{"id":153197,"date":"2019-08-09T07:52:13","date_gmt":"2019-08-09T11:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=153197"},"modified":"2019-08-09T07:44:30","modified_gmt":"2019-08-09T11:44:30","slug":"metals-and-vix-are-about-to-pull-a-crazy-ivan-part-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/08\/metals-and-vix-are-about-to-pull-a-crazy-ivan-part-i\/","title":{"rendered":"Metals and VIX Are About To Pull A \u201cCrazy Ivan\u201d \u2013 Part I"},"content":{"rendered":"
August 9, 2019<\/div>
\r\n<\/div><\/div>

By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

We\u2019re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source<\/a>) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets \u2013 called a \u201cCrazy Ivan\u201d.\u00a0 We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual \u201cCrazy Ivan\u201d move of their own \u2013 reverting to unknown price levels while the US\/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown \u201crevaluation\u201d targets in the process.<\/p>\n

Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event.\u00a0 It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia\/China issue some type of catalyst to the event.\u00a0 We don\u2019t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy\/credit\/debt issues.\u00a0 God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event \u2013 we really don\u2019t need that right now.<\/p>\n

Please review these earlier research posts for more information :<\/p>\n

July 24, 2019: PART II \u2013 BLACK HOLE IN GLOBAL BANKING IS BEING EXPOSED<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

July 24, 2019: SILVER PRICE TARGET DURING THE NEXT BULL MARKET<\/strong><\/a><\/p>

\r\n
\r\n

Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
<\/div>\n

July 20, 2019: US & GLOBAL MARKETS SETTING UP FOR A VOLATILITY EXPLOSION \u2013 ARE YOU READY?<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

July 13, 2019: MID-AUGUST IS A CRITICAL TURNING POINT FOR US STOCKS<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Our job as research analysts is to highlight what we believe is likely to happen and why we believe it is likely to happen.\u00a0 Therefore, without guessing as to the cause of the event, let\u2019s focus on the \u201cCrazy Ivan\u201d event and how we can attempt to profit from it.<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s take a look at the VIX chart.\u00a0 The VIX basing level (the lowest level the VIX has attained between price spikes) has been increasing as US stock market volatility continues to increase.\u00a0 The nature of the calculations that make up the VIX would suggest this increase in basing levels would happen as extended volatility continues to be present in the markets \u2013 so this is expected.\u00a0 What is not expected is the August 19th<\/sup> price inflection point that we believe will drive an unexpected price reversion in the US and global stock markets.\u00a0 We believe this cycle inflection date is key to understanding how the markets will react going into the end of 2019 and beyond.<\/p>\n

If our analysis is correct, then we believe a breakdown in the US and global markets will occur on or shortly after August 19, 2019, where the US stock markets are poised for a -15% to -25% price reversion.\u00a0 This downside move in the US stock market would set up an incredible \u201cprice anomaly\u201d for skilled technical traders that should provide an incredible opportunity for future profits.<\/p>\n

We believe the ultimate downside potential for this move may last all the way through the end of 2019 and into early 2020 \u2013 although we can\u2019t be certain yet as to the depth and severity of this move using our predictive modeling tools and utilities.\u00a0 All we know is that it is about to happen based on what our predictive modeling tools are telling us and we have continued to try to warn you of this move for the past few months.\u00a0 So here it is \u2013 the Crazy Ivan (as we\u2019re calling it).<\/p>\n

Any VIX rally that pushes the price above 30 or 40 would have to be rather severe compared to previous rotations.\u00a0 The spikes on this chart related as follows on the NQ chart :<\/p>\n

Early May VIX Spike to 23.31 resulted in a -938.25 point move (-11.91%) in the NQ<\/p>\n

The current August VIX spike to 24.80 resulted in a -848.75 point move (-10.54%) in the NQ.<\/p>\n

What would a move to above 32 in the VIX look like on the NQ chart?\u00a0 How about a move to above 42 on the VIX?\u00a0 Hello Crazy Ivan.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

This next chart of the NQ on a monthly basis highlights our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system at work.\u00a0 This utility helps us to understand where the price will want to target in the future and also helps us to understand trend and outlying price trends (or price anomalies).\u00a0 Price anomalies happen when price moves substantially away from where the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting price wants to be at.\u00a0 Thus, if the price of the NQ were to fall below $5500 very quickly (think Crazy Ivan) and our ADL modeling tool suggests that price really wants to be at $6800 at that time, then we have a $3300 price anomaly setting up.\u00a0 This is a type of reactive price anomaly that suggests price is way off target and will attempt to revert to levels closer to the ADL predictive price levels.<\/p>\n

We believe the Crazy Ivan event could push the price of the NQ much lower than our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting and create a price anomaly that may become one of the most profitable trades near the end of 2019.<\/p>\n

You can see from this ADL predictive modeling chart that price is expected to be lower near the end of 2019, but steadily climb higher into early 2020.\u00a0 If price were to end up below 6400 by the end of 2019, that would set up a 1000+ point price anomaly setup that could become an incredible upside price move in early 2020.\u00a0 Time will tell as this Crazy Ivan event plays out.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In the second part of this article, we\u2019ll study the Crazy Ivan event in the metals and show you what we believe will happen to both Gold and Silver as this event plays out.\u00a0 You won\u2019t want to miss this one.<\/p>\n

WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500<\/h3>\n

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell.\u00a0Watch Video Here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today.\u00a0See Comparison Charts Here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

On June 26th<\/sup>\u00a0I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17.\u00a0See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

More recently on July 16th,<\/sup>\u00a0I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry.\u00a0See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Become a technical trader and profit like a pro!
\nClick Here<\/a><\/h3>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com We\u2019re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets \u2013 called a \u201cCrazy Ivan\u201d.\u00a0 We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-153197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=153197"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153197\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":153198,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/153197\/revisions\/153198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=153197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=153197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=153197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}