{"id":164792,"date":"2020-02-12T09:29:40","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T14:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=164792"},"modified":"2020-02-11T09:39:38","modified_gmt":"2020-02-11T14:39:38","slug":"how-failed-intl-cooperation-amplifies-virus-damage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2020\/02\/how-failed-intl-cooperation-amplifies-virus-damage\/","title":{"rendered":"How Failed Int\u2019l Cooperation Amplifies Virus Damage"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 12, 2020<\/div>
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By Dan Steinbock \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

As the downgrades of the economic outlook for US, China and worldwide are about to begin, the virus outbreak may be steadying. Sadly, much of the economic, xenophobic and virus damage stems for lagging cooperation.<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

At the end of January, United States declared the 2019 novel coronavirus acute respiratory disease (nCoV ARD) an \u201cunprecedented public health threat\u201d followed by preparations \u201cas if this were the next pandemic.” The unilateral action went against guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO).<\/p>\n

Thanks to sensationalist media, the move also unleashed fear across America at the peak of the domestic flu season. Some 22 to 31 million Americans have already been infected with the seasonal<\/i><\/em>\u00a0flu, requiring up to 210,000 to 370,000 hospitalizations and causing 12,000 to 30,000 deaths, according to the CDC. As the Trump administration is preparing a $4.8 trillion budget with big safety-net cuts, it is focusing public attention on the virus outbreak.<\/p>\n

Instead of a focus on the epidemiological facts, international headlines have focused on the expected \u201cpandemic,\u201d resulting in pressure campaigns against the WHO and an avalanche of xenophobic anti-Chinese incidents. The net effect will reverberate in downgraded economic outlooks in China, US and worldwide.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how it happened.<\/p>

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Rising number of cases, rapid outbreak deceleration<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

Even reputable media has contributed to misunderstandings. On February 4, New York Times<\/i><\/em>\u00a0reported: \u201cDeaths in China Rise, With No Sign of Slowdown.\u201d The first part of the sentence was true, but the second was misguided. In reality, the daily increase of new\u00a0<\/i><\/em>virus cases in China had just started to decelerate, while the pace of accumulated cases had been decelerating since mid-January<\/i><\/em>.<\/p>\n

With the new coronavirus, there are now (2 pm Wuhan time, Feb 11) over 42,600 confirmed cases worldwide, while the number of deaths is more than 1,000. If the current pace prevails, the former figure will soon exceed 50,000, while the latter may climb to 2,000.<\/p>\n

And yet, the number of the confirmed cases and deaths has remained relatively low \u2013 less than 500 and only 2, respectively – outside<\/i><\/em>\u00a0China. While these numbers will continue to increase, the low starting-point suggests that China\u2019s costly and draconian measures may have saved many lives within and outside China.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the pace of the contagion is changing. The relative<\/i><\/em>\u00a0increase of the accumulated cases has decreased since mid-January. While the pace peaked at almost 100% after mid-January, it has declined to zero and below (Figure 1a<\/b><\/strong>). In turn, new cases increased steadily from mid-January soaring to almost 3,900 on February 4. But since then the numbers have fallen below 2,600 \u2013 from daily increase of almost 350% to zero and below (Figure 1b<\/b><\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Figure <\/b><\/strong> Rising Accumulated Numbers, Falling Relative Rates<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n