and refiners need to ramp up production. That means hiring people and getting machinery up and running.<\/li>\n<li>All other considerations aside, it takes months to expand production capacity. Given these firms are emerging from several years of poor demand, they may be reluctant to make large investments right away.<\/li>\n<li>COVID-19 is disrupting supply and that may continue. Major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/buy\/gold\/pamp-suisse-gold-bars\">Swiss refineries<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneymetals.com\/silver-maple-leaf-one-ounce-9999-pure\/16\">Royal Canadian Mint<\/a> and the U.S. Mint have all dealt with temporary closures over the past 6 weeks. Going forward, these firms are likely to deal with any virus outbreaks by pausing operations once again.<\/li>\n<li>There are very few people selling bullion right now. We\u2019ll need some combination of higher prices and lower fear before more metal can be pried loose from those who hold it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now let\u2019s take a look at demand:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Investor sentiment remains supportive of bullion buying. The bullion market went from being a sleepy backwater to a hot ticket.<\/li>\n<li>The recent rally in stock prices doesn\u2019t seem to have changed that much. Lots of people recognize the rise in equities is 100% fueled by Fed stimulus and not by any improvement in fundamentals.<\/li>\n<li>There should be very few people left who view current monetary and fiscal policy as temporary. The Fed will continue suppressing interest rates and buying up bonds. Officials aren\u2019t even talking about these measures being temporary anymore; that would be an obvious lie.<\/li>\n<li>One round of stimulus after another coupled with lower tax receipts will mean multi-trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. We have entered the end-game for the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The case for falling demand in precious metals hinges on some sort of return to \u201cnormalcy\u201d. COVID-19 will need to turn out to be less deadly and economically disruptive than people thought. And it\u2019ll also take people fairly quickly going back to work and resuming their regular activities.<\/p>\n<p>A return to normalcy is, in our view, a real long shot. The 25 million people who have already lost jobs won\u2019t all have a job to go back to.<\/p>\n<p>Many businesses will not weather this storm, and fear of the virus is going to permanently change consumer habits.<\/p>\n<p>When we consider both supply and demand, the odds favor premiums remaining high for months (at a minimum). The wait for lower premiums could be a long one.<\/p>\n<p>If you are contemplating an investment in physical metal as a safe haven, you need to consider whether or not you have the luxury of time. The less metal you currently hold, the more urgent it is to bite the bullet and start stacking.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/money-metals.png\" width=\"80\" height=\"79\" align=\"left\" \/> The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Money Metals News Service The silver futures price is near $15.50 per ounce but good luck buying the white metal anywhere near that price (with one notable exception discussed later). The inventory of low-premium retail coins, rounds, and bars mostly disappeared in a matter of days when fears over COVID-19 pricked the bubble in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-169456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169456"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":169466,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169456\/revisions\/169466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}