{"id":151052,"date":"2019-07-08T10:20:25","date_gmt":"2019-07-08T14:20:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=151052"},"modified":"2019-07-08T09:57:10","modified_gmt":"2019-07-08T13:57:10","slug":"part-ii-is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/part-ii-is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"PART II \u2013 Is The Debt Crisis About To Be Reborn In 2020?"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 8, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I<\/strong><\/a> do so now.<\/p>\n

_\u00a0 Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase that lasts until 8+ month before the actual election date.<\/p>\n

_\u00a0\u00a0 The Transportation Index has not recovered to levels from the September 2018 peak.\u00a0 This lower price rotation in the Transportation Index suggests the global economy is not expecting growth in the near future.<\/p>\n

_\u00a0\u00a0 Other than Precious Metals, the Commodities sector has rebounded off of recent lows but has yet to see any real price advancement \u2013 suggesting that demand for raw commodities is rather weak.<\/p>\n

_\u00a0\u00a0 The Real Estate sector in the US is starting to falter<\/strong><\/a> near a current high price level.\u00a0 We are seeing price decreases hit the markets as sellers are desperate to attract buyers.\u00a0 This could be a warning that a price revaluation event is about to unfold in the US.<\/p>

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_\u00a0\u00a0 Super-Cycles suggest a moderately sized price rotation between now and early 2020<\/strong><\/a> (likely greater than 20% in size).\u00a0 This rotation, should it happen, will become a price revaluation event that could attempt to \u201cshake loose\u201d some of the sector pricing and forward expectations we\u2019ve mentioned (above).<\/p>\n

Our bigger concern is the localized state and federal pension and retirement issues that continue to respond with higher levels of financial commitments and greater levels of annual budgets as related to ongoing capacity and operational activities in the US.<\/p>\n

If an unwinding event was to unfold in or near 2020, it is our belief that a pricing revaluation event related to any of the core economic factors above (particularly with Real Estate, Economic Cycles, the US Presidential Elections, and a soft\/weakening US economy) could result in a much larger price revaluation event taking place.\u00a0 This would create extended pressures on local State and Federal expenses and highlight debt issues that can often be hidden behind \u201ccreative accounting\u201d tricks.<\/p>\n

State and Local Government Debt Securities and Loan Liability levels have stayed elevated, yet somewhat flat over the past 10+ years.\u00a0 It is very likely that these debt levels have been contained because of the US easy money policies of the past 10+ years.\u00a0 When the US Dollar is cheap and easy to repay, these debt levels don\u2019t look so difficult.<\/p>\n

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Pension and retirement systems\/fund are a completely different story for State and Local government agencies.\u00a0 Asset flows have dramatically increased in volatility after 2000.\u00a0 Additionally, the depth and magnitude of asset outflows have become quite dangerous while price revaluation events were unfolding (2000 to 2004 and 2008 to 2015).\u00a0 Outflows in state and federal pension and retirement funds create large forward operational pressures and shortfalls in expected funding levels.\u00a0 These decreases in funding should be made whole by the State or City \u2013 but they are rarely ever repaid in full.<\/p>\n

As these \u201cwholes\u201d in the pension and retirement systems continue to fester (resulting in decreased funds for pensioners and decrease fund to be deployed as investment assets), the problems begin to compound over time.\u00a0 More and more retirees and pensioners start drawing benefits while the system continues to take in less and less \u2013 never actually catching up in total value.<\/p>\n

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One big revaluation event, or possibly two, from now and we believe the entire system will create a multiple Trillion Dollar debt crisis within the US and possibly throughout the modern world.\u00a0 We believe the under-estimated state and federal pension\/retirement funding issue is the next shoe to drop and that it will take a price revaluation event to expose the risks that are evident within this failed \u201cPonzi\u201d scheme.\u00a0 Read the recent news about Chicago and Illinois<\/a> to learn just how dangerous these entitlement contraptions really are.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s assume that a revaluation event does take place within the next 5 to 10+ years \u2013 this would be something like a Real Estate price correction or some type of stock market, asset market price correction related to local or global economic issues.\u00a0 Could these massive asset funds handle an extended DRAWDOWN from their funds while Cities, States, and Federal agencies attempt to deal with declining revenues?\u00a0 How much time would it take for these pension and retirement funds to fall into crisis or insolvency?<\/p>\n

By our estimates, the current asset levels in the US retirement\/pension system have just started to breach the lower asset level channel originating from 1970 to 1999 attribution levels.\u00a0 It has taken 20+ years of\u00a0 US Fed and global Central Bank market manipulation, as well as President Trump\u2019s incredible US economic and stock market rally, to recover to these levels.<\/p>\n

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Overall, skilled technical traders must be aware of the risks that are ever-present for another crisis event or what we are calling a \u201cprice revaluation event\u201d that could create havoc on anyone\u2019s retirement accounts, trading portfolios and\/or simple family life\/future.\u00a0 We\u2019re trying to help to highlight what we believe will be the future 16 to 24 months of pricing activity within the US Stock market based on our research tools and our experience\/knowledge.<\/p>\n

I urge you visit my\u00a0Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar!<\/em><\/p>\n

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide:\u00a02020 Cycles \u2013 The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive\/life-changing if handled properly.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com There are some key elements of political and economic Super-Cycles that all traders must stay aware of listed below. But if you have not yet read PART I do so now. _\u00a0 Very often, 12+ months before a major US political election cycle, the US stock market typically enters a Bearish trend phase […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=151052"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151052\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":151053,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151052\/revisions\/151053"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=151052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=151052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}