{"id":149082,"date":"2019-06-05T20:40:47","date_gmt":"2019-06-06T00:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=149082"},"modified":"2019-06-06T07:11:32","modified_gmt":"2019-06-06T11:11:32","slug":"fear-drives-market-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/06\/fear-drives-market-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Fear Drives Market Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 5, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again.\u00a0 We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place.\u00a0 We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now.<\/p>\n

As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019.\u00a0 Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened.\u00a0 The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

It seems that everyone is trying to pick a top or call the big crash right now.\u00a0 Back in November 2018, it seemed like every professional trader we knew was advising their client \u201cThis is the BIG ONE\u201d and suggesting the US markets could never recover from a deep sell-off like the one we experienced in late 2018.\u00a0 Yet, here we are, after reaching near all-time highs again, rotating a bit lower and the same voices seem to be stating \u201cThis is the BIG ONE\u201d again.<\/p>\n

Allow us to help clear up what is likely to happen based on our research and proprietary modeling tools.<\/p>\n

This first chart of the VIX (Volatility Index) shows what we believe to be the most likely outcome over the next 30+ days.\u00a0 After a spike in the VIX in early may which our followers profited over 25% in a few days, we believe a downward pricing channel will set up where the VIX will continue to drift lower \u2013 eventually settling back below 14 again for another setup.\u00a0 It is very likely that this volatility consolidation coincides with a US stock market price recovery over the same span of time.\u00a0 We\u2019ll get into more detail in the following charts.<\/p>

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Eventually, sometime in mid-July or mid-August, we expect the VIX to spike well above 20 to 22 as a broader US stock market price collapse takes place.<\/p>\n

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Throughout our expectations, we expect the US Dollar to enter a similar type of price pattern \u2013 setting up a Pennant formation after a moderately deep price correction nearing the $95 level.\u00a0 We believe the US Dollar will continue to move lower, driving precious metals higher, where the $95 support level is the key target.\u00a0 Once this level is reached, we believe the US Dollar will rotate higher and attempt a move above $97.50 again \u2013 possibly attempting new price highs.\u00a0 These new highs are likely to happen in early to mid July 2019.<\/p>\n

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Our last chart highlights what we believe will happen in the Dow Jones Index (as a general market example of what will likely happen in the ES, NQ and YM).\u00a0 As you can see, we believe the downside price swing that has currently taken price nearly -7.25% lower should be very close to completion.\u00a0 We believe the $24,300 to $24,600 level will act as strong support for this move and prompt another upside price leg over the next 7 to 14 days.\u00a0 We believe this upside price leg will push the DJI price level back towards the $26,000 level by late July or early August 2019.<\/p>\n

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We are suggesting that the early move into a protectionist stance by professional traders may be about to experience some extreme pressures.\u00a0 Should the US\/China trade issue or the Mexico trade issue lessen or be resolved over the next 60+ days, the US stock markets could rally towards new highs fairly quickly.\u00a0 If things stay the same as they are now, we expect price to move exactly as we have highlighted on these charts.<\/p>\n

Near the end of July or sometime in August 2019, we expect a bigger top formation to setup where a moderate price collapse may take place.\u00a0 Everything must setup perfectly for this to happen and we still have 40 to 60+ days of trading before this setup gets closer.\u00a0 Lots of things can happen over this span of time, so pay attention to our continued research to stay ahead of these moves.<\/p>\n

One thing you can do to prepare for any future price volatility or rotation is to accumulate Gold and Silver positions near recent lows. If you like precious metals see my forecasting signals here<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 This increase in volatility means that precious metals should continue to push higher as fear becomes more rooted across the globe.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve now shown you two different price setups using Fibonacci price theory and the only thing we have to do is wait for a technical price confirmation before finding our entry trade.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see how this plays out over the next few days and weeks.\u00a0 Remember, we are not proposing these as \u201cmajor price bottoms\u201d. They are \u201cupside pullback trades\u201d (bounces) at this point.\u00a0 A bullish price pullback in a downtrend.<\/p>\n

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND\u00a0<\/a>
\nTRADE WHAT MATTERS \u2013 PRICE ACTION!\u00a0<\/a>
\nCLICK HERE<\/a><\/h3>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again.\u00a0 We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-149082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=149082"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149082\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":149083,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/149082\/revisions\/149083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=149082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=149082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=149082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}