{"id":150487,"date":"2019-06-28T14:05:58","date_gmt":"2019-06-28T18:05:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=150487"},"modified":"2019-06-28T12:09:40","modified_gmt":"2019-06-28T16:09:40","slug":"the-week-ahead-friday-28th-june-2019-currency-point-usd-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/06\/the-week-ahead-friday-28th-june-2019-currency-point-usd-trades\/","title":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead: Friday 28th June 2019 \u2013 Currency Point: USD trades"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-723417004\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">June 28, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"section-header\">\n<h3>Currency Point: USD trades<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_2876\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gZvqV595Ba4\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><b>Trade idea: Sell USD\/JPY<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Enter: above \u00a5108, Stop at \u00a5111.00, Target \u00a51.04<\/p>\n<p>Opening a trade in USD\/JPY after a jump up in the pair over the past week or so that is creating an entry point. The outlook from the Federal Reserve around rates is putting real pressure on the USD with the market is pricing in 4 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by June 2020 and a 65% chance the first cut will come this month.<\/p>\n<p>The US outlook is also worrying from a currency perspective as corporate earnings are starting to disappoint, forward indicators such as the Empire State PMI, Jobs claims and Building Surveys are beginning to slide. Risk off flows look likely and flows to safety are growing.<\/p>\n<p>Risk for the trade: Trade wars abate.<\/p><div id=\"inves-4062543290\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><b>Trade Idea: Buy AUD\/USD (Post RBA meeting)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Enter: below $0.70, Stop: $0.6840 (recent low), Target $0.7280<\/p>\n<p>Market currently pricing a 25-basis point cut at Tuesday\u2019s RBA meeting at 78%. The market has completely priced in a further 50 basis points out of the cash rate by December 2019.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>However, the flow in the pair is heavily skewed to the USD side and the likely unwinding of USD longs over the coming month with the Federal Reserve in play puts upside into the pair. The RBA governor Philip Lowe highlighted this exact point last week stating that if all central banks are looking to stimulus simultaneously those smaller players (Australia) will not see the economic benefit of a lower currency.<\/p>\n<p>Risk for the trade: Iron ore prices falling back below US$100 a tonne, trade wars intensify.<\/p>\n<p><b>Trade Idea: Sell USD\/CAD<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Enter: above $1.32, Stop: $1.338, Target $1.291<\/p>\n<p>Pair should trade lower over the coming months as Canadian economics remains robust even in the face of a slowing global market while the US is slowing. Governor Poloz should be happy core inflation came in above expectations at the recent release and that should see the Bank of Canada on hold for the coming period. Couple this with Canadian corporate earnings which are holding the line \u2013 CAD looks attractive.<\/p>\n<p>We also expect the unwinding of USD long positions to drive this position lower.<\/p>\n<p>Risk to the trade: negative outcomes from G20, collapse of oil below $50 a barrel.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Currency Point: USD trades Trade idea: Sell USD\/JPY Enter: above \u00a5108, Stop at \u00a5111.00, Target \u00a51.04 Opening a trade in USD\/JPY after a jump up in the pair over the past week or so that is creating an entry point. The outlook from the Federal Reserve around rates is putting real [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150487"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":150488,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150487\/revisions\/150488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}