{"id":157800,"date":"2019-10-17T14:25:57","date_gmt":"2019-10-17T18:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=157800"},"modified":"2019-10-17T10:27:21","modified_gmt":"2019-10-17T14:27:21","slug":"how-much-did-chinas-gdp-grow-in-q3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/10\/how-much-did-chinas-gdp-grow-in-q3\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Did China\u2019s GDP Grow In Q3?"},"content":{"rendered":"
October 17, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Early Friday we have an avalanche of data from China, all of which is potentially market-moving. Some of it can have far-reaching effects for markets all over the world. Even though it\u2019s coming out in the relatively quieter Asian session, we could still have a substantial increase in volatility. This could influence traders when they come to their desks at the European and US open.<\/p>\n

The most important data is likely to be China\u2019s Q3 GDP.\u00a0The latest optimism about US-China talks<\/a>\u00a0started after the last quarter had already finished.\u00a0There is a pretty strong consensus that this will be the worst quarter for China in nearly ten years.<\/strong>\u00a0But there might be some cause for optimism from some of the other data that covers only last month.<\/p>\n

All the data comes out at the same time.<\/p>\n

GDP<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The consensus of projections for China\u2019s quarterly GDP is that it grew 1.5%<\/strong>\u00a0in the last quarter. This is a decline from 1.6% prior. By itself, this isn\u2019t all that different from recent results. On an annualized basis, however, expectations are for just 6.1% growth.<\/strong>\u00a0This is also less than 6.2% reported prior. By comparison, the government\u2019s target range is between 6.0% and 6.5%. It\u2019s getting close to dropping below 6.0%. This is seen as a key psychological level since China\u2019s economy hasn\u2019t grown this slow since the early \u201990s.<\/p>\n

Projections for lower GDP growth are based on the effects of the ongoing trade war. Last Monday, exports had the largest drop since February. Imports remained pretty much flat. Caixin services PMI for September also dropped and is just barely in expansion. This is an indication that the domestic market is being affected by trade difficulties. We might get further insight on that from the other data being released.<\/p>

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Retail Sales<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Retail sales are\u00a0expected to bump up to 8.2%<\/strong>\u00a0compared to 7.5% in August. This would be a sign that the domestic economy remains strong. This would be positive for the NZD since New Zealand exports primarily consumer goods to China. But, while it\u2019s an improvement over the prior month, it\u2019s still way below the long-term average. This would still be in line with the downward trend observed since the beginning of the trade war.<\/p>\n

Unemployment Rate<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The unemployment rate is\u00a0expected to remain at 5.2%.<\/strong>\u00a0Despite the view that the official employment data is less than reliable, it still has been rising since the inception of the trade war. Seasonal effects would lead to an expectation of the rate declining in September. Therefore, no change from prior month could be interpreted as a negative sign.<\/p>\n

Industrial Production<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Industrial production is\u00a0expected to grow by 5.4%\u00a0<\/strong>over the 4.4% registered in August. Again this better than prior month data is overshadowed by longer-term declines. With the majority of industrial production slated for export, the question is how is production increasing when exports are declining? Some of this could be attributable simply to factories pulling forward production ahead of the week-long National Day celebrations at the start of this month.<\/p>\n

After the volatility from the major data releases calms down, we have the\u00a0NBS press conference\u00a0<\/strong>which will give the government\u2019s view on the economy. There usually isn\u2019t a set text, so we could have market-moving comments over the next hour or so. Attention will be on any comments regarding trade, and the effects of the recent thawing of relations with the US have had on the official economic outlook.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex Early Friday we have an avalanche of data from China, all of which is potentially market-moving. Some of it can have far-reaching effects for markets all over the world. Even though it\u2019s coming out in the relatively quieter Asian session, we could still have a substantial increase in volatility. This could influence traders […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-157800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157800"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157800\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":157810,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157800\/revisions\/157810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}