{"id":149178,"date":"2019-06-07T07:32:57","date_gmt":"2019-06-07T11:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=149178"},"modified":"2019-06-07T07:29:41","modified_gmt":"2019-06-07T11:29:41","slug":"could-gold-rally-above-3750-before-december-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/06\/could-gold-rally-above-3750-before-december-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Gold Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019?"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 7, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

We asked our researchers a question recently, \u201cCould Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?\u201d.\u00a0 We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.\u00a0 We wanted to hear what they thought it would take for a move like this to happen and if they could support their conclusions with factual conjecture.<\/p>\n

Now we ask you to review these findings and ask yourself the same question.\u00a0 What would it take for Gold to rally above $3750 (over 200% from current levels) and why do you believe it is possible?<\/p>\n

Our research team came to two primary conclusions in support of a Gold price move above $3750 :<\/p>\n

A)\u00a0\u00a0 The US Presidential election cycle\/political environment could prompt a vicious global economic contraction cycle of fear and protectionist consumer and corporate activity that propels the global economy into a deflationary (mini-crisis) event.<\/p>\n

B) \u00a0\u00a0The global trade wars could complicated item A (the US Presidential election cycle) and create an accelerating component to this global political event.\u00a0 The result is the mini-crisis could turn into \u201c
\na bit more\u201d than a mini-crisis if the global trade wars prompt further economic contraction and disrupt global economic activities further.<\/p>

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Our research team suggested the following as key elements to watch out for in terms of \u201csetting up the perfect storm\u201d in the global markets.<\/p>\n

A)\u00a0 The US Dollar falls below $94 and continues to push a bit lower.\u00a0 This would show signs that the US Dollar is losing strength around the world<\/p>\n

B)\u00a0 The Transportation Index falls below $4350 and begins a bigger breakdown in price trend \u2013 targeting the $3000 level.\u00a0 This would indicate that global trade and transportation is collapsing back to 2007-08 levels.<\/p>\n

C)\u00a0 Oil collapses below $45 would be a certain sign that global Oil demand has completely collapsed and the sub-$40 level would very quickly come into perspective as a target.<\/p>\n

D)\u00a0 Global Financial stability is threatened by Debt\/Credit issues while any of the above are taking place.\u00a0 Should any of the A, B or C items begin to take form over the next few weeks or months while some type of extended debt or credit crisis event is unfolding, it would add a tremendous increase of fear into the metals markets.<\/p>\n

Our researchers believe the US Dollar is safe above the $91 level throughout the end of 2019 and that any downside risk to the US Dollar would come in brief price rotations as deflationary aspects of the global economy are identified. In other words, at this time, we don\u2019t believe the US Dollar will come under any severe downside pricing pressures throughout the end of 2019.\u00a0 We do believe a downside price move in the US Dollar may be setting up between now and early July 2019, but we strongly believe the $91 to $93 level is strong support for the long term.<\/p>\n

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The Gold Spot price \/ the US Dollar price chart highlights the incredible upside price move in Gold after 2001-02.\u00a0 It was almost a perfect storm of events that took place after this time to prompt a move like this to the upside.\u00a0 Not only did we have multiple US based economic crisis events, we also had a series of global economic \u201cshifts\u201d taking place where capital and assets were migrating all across the globe searching for superior returns.\u00a0 Could this happen again??\u00a0 Of course it could.\u00a0 Although, we believe the next move in precious metals will be met with a completely different set of circumstances \u2013 very likely targeting foreign nations and not the US economy.<\/p>\n

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This SPDR GLD chart shows a moderately safer play for investors and traders.\u00a0 The potential for a 20%+ upside price move over the next 60+ days is quite likely and our belief is that traders should be able to trade GLD throughout many of the upside and downside price rotations over the next few weeks and months.\u00a0 Ultimately, if you are skilled enough to pick proper entries, a decent trader could focus on GLD and pick up 65% to 120% ROI over a 7 to 12 month span of time.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Our Last Gold Forecast From October 2018 Unfolding Perfectly<\/a><\/em> \u2013<\/p>\n

Pay attention to where the opportunities are for your level of skill and capital.\u00a0 As we\u2019ve been saying for many months, 2019 and 2020 will be fantastic years for active traders.\u00a0 Stick with what you can execute and trade well because there will be dozens of trades available to most traders over the next 16+ months.<\/p>\n

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Overall, our research team believes that precious metals have just begun to move higher on a WAVE C impulse move.\u00a0 We authored a research post suggesting that Gold and Silver were currently 20 to 30% undervalued back in late May 2019.\u00a0 The current upside move in Gold and Silver may be just the beginning of a much bigger move.<\/p>\n

Ideally, we believe this initial impulse move will end above $1650.\u00a0 From these current levels, that reflects a 25% to 30% upside move in GLD.\u00a0 If any of the fear-inducing items, listed above, begin to take shape over the next 12+ months, we could certainly see Gold above $2100 before too long.\u00a0 $3750 may seem like \u201cshooting for the stars\u201d, but all it takes is a combination of fear and deflation\/inflation to drive investors into a gold-hoarding mode just like we saw after 2003-2004 \u2013 and that move prompted a 500% price rally from the $300 base level. That same move today would put the current price of Gold near $7800.\u00a0 It might seem like it could never happen \u2013 but it could.<\/p>\n

Bottom line, we forecast the markets and share some extreme analysis like this to open your eyes to some potential opportunities. But, you cannot just jump into gold or miners after reading this and think you are set for success. The markets are never that simple. You must actively adjust and trade with the market and our daily video analysis is what will keep you on the right side of the market more times than not. This week, we locked in some profits on our long gold ETF, and gold miners ETF, why? because our analysis says both of these are at resistance and could pullback before heading higher. We don\u2019t buy, hope and hold, we enter positions, lock-in profits, rinse, and repeat over and over again.<\/p>\n

Get my daily video analysis and trade alerts today by subscribing to the Wealth Building Newsletter.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nTheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com We asked our researchers a question recently, \u201cCould Gold rally above $3750 before the end of 2019?\u201d.\u00a0 We wanted to see what type of research they would bring to the table that could support a move like this of nearly 200% from current levels.\u00a0 We wanted to hear what they thought it would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-149178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=149178"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149178\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":149179,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149178\/revisions\/149179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=149178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=149178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=149178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}