{"id":155149,"date":"2019-09-10T10:12:23","date_gmt":"2019-09-10T14:12:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=155149"},"modified":"2019-09-10T10:12:23","modified_gmt":"2019-09-10T14:12:23","slug":"ecb-measures-to-be-less-dovish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/09\/ecb-measures-to-be-less-dovish\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Measures To Be Less Dovish"},"content":{"rendered":"
September 10, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The week started off on good footing for the euro on Monday, supported by economic developments as well as monetary policy expectations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Dollar, on the other hand, kicked this week\u2019s trading session off on a rather weak footing despite US consumer borrowing coming out better than expected.<\/p>\n

ECB Expectations Less Dovish<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Traders and investors alike might expect euro to remain somewhat unchanged ahead of the widely expected ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday. However,\u00a0EURUSD\u00a0kickstarted the week with a fresh 3-day high at $1.1067.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apparently, there are\u00a0growing expectations that the ECB will be less dovish<\/strong>\u00a0than anticipated last week. After all, Draghi won\u2019t want to leave his position providing a pessimistic outlook.<\/p>\n

Fundamentals identify\u00a0three areas of focus<\/strong>\u00a0for this week\u2019s meeting:<\/p>

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\u2013 potential\u00a0interest rate cuts<\/strong>\u00a0and how deep into negative territory, if any
\n\u2013 the size of the\u00a0easing package<\/strong>\u00a0and its form (e.g reinitiating\u00a0TLTRO<\/a>\u00a0II or bond-buying), if any, and
\n\u2013\u00a0cost of easing<\/strong>\u00a0package\/negative rates for banks and investors alike (called \u201ctiering\u201d), if any of course<\/p>\n

German Trade Boosted Euro Flows<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In Germany, Europe\u2019s strongest economy,\u00a0exports increased from the -0.1% expected to 0.7% actual. They increased 3.8% year-on-year<\/strong>\u00a0to 115.5 billion euros. This brought the 2019 surplus to 131.1 billion euros.<\/p>\n

When looking at the 2019 figures, however, the trade surplus is tighter compared to the corresponding 2017 period. The monthly export figures rose on the back of\u00a0boosted sales outside the European Union<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

A Weaker Dollar Supported EURUSD<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The most recent performance on eurodollar suggests that market participants placed several dollar shorts as well, it wasn\u2019t just euro flows affecting the eurodollar\u2019s exchange rate.\u00a0USD shorts were likely initiated amid last week\u2019s bearish momentum following\u00a0Friday\u2019s disappointing NFP<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong>They were also\u00a0in defiance of upbeat US consumer data. The economic report is a weak indicator nevertheless and doesn\u2019t normally cause much noise.<\/p>\n

EURUSD Struggles At $1.1050<\/strong><\/h2>\n

With a positive trading day already in the books on Monday, the euro is on a +1 against the dollar. However, adding today\u2019s earlier attempt, this marks the\u00a0fourth failed attempt to break above the $1.1050 psychological resistance.<\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD could receive another rejection here and turn lower<\/strong>\u00a0to take out breakeven stops near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Jan \u201917-Fen \u201918 bullish impulse. This could validate the current structure, which suggests another last\u00a0slide towards 1.0810 to complete wave 5 of the minute C Elliot wave triangle.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"eurusd<\/a><\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex The week started off on good footing for the euro on Monday, supported by economic developments as well as monetary policy expectations. Dollar, on the other hand, kicked this week\u2019s trading session off on a rather weak footing despite US consumer borrowing coming out better than expected. ECB Expectations Less Dovish Traders and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155149"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155157,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155149\/revisions\/155157"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}