{"id":151221,"date":"2019-07-10T09:05:03","date_gmt":"2019-07-10T13:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=151221"},"modified":"2019-07-10T08:40:55","modified_gmt":"2019-07-10T12:40:55","slug":"june-boc-odds-of-a-rate-cut-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/june-boc-odds-of-a-rate-cut-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"June BoC: Odds Of A Rate Cut Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1553763129\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 10, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Bank of Canada will be holding its monetary policy meeting this week on Wednesday. The bank has left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for the past five monetary policy meetings.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>While the central bank\u2019s forward guidance has turned dovish previously, we expect that this could change. However, it could still remain cautious. The central bank was proved right when it deemed the soft economic patch in Canada temporary.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_85820\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-85820 size-full b-loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/CABROVER-Index-Bank-of-Canada-O-2019-07-04-10-52-15.png\" alt=\"Bank of Canada - Interest Rates, 1.75%\" width=\"1360\" height=\"532\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bank of Canada \u2013 Interest Rates, 1.75%<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Various measures of economic data show that there is a strong chance for the economy to bounce back. This included the better than expected inflation data. GDP has also been ticking higher since April after declining in the months before.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Canada Inflation Hits BoC\u2019s Target Rate<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Inflation data from Canada for May saw consumer prices rising to the BoC\u2019s inflation target rate of 2.0%. The core inflation measures were one of the highest since 2012.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Headline inflation in May rose 2.4% on the year, coming out stronger than expected<\/li>\n<li>The BoC core measures of inflation have been at 2.1% on average<\/li>\n<li>The uptick in inflation came on higher prices in food and transportation, pushing the yearly inflation rate higher<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>The May inflation report was no doubt stronger than expected. Following the report, the expectations for the BoC to cut rates fell. The markets are expecting less than a 50% chance of a rate cut from the BoC this year.<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"inves-427269080\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>The uptick in inflation is likely to see the pressure easing on the Bank of Canada. However, the central bank is unlikely to react to the inflation report with a rate hike. At best, the higher prices in food and transportation will keep the BoC in a wait-and-see mode.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the positive inflation data, major headwinds still remain for the BoC which will result in the central bank treading cautiously. But the likelihood of a rate cut remains low at the moment.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Canada\u2019s Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The latest jobs report, however, was a tad disappointing with the data seen to be unlikely to shift the BoC\u2019s view on interest rates. Data from Statistics Canada showed last Friday that the jobless rate ticked higher.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Canada\u2019s unemployment rate rose to 5.5% while the economy was seen shedding 2,200 jobs during the month in June. But, despite the weaker than expected jobs report, economists shrug aside data following two months of solid gains on the jobs sector.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But given the weakness in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/en\/2019\/07\/canada-jobs-report-crucial-for-boc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the jobs report<\/a>, the optimism drawn from the inflation and rising GDP numbers could be offset.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Will the BoC Signal Rate Hikes Again?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Policymakers at the Bank of Canada are likely to see diverging paths, especially comparing to the Fed and the ECB. Both the central banks have been preparing the markets for a possible rate cut.<\/p>\n<p>While the Fed remains on the sidelines, for now, the recent declines across various sectors add to the downside view. The markets remain hopeful for at least\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\/blog\/en\/2019\/07\/investors-await-powells-testimony\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">two rate cuts from the Fed.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The ECB, on the other hand, has sent across the message that interest rates could be lowered further. It also opened up the possibility of restarting its QE program. In contrast, the BoC remains one of the few central banks that could either see rates remain on hold or perhaps even a rate hike.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Given the global headwinds and the trade uncertainty, it is unlikely that the BoC will hastily raise rates. As a result, we expect the Bank of Canada to strike a cautious tone in the markets this week.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There is scope for the BoC to do away with the dovish forward guidance, it could be replaced with a hint of hawkishness while remaining cautious of the incoming economic data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.orbex.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Orbex The Bank of Canada will be holding its monetary policy meeting this week on Wednesday. The bank has left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for the past five monetary policy meetings. While the central bank\u2019s forward guidance has turned dovish previously, we expect that this could change. However, it could still remain cautious. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151221"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151221\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":151240,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151221\/revisions\/151240"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}