{"id":151494,"date":"2019-07-13T15:28:42","date_gmt":"2019-07-13T19:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=151494"},"modified":"2019-07-13T13:30:08","modified_gmt":"2019-07-13T17:30:08","slug":"the-week-ahead-friday-12th-july-2019-currency-point-usd-fait-accompli","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/the-week-ahead-friday-12th-july-2019-currency-point-usd-fait-accompli\/","title":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead: Friday 12th July 2019 \u2013 Currency Point \u2013 USD, fait accompli?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1295294260\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 13, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"section-header\">\n<h3>Currency Point \u2013 USD, fait accompli?<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_2418\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yWeD5Kehcm4\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The USD, from a market perspective anyway, is facing in a very dovish set up; and that\u2019s\u00a0despite last week\u2019s strong non-farm payrolls (NFP).<\/p>\n<p>The NFPs certain throw out a red herring, its strength saw pairs whipsawing away from\u00a0trend and did in fact knock out a previous trade idea in USD\/JPY by hitting our stop. However, Friday week\u2019s NFP rally has been short lived and the main event \u2013 a Dovish Fed \u2013\u00a0has finally grabbed hold of the USD.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference mid-last week has actually made the July FOMC on the 30-31 st a fait accompli in the market\u2019s eye. If we look at market probability pricing\u00a0pre-NFP a 25-basis point (bps) cut was at 82%, Post-NFP below 50% and then after Powell\u2019s\u00a0testimony 93%.<\/p>\n<p>It raises the bigger question in the USD dovish setup and that is: it&amp;#39;s not \u2018if\u2019 the FOMC cuts,\u00a0its \u2018by how much\u2019 will they cut?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A minority point to the FOMC minutes which suggests a \u2018gradual\u2019 approach to accommodation suggesting 25bps is more likely (I actually concur with this statement as there is still solid strength in the US economy). The majority however, seemed to favour a stronger move of up to 50bps at the July meeting. This is by no means a lock but is \u2018stronger\u2019 view currently.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2897151628\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Which Pair?<br \/>\nThe set up in the USD suggests you can almost choose your pair of choose. It is always \u2018best practice\u2019 to choose the pair you most comfortable with, thus for me its AUD\/USD.<\/p>\n<p><b><br \/>\nStraying Long AUD\/USD<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Entry: 0.6950 Target: 0.7200, Stop: 0.6900<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Over the past year the AUD has been priced correctly, due to the slowdown in economics,\u00a0inflation below trend and unemployment ticking up. This led to a pricing in of rate cuts,<br \/>\nwhich have now been delivered in the form of two 25bp cuts back-to-back. If we couple this\u00a0with the new government tax reform legislation the level of stimulus in the Australian<br \/>\neconomy should be a positive in the coming period and thus an AUDUSD positive.<\/p>\n<p>If we also look at the US-China trade tensions this too appears to have abated (for now) again a risk F positive and even more so for an Asian-focused currency such as the AUD.<\/p>\n<p>Trade Caveat:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0Fed is hawkish even neutral \u2013 will hit all USD pairs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Currency Point \u2013 USD, fait accompli? The USD, from a market perspective anyway, is facing in a very dovish set up; and that\u2019s\u00a0despite last week\u2019s strong non-farm payrolls (NFP). The NFPs certain throw out a red herring, its strength saw pairs whipsawing away from\u00a0trend and did in fact knock out a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151494"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":151495,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151494\/revisions\/151495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}