{"id":160786,"date":"2019-11-29T10:00:30","date_gmt":"2019-11-29T15:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=160786"},"modified":"2019-11-29T07:55:53","modified_gmt":"2019-11-29T12:55:53","slug":"100-measured-moves-may-signal-a-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/11\/100-measured-moves-may-signal-a-top\/","title":{"rendered":"100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top"},"content":{"rendered":"
November 29, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops\/bottoms is the \u201c100% Measured Move\u201d structure.\u00a0 This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction.\u00a0 These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by\u00a0joining\u00a0my free trend signals email list<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend.\u00a0 We find that these trending price ranges and initial \u201cimpulse trends\u201d tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately.\u00a0 The explosive middle-trend is where one can\u2019t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen.\u00a0 Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the \u201cexpansion wave\u201d of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.<\/p>\n

These trade setups we call the \u201c100% measured moves\u201d are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups.\u00a0 They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move.\u00a0 The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 \u2013 after a brief price retracement.\u00a0 Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.<\/p>\n

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In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 \u2013 just like on the YM chart.\u00a0 Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn\u2019t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50.\u00a0 Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place.\u00a0 Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered \u201cprice rotation\u201d \u2013 not trending.\u00a0 The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.<\/p>

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If you are not familiar with some of my forecasting and trading strategies for trading the S&P 500<\/strong><\/a>, or my gold trading signals<\/a><\/strong> be sure to click those links to see some pretty interesting charts like these.<\/p>\n

SP500 Index Trend Identification and Trade Signal System<\/h3>\n
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Cycle and Price Prediction System<\/h3>\n
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Concluding Thoughts:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend.\u00a0 At this point, given the examples we\u2019ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now.\u00a0 Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.<\/p>\n

These techniques don\u2019t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix\/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.<\/p>\n

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide:\u00a02020 Cycles \u2013 The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive\/life-changing if handled properly.<\/p>\n

I urge you to visit my\u00a0Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a\u00a0FREE BAR OF GOLD<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis\u2019.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops\/bottoms is the \u201c100% Measured Move\u201d structure.\u00a0 This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction.\u00a0 These […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160786"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160786\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":160791,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160786\/revisions\/160791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}