{"id":158174,"date":"2019-10-22T13:40:29","date_gmt":"2019-10-22T17:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=158174"},"modified":"2019-10-22T13:40:29","modified_gmt":"2019-10-22T17:40:29","slug":"indexes-struggle-and-tran-suggests-a-possible-top","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/10\/indexes-struggle-and-tran-suggests-a-possible-top\/","title":{"rendered":"Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top"},"content":{"rendered":"
October 22, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year.\u00a0 History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.\u00a0 It appears in 2019 is no different.\u00a0 Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be waiting for some news or other information to push the markets outside of the defined range.<\/p>\n

We still have at least one more trading week to go in October, yet the US markets just don\u2019t want to move away from this 25,000 to 27,000 range for the Dow Industrials.\u00a0 In fact, since early 2019, we have traded within a fairly moderate price range of about 3200 points on the YM \u2013 a rotational range of about 11% in total size.\u00a0 Historically, this is a rather large sideways trading range for the YM \u2013 nearly 3x the normal volatility prior to 2015.<\/p>\n

Daily YM Chart<\/h3>\n

This Daily YM chart highlights the trading range that has setup over the past 5+ months with the YELLOW LEVELS.\u00a0 Price continues to tighten into a more narrow range as we progress towards the end of 2019.\u00a0 Our researchers believe a moderate price breakdown will occur near the apex of this move which will act as a \u201cprice reversion event\u201d and allow the markets to rally into 2020 and beyond.\u00a0 We are using our proprietary price modeling tools to attempt to identify any signs that can help us validate this research.\u00a0 Until we have some type of validation of the move, we can only wait as the risks associated with taking trades at this time are much higher than normal.<\/p>\n

The SP500 cycle analysis<\/strong><\/a> I did last week provides some solid forward-looking direction as well.<\/p>\n

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TRAN \u2013 Transportation Index<\/h3>\n

The TRAN (Transportation Index) is also confirming our analysis of a sideways price range with very little opportunity at the moment for a high-risk trade.\u00a0 The TRAN gapped higher on October 21 which may set up a massive top pattern formation, possibly a Three River Evening Star pattern of a massive Engulfing Bearish pattern.\u00a0 We\u2019ve highlighted the resistance range in RED on this chart and the support range in GREEN.\u00a0 Caution is the name of the game right now. \u00a0Let the markets tell us what is going to happen next.<\/p>

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Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

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<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

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<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

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The weekly chart of the TRAN<\/h3>\n

This Weekly chart of the TRAN shows a clearer picture of the sideways price range that is setting up and how close we are to the APEX of the Flag\/Pennant formation.\u00a0 Again, we know the markets are going to break clear of this Flag\/Pennant formation, but the direction of the breakout will likely depend on future news events that we can\u2019t predict.\u00a0 Any global failure or crisis may push the markets lower.\u00a0 Any global victory or success may push the markets higher.\u00a0 Right now, we believe the risk factors are very high and we are suggesting that traders need to be extremely cautious throughout the end of the year.<\/p>\n

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Concluding Thoughts:<\/h3>\n

There are still massive opportunities in sector ETFs and commodity ETFs for traders that want to find quick\/short-term trades.\u00a0 Gold and Silver are setting up major momentum bottoms.\u00a0 Natural Gas continues to set up a massive momentum bottom and Technology continues to set up a major topping type of pattern.\u00a0 The shift in capital away from risk will surely drive some really big trends over the next few weeks and months.\u00a0 A clear picture of what to expect looking forward up to 45 days I still rely on\u00a0my market trend charts<\/strong>\u00a0to know when I should be buying or selling positions. Skilled technical traders will be able to find incredible opportunities if they are patient and don\u2019t \u201cblow up\u201d their accounts chasing risky rotation.<\/p>\n

I urge you visit my\u00a0ETF Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!<\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive\/life-changing if handled properly.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com Nearing the end of October, traders are usually a bit more cautious about the markets than at other times of the year.\u00a0 History has proven that October can be a month full of surprises.\u00a0 It appears in 2019 is no different.\u00a0 Right now, the markets are still range bound and appear to be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-158174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158174"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":158179,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158174\/revisions\/158179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}