{"id":167144,"date":"2020-03-23T10:01:47","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T14:01:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=167144"},"modified":"2020-03-23T07:55:10","modified_gmt":"2020-03-23T11:55:10","slug":"concerned-about-the-real-estate-market-us-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/03\/concerned-about-the-real-estate-market-us-too\/","title":{"rendered":"Concerned About The Real Estate Market? Us Too!"},"content":{"rendered":"
March 23, 2020<\/div>
\r\n<\/div><\/div>

By TheTechnicalTraders<\/u><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>– The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone\u2019s forward expectations related to the US and global economy.\u00a0 Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https:\/\/www.npr.org<\/a>).\u00a0 All of the recent repositionings of the global markets and forward expectations got us thinking about \u201cwhat happens after 8 to 12+ months?\u00a0 How will the US and global markets attempt a recovery process \u2013 if at all?\u201d.\u00a0 Today, we are going to try to start digging into the data that we believe is relevant to the future in terms of hard asset prices (home and other property) and more liquid asset prices (global financial markets).<\/p>\n

First, we want to preface this article by stating that humans are somewhat predictable in terms of how they will react in emergency or panic situations like this current Covid-19 pandemic.\u00a0 Initially, they will react to protect what is vital to them (family, assets, safety).\u00a0 This same thing happened in the 2008-09 credit market crisis market collapse.\u00a0 Then, after a bit more time, people change their thinking and start to adapt to the situation as it unfolds.\u00a0 We believe that 30 to 60 days from now, as more information becomes available and consumers globally are more capable of addressing the true longer-term risks of this virus event, a social process will begin to take place where valuations and expectations will adjust to the new perceived outcome (whatever that may be).<\/p>\n

The global stock market has collapsed nearly -35% based on our Custom Indexes.\u00a0 The SPY has collapsed -32.25% since February 23, 2020.\u00a0 During the 2008-09 Credit Crisis, the SPY collapsed -57.50% before finding a bottom near $67.10.\u00a0 We believe this initial price decline in the global markets is just the first downside price collapse of what may become many.\u00a0 Ultimately, we believe the 2015\/2016 lows will become the ultimate support for this downside move in the US markets.<\/p>\n

Be sure to\u00a0opt-in to our free market trend signals<\/strong>\u00a0before closing this page, so you don\u2019t miss our next special report!<\/p>\n

SPY Weekly Chart<\/h3>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Custom Real Estate Index Weekly Chart<\/h3>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Custom European Index Weekly Chart<\/h3>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

The data that is currently being reported and posted is data from January and February 2020.\u00a0 Current expectations for March data look grim (at best).\u00a0 Jobless claims, hours worked, and other economic data for the US and global markets may shock investors and the general public for many months to come.\u00a0 In 2008-09, these types of large economic contraction numbers were not uncommon.\u00a0 We want to prepare all of our friends and followers that we believe the next 6 to 12+ months could somewhat mirror what we saw in 2008-09 \u2013 be prepared.<\/p>\n

If our assumptions are correct, the reprieve in Foreclosures and Mortgage repayments for US consumers may not do much to resolve the ultimate problem.\u00a0 The problem will quickly revolve around the issue of how quickly the US economy can resume somewhat normal functions after the virus event subsides.\u00a0 We believe the reprieve offered to US consumers will assist in making the data a bit more tolerable for a short period of time, but ultimately any extended disruption in the US and global economy will result in extended risks in hard assets like homes, commercial property, and future valuation expectations.<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n

Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
<\/div>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

(Source: realtytrac.com\/statsandtrends\/foreclosuretrends\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n

This multi-part research article will dig deeper into the data and expected data to help you prepare for what may be likely in the markets (hard and soft).\u00a0 Now is the time to prepare for what could become one of the biggest disruptions in the global markets and global society we\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for short-term swing traders.<\/p>\n

Visit my\u00a0ETF Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders\u00a0– The current global Covid-19 virus event has upended everyone\u2019s forward expectations related to the US and global economy.\u00a0 Recently, President Trump has announced a 12-month reprieve for homeowners who find themselves without income, or a job, because of the US National Emergency related to the Covid-19 pandemic (source: https:\/\/www.npr.org).\u00a0 All of the recent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-167144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=167144"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":167145,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167144\/revisions\/167145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=167144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=167144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=167144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}