{"id":149380,"date":"2019-06-11T08:30:06","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T12:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=149380"},"modified":"2019-06-11T07:24:52","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T11:24:52","slug":"its-not-just-uk-politics-dragging-the-pound-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/06\/its-not-just-uk-politics-dragging-the-pound-down\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s Not Just UK Politics Dragging The Pound Down"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 11, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

UK\u2019s Leadership Contest Officially Begins<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Right now, there are whopping\u00a010 lead candidates<\/strong>\u00a0gunning for Theresa May\u2019s title at Downing Street.<\/p>\n

Nominations for the position took place on Monday, requiring support from 313 Tory MPs to proceed. The biggest party battle to choose the next Conservative Prime Minister took center stage last Friday when the UK PM\u00a0officially resigned<\/a>\u00a0after giving in to political pressures over her Brexit failure.<\/p>\n

The nominated Tory MPs will go through the\u00a0first vote on June 13th<\/strong>\u00a0(first ballot). Then,\u00a0the\u00a0second vote will be on June 18th<\/strong>\u00a0(second ballot,) with the 19th and 20th of June kept for further ballots if required.<\/p>\n

Finally, from June 22nd onwards, the two remaining candidates will battle until the party\u2019s 160,000 members decide who of the two is going to be eliminated on the July 22nd vote.<\/p>\n

Borris Johnson Builds Up Support, Gove and Hunt Close<\/strong><\/h2>\n

As it stands, 110 out of 313 MPs have yet to declare their support for Tory candidates. And only\u00a05 make it beyond the first ballot threshold of 16 votes<\/strong>\u00a0(the second ballot requires the support of 332 MPs).<\/p>

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Boris Johnson (57), Michael Gove (31), Jeremy Hunt (29), Dominic Raab (22) and Sajid Javid (18). Despite the 110-vote gap, the two candidates that seem to be running the two-finalist July race are Johnson and Hunt.<\/p>\n

The former is running on an end of October \u201cleave\u201d and has\u00a067% odds of winning<\/strong>\u00a0the nomination. The latter, seen as the main challenger regardless of his \u201cremain\u201d support, is now warning of the risk of\u00a0leaving without a deal.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>Hunt has recently won over Penny Mordaunt and Amber Rudd\u2019s support too, but odds tracker report only a\u00a07% chance of winning.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Corbyn Criticised at PLP Meeting After Election Performance<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Political turmoil seems to be letting\u00a0uncertainty grow<\/strong>\u00a0once again not only over the \u2018takeover\u2019 platform but also\u00a0amid party-politics<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Labour campaigners, and particularly the \u201cLabour For A Public Vote\u201d group, are planning to\u00a0ambush Corbyn<\/strong>\u00a0in an attempt to prevent a repetition of last year\u2019s disappointment at the party\u2019s annual \u201ccompositing\u201d meeting.<\/p>\n

The group now demands a\u00a0change in the party\u2019s position on Brexit<\/strong>, and that could end up in a rerun of the 2016 party-policy vote. Corbyn wants to avoid this as he now\u00a0leans towards a general election<\/strong>\u00a0rather than a second referendum option. However, his\u00a0leadership is being challenged<\/strong>\u00a0from all sides.<\/p>\n

On Monday night, at the weekly Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP), Corbyn was\u00a0criticized on his failure to end anti-semitism and for crashing in the party in the European elections.<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK GDP, Production and Construction ALL Down<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Monday\u2019s\u00a0GDP growth weakened<\/strong>\u00a0over the past three months from -0.1% to -0.4%. This was primarily on\u00a0poor car production<\/strong>\u00a0figures and ahead of the UK\u2019s departure of the EU as\u00a0production sites keep shutting down<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing also fell<\/strong>\u00a0in April, contracting to -3.9%, as a result of a decrease in orders\u00a0due to UK\u2019s departure extension<\/strong>. Construction declined as well in April on a month to month basis, owed to a big\u00a0fall in repair and maintenance.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pound Under Pressure Below $1.28<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Uncertainty surrounding the UK\u2019s leadership battle, party politics and now Monday\u2019s poor economic data will\u00a0most likely keep bears on track<\/strong>\u00a0to reaching lower levels. Having corrected down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement ($1.2660), this could trigger another upside move to\u00a0end the bullish impulse near $1.2850<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In the short-term both RSI and MACD support such a scenario as they have formed a\u00a0bullish hidden divergence<\/strong>\u00a0signal that could take prices above $1.2763. If wave 5 (v) competed by the aforementioned high though, we could be looking at a\u00a0downslide<\/strong>\u00a0sooner than expected, with a\u00a0bullish invalidation at the $1.2560<\/strong>\u00a0level.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex UK\u2019s Leadership Contest Officially Begins Right now, there are whopping\u00a010 lead candidates\u00a0gunning for Theresa May\u2019s title at Downing Street. Nominations for the position took place on Monday, requiring support from 313 Tory MPs to proceed. The biggest party battle to choose the next Conservative Prime Minister took center stage last Friday when the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-149380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=149380"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":149401,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149380\/revisions\/149401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=149380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=149380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=149380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}