{"id":150690,"date":"2019-07-01T11:20:05","date_gmt":"2019-07-01T15:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=150690"},"modified":"2019-07-01T10:55:30","modified_gmt":"2019-07-01T14:55:30","slug":"part-ii-are-real-estate-etfs-the-next-big-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/07\/part-ii-are-real-estate-etfs-the-next-big-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Part II \u2013 Are Real Estate ETF\u2019s The Next Big Trade?"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 1, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

In part I<\/strong><\/a> of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.\u00a0 It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments may be shifting away from US real estate as tell-tale signs of stress are starting to show.\u00a0 Foreclosures and price drops are one of the first signs that stress exists in the markets and we believe the real estate segment could be setting up for an incredible trade opportunity.<\/p>\n

SRS, the Proshares Ultrashort Real Estate EFT has recently completed a unique \u201cwashout low\u201d price bottom that we believe may become an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.\u00a0 If the US Fed pushes the market into a panic mode, sellers will become even more desperate to offload their homes and buyers will become even more discerning in terms of selecting what and when to buy.<\/p>\n

Our opinion is that the recent \u201cwashout low\u201d price bottom in SRS is very likely to be a unique \u201cscouting party\u201d low\/bottom that may set up a very big move to the upside over the next 4 to 12+ months.\u00a0 If our research is correct, the continued forward navigation for the US Fed, global central banks and the average consumers buying and selling homes is about to become very volatile.<\/p>\n

If SRS moves above the $25.50 level, our first upside Fibonacci price target and clears the $24.25 previous peak set in April 2019, it would be a very clear indication that a risk trade in Real Estate is back in play.\u00a0 Ideally, price holding above the $21.65 level would provide a very clear level of support negating any future price weakness below $21.50.<\/p>\n

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This weekly SRS chart highlights what we believe to be the optimal BUY ZONE and the upside price targets near $28 to $29.\u00a0 Since the bottom in 2009-10, after the credit market crisis, we have not seen any substantial risk in the Real Estate market for over 8+ years.\u00a0 Now, though, it is our opinion that this risk trade is very real and that technical trader should be aware of this potential move and what it means to protect assets and wealth.<\/p>

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If our research proves to be accurate and any future move by the US Fed will prompt a \u201crush to the exits\u201d by home sellers, then there is really only one course of action left for us to consider.\u00a0 Either the Fed will reduce rates, buying some at-risk sellers a bit of time before a rush to sell overwhelms the markets and prices begin a fast decline in an attempt to secure quick buyers; or the Fed will leave rates at current levels where at-risk sellers will continue to attempt to offload their homes to any willing buyers before declining prices and panicked sellers start the \u201crace to the bottom\u201d in terms of pricing.<\/p>\n

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CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:<\/h3>\n

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.\u00a0 There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point \u2013 the \u201cprice revaluation cycle\u201d.\u00a0 This is where the opportunity lies with our suggested SRS trade setup.<\/p>\n

We believe this bottom in SRS will result in a few more weeks of trading near price support (above $20 and below $22.50) where traders will be able to acquire their positions.\u00a0 The bigger move will happen as risk becomes more evident \u2013 very similar to what has recently happened in Gold. Once that risk is visible to traders\/investors, the upside potentials ($28+ to $42+) won\u2019t seem so illogical any longer.<\/p>\n

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide:\u00a02020 Cycles \u2013 The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull\/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive\/life-changing if handled properly.<\/p>\n

I urge you to visit my\u00a0Wealth Building Newsletter<\/strong>\u00a0and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD<\/a><\/strong> and\u00a0ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis\u2019.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com In part I of this research post, we highlighted how the shifting landscape of the US real estate market may be setting up an incredible trading opportunity for technical traders.\u00a0 It is our belief that the continued capital shift which has been driving foreign investment into US assets, real estate, and other investments […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":150691,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150690\/revisions\/150691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}