{"id":157612,"date":"2019-10-15T14:22:17","date_gmt":"2019-10-15T18:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=157612"},"modified":"2019-10-15T10:02:48","modified_gmt":"2019-10-15T14:02:48","slug":"tomorrow-is-cpi-day-uk-ca-nz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/10\/tomorrow-is-cpi-day-uk-ca-nz\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow Is CPI Day: UK, CA & NZ"},"content":{"rendered":"
October 15, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Overnight and tomorrow we have a set of data releases that could directly affect the price movement of major currencies.<\/p>\n

The NZ inflation data is especially interesting since it\u2019s only published once per quarter. And investors are really keen to find out if the RBNZ\u2019s moves have had any effect!<\/p>\n

Later, the other two major banks that have not yet joined the race to the bottom might be swayed to change their outlook with new inflation data.<\/p>\n

We could see a move of several dozens of pips following the release.<\/p>\n

In chronological order, we have the following.<\/p>

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New Zealand<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The consensus of expectations is for Third Quarter CPI to come in at 0.7%.\u00a0<\/strong>This is\u00a0compared to 0.6% in the prior quarter.<\/p>\n

A result like this would be good news for the RBNZ since that would put the\u00a0annualized rate at 1.5%<\/strong>\u00a0compared to 1.7% in the prior reading. This is still far away from the target, but better than what the central bank has been projecting. Analysts broadly agree that it\u2019s not enough to deter the next rate cut.<\/p>\n

(Reminder that earlier in the day we get the GDT Index, which we can also expect to increase over the prior month. That could turn the trend towards NZD strength ahead of the inflation data.)<\/p>\n

As a measure of comparison,\u00a0the RBNZ\u2019s projection for rates is just 0.5% for last quarter, and an annualized rate of 1.3% by the end of the year.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If we were to get a surprise result below those numbers, it would likely be quite negative for the NZD, which is already under pressure from external factors.<\/p>\n

United Kingdom<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The UK\u2019s inflation rate has been keeping near the BOE\u2019s target. In fact, it has only slipped below it in the last couple of months, inviting the specter of a potential rate cut.<\/p>\n

The consensus of expectations won\u2019t change the scenario much.\u00a01.8% annualized CPI is projected<\/strong>, compared to 1.7% in August.\u00a0On a monthly basis, that would mean no change in prices.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s questionable how much the\u00a0BOE<\/a>\u00a0still relies on the harmonized CPI rate. But, for GBP\/EUR cross traders, it\u2019s still a useful measure. Projections are for annualized HCPI to remain healthy at 1.9% compared to 1.7% in the prior reading.<\/p>\n

Canada<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Despite all the turmoil in major markets, Canada has remained comfortably on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s had a\u00a0steady economy<\/a>\u00a0that hasn\u2019t required any intervention from the BOC. However, inflation trends have been slightly weaker, and we are expecting similar results this time around.<\/p>\n

Expectations are for monthly core CPI (the one that usually moves the markets) to come in at 0.0%,<\/strong>\u00a0up from -0.1% in the prior month. Annualized, this comes in just a hair below target at 1.9%, just like last month.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex Overnight and tomorrow we have a set of data releases that could directly affect the price movement of major currencies. The NZ inflation data is especially interesting since it\u2019s only published once per quarter. And investors are really keen to find out if the RBNZ\u2019s moves have had any effect! Later, the other […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-157612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157612","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157612"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157612\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":157626,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157612\/revisions\/157626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}