{"id":151814,"date":"2019-07-19T15:31:15","date_gmt":"2019-07-19T19:31:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=151814"},"modified":"2019-07-20T13:16:04","modified_gmt":"2019-07-20T17:16:04","slug":"the-week-ahead-currency-point-adding-to-our-positions-knocking-a-pair-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/the-week-ahead-currency-point-adding-to-our-positions-knocking-a-pair-out\/","title":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead: Currency Point &#8211; Adding to our positions, knocking a pair out"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-64103759\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 19, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"section-header\">\n<h3>Currency Point \u2013 Adding to our positions, knocking a pair out<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_3437\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t5ywFW7TAhM\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Our USD thesis is very much holding true. In fact, the fait accompli around the cut to the\u00a0Federal Funds Rate has been strengthened further by several events of the past week.<\/p>\n<p>These been:<br \/>\n\u2013 New York President John Williams confirming that its \u2018better to take preventative measures\u2019<br \/>\n\u2013 Vice Chair Richard Clarida followed this comment in an interview with Bloomberg with this comment: \u2018When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress\u2019<br \/>\n\u2013 Chair Jerome Powell: \u201cUncertainties about this outlook have increased, particularly regarding trade developments and global growth\u2026[We] will act as appropriate to dustain the expansion\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The fait accompli of the July FOMC meeting has moved to a debate about how much will the\u00a0Board cut on the 31st? Will it be 25-basis point (bps) or a hard faster 50bps.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As of last week, there was a growing trend from traders that a 50bps cut was now becoming a possibility. Since the remarks above the probability of a 50bps cut have moved from 17%\u00a0at the start of the week to 40% at time of writing, the momentum suggests it will go past 50% before the meeting.<\/p>\n<p>This all but locks in USD weakness over this period; thus we again highlight \u2018choice\u2019 as the\u00a0USD will tends to \u2018overpower\u2019 in all pairs.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1027999388\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>However, will need to single out GBP and EUR as possible numerators to ignore for the\u00a0following reasons:<br \/>\n<b><br \/>\nGBP:<\/b><br \/>\n\u2013 Final week of the \u2018mini-election\u2019 for the PM role. Boris Johnson looks the most likely\u00a0however Jeremy Hunt is still very much in the mix.<br \/>\n\u2013 A Brexit \u2018no deal\u2019 risk is building rapidly<br \/>\n\u2013 Bank of England is becoming dovish<br \/>\nAll are risks on the GBP side<\/p>\n<p><b>EUR:<\/b><br \/>\n\u2013 ECB meeting this week, likely to signal further accommodation<br \/>\n\u2013 Could cut Deposit and Lending rates as early as this week.<br \/>\nRisks on the EUR side<\/p>\n<p>The trade here is in the USD, thus look for pairs where the opposite currency is in a \u2018neutral\u2019\u00a0or \u2018rising\u2019 bias. It why we are adding to our AUD\/USD long positions we have taken over the period weeks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Currency Point \u2013 Adding to our positions, knocking a pair out Our USD thesis is very much holding true. In fact, the fait accompli around the cut to the\u00a0Federal Funds Rate has been strengthened further by several events of the past week. These been: \u2013 New York President John Williams confirming [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151814"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151814\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":151815,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151814\/revisions\/151815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}