{"id":150755,"date":"2019-07-02T14:30:33","date_gmt":"2019-07-02T18:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=150755"},"modified":"2019-07-02T13:26:48","modified_gmt":"2019-07-02T17:26:48","slug":"transportation-index-warns-of-trouble-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/transportation-index-warns-of-trouble-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Transportation Index Warns Of Trouble Ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 2, 2019<\/div>
\r\n<\/div><\/div>

By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Any weakness in the Transportation Index near current levels would indicate investors and traders believe the global economy may continue to contract going forward and may be an ominous sign for the global stock markets.<\/p>\n

The Transportation Index is a measure of the current expectations related to shipping, trucking, trains and all measure of forward expectations for goods, products and raw materials to be moved across nations, seas, states, and locations.\u00a0 When the economy is gaining strength, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving higher.\u00a0 When the economy is weakening, we typically expect to see the Transportation Index moving lower.<\/p>\n

Since the peak in September 2018, the Transportation Index has moved much lower to establish a base near $8625 in December 2018.\u00a0 After that base formed, a series of price rotations pushed the Transportation Index up to $11,148, where it peaked, then began to trail a bit lower since May 2019. Our concern is that the Support\/Resistance level, highlighted by the GREEN rectangle on this Weekly chart, represents a critical historical price that must be breached before any renewed strength in the global markets will be seen.<\/p>\n

After the G20 meeting, last weekend, and the rally in the US stock market on Monday, we were a bit surprised that the Transportation Index failed to move dramatically higher following the global markets.\u00a0 This leads us to believe investors were taking advantage of a pricing issue related to the G20 and US\/China trade war news that was not rooted in strength seen in the global economy.\u00a0 In other words, buy the rumor, sell the news.\u00a0 It would appear the rumor hit the markets Sunday in Tokyo and the news hit the US markets on Monday.<\/p>\n

We talked about the G20 meeting results and how G20 will move gold and the US stock indexes<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n

Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
<\/div>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Skilled technical traders already know we must be cautious near these current all-time highs.\u00a0 Volatility can increase dramatically on news or other earnings data which may drive prices higher or lower over the next few weeks.\u00a0 As we start July (Q3) 2019, we should be preparing for earnings data to be released over the next 30+ days as well as continued news related to global trade issues.\u00a0 Additionally, the items which will be sold for Christmas and the holidays are already being shipped across the globe and being distributed to warehouses over the next few months prior to the start of the holiday season.<\/p>\n

Historically, July through September are somewhat weak for the Transportation Index.\u00a0 Overall, the Transportation Index loses approximately 500 to 600 points over this 90-day span with a range (potentially) of over $3000 points in volatility.\u00a0 Bullish trending strength returns in October and November where the Transportation Index typically rallies approximately $5000 pts with a volatility range of about $7000 points.\u00a0 These historical trends suggest we could see quite a bit of volatility over the next 90 days with a decent chance at seeing a downward price move targeting recent December 2018 lows.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:<\/h3>\n

In previous articles, we\u2019ve suggested a simple trade setup technique we use to identify entry and exit points<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move.\u00a0 If this move holds true for the Transportation Index, then a move to levels near $8250 is about to unfold based on the move from Sept 2019 to Dec 2019.\u00a0 It would make sense that this move would likely happen between now and September 2019 \u2013 followed by a solid rally into the end of 2019 as our historical data suggests.<\/p>\n

Now is the time to stay on top of these moves and to target the opportunity these bigger price rotations provide for technical traders.\u00a0 Simply put, we have just described a downside price move of about $2000 points in the Transportation Index followed by an upside price move of over $4000 to $5000 points.\u00a0 You don\u2019t want to miss this one, folks.<\/p>\n

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide:\u00a02020 Cycles \u2013 The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive\/life-changing if handled properly.<\/p>\n

I urge you to visit my\u00a0Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a\u00a0FREE BAR OF GOLD<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis\u2019.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nTheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com Any weakness in the Transportation Index near current levels would indicate investors and traders believe the global economy may continue to contract going forward and may be an ominous sign for the global stock markets. The Transportation Index is a measure of the current expectations related to shipping, trucking, trains and all measure […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150755"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":150760,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150755\/revisions\/150760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}