{"id":155051,"date":"2019-09-09T07:15:21","date_gmt":"2019-09-09T11:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=155051"},"modified":"2019-09-09T07:09:30","modified_gmt":"2019-09-09T11:09:30","slug":"a-busy-week-ahead-as-investors-await-central-banks-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/09\/a-busy-week-ahead-as-investors-await-central-banks-move\/","title":{"rendered":"A busy week ahead as investors await central banks move"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2443175189\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">September 9, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf &amp; MENA), <a href=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/contributors\/contributor-profile-forextime\/\">ForexTime<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"article-body\">\n<div class=\"field-body\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\">\n<ul>\n<li><em>US nonfarm payrolls figure disappoints<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>US inflation and consumers spending to determine the Fed\u2019s next move<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>ECB to launch a new stimulus program<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Geopolitics remains a critical factor in investors decisions<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Risk assets received a boost last week while safe havens gave up some gains after the United States and China agreed to return to the negotiating table in early October. The reaction we\u2019ve seen in markets shows how desperate investors are for any positive signs related to trade talks. While it\u2019s too early to conclude that a deal or a truce may be reached, the news that both sides are willing to talk again appeared enough to lift sentiment. However, there doesn\u2019t seem to be any hint that either country will provide concessions, suggesting that the initial celebration may prove to be premature.<\/p>\n<p>The latest US jobs report didn\u2019t indicate any turnaround in fundamentals. In fact, the US economy added jobs well below market estimates in August at 130K, versus the expectation of 158K. The added jobs were also 32K below this year\u2019s average of 162K. While the figures do look disappointing, they aren\u2019t terribly bad. Unemployment held at 3.7% for the third consecutive month and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. The conclusion that can be drawn from the latest NFP and most recent PMI data is that the US economy is losing momentum; however, it remains far from an imminent recession.<\/p>\n<p>Attention now should be turned to consumer spending which has been the brightest spot in the economy. If US consumers show any signs of closing their wallets amid the ongoing trade dispute, expect the Federal Reserve to move aggressively in easing monetary policy. However, tariffs on Chinese goods are still insignificant yet, as the bulk of tariffs that will directly impact consumers may come in October and December. Another piece of\u00a0data that the Fed will be taking into their consideration for the FOMC next week is consumer prices. US core inflation is anticipated to accelerate to 2.3% y-o-y in August from 2.2% in the previous month. Any upside surprise in prices may make the Fed\u2019s job more complicated and give the Dollar another upward push.<\/p>\n<p>This week\u2019s key event is the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday. Investors across the world are widely anticipating a new stimulus package from the central bank. Markets are expecting at least a 0.1% cut in deposit rate and a renewed QE program. The Euro will move according to how aggressive the easing package comes. A monthly purchase program of 30 \u2013 40 billion Euros a month may satisfy bond traders who have pulled yields to record lows in recent weeks, and that is likely to put further pressure on the EURUSD, sending it below 1.09. A bond purchase program less than that will disappoint bond traders. However, Mr. Draghi is facing very challenging times given the opposition from some members, which is likely to make this meeting the most interesting one in several years.<\/p>\n<p>Geopolitical developments should also be watched carefully by traders and investors. Whether it\u2019s Brexit drama, headlines on the trade war, Hong Kong\u2019s protests, and even the OPEC meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi after Saudi Arabia\u2019s decision to replace its energy minister.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><em><strong>Disclaimer: <\/strong>The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and\/or other investment advice and\/or an offer of and\/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and\/or a guarantee and\/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-54242 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/Forex-Time-Logo.png\" alt=\"Forex-Time-Logo\" width=\"262\" height=\"90\" \/><strong>Article by <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/contributors\/contributor-profile-forextime\/\">ForexTime<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>ForexTime Ltd (FXTM)<\/strong> is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185\/12 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forextime.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">www.forextime.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf &amp; MENA), ForexTime US nonfarm payrolls figure disappoints US inflation and consumers spending to determine the Fed\u2019s next move ECB to launch a new stimulus program Geopolitics remains a critical factor in investors decisions Risk assets received a boost last week while safe havens gave up some gains [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-155051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=155051"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155051\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":155062,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/155051\/revisions\/155062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=155051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=155051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=155051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}