{"id":148985,"date":"2019-06-04T11:36:50","date_gmt":"2019-06-04T15:36:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=148985"},"modified":"2019-06-04T11:36:50","modified_gmt":"2019-06-04T15:36:50","slug":"second-half-of-2019-expect-the-unexpected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/06\/second-half-of-2019-expect-the-unexpected\/","title":{"rendered":"Second Half of 2019 \u2013 Expect The Unexpected"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 4, 2019<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.\u00a0 Over the past 16+ months, we\u2019ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.\u00a0 In February\/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.\u00a0 Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted.\u00a0 In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an \u201cultimate bottom\u201d near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again.\u00a0 At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows.\u00a0 Guess what happened?\u00a0 The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve recently called the precious metals move perfectly<\/strong><\/a> with our originating research being done in October 2018.\u00a0 We called the Oil downturn in 2018 as well as the rally starting near December 2018.\u00a0 Now, we are going to share with you some incredible market insights and help you prepare for what will likely become the most frustrating next six months of trading for everyone.<\/p>\n

Why is it going to be frustrating?\u00a0 Because everyone has already made up their minds as to what they expect to happen in the markets and WHY.\u00a0 We read a report today from an analyst that suggested he \u201cmoved into a defensive position and initiated positions in Inverse ETFs and Put Options\u201d.\u00a0 Probably a smart move if he timed it right.\u00a0 What he\u2019s going to do over the next 6 months will either make him a king or a pauper.<\/p>\n

The fact is that the US stock market has initiated a very moderate downside price rotation recently and multiple levels of support must be breached before we could consider any of the recent downside pricing pressure as a \u201cmajor trend reversal\u201d.\u00a0 We believe many of these analysts are hyperventilating with regards to this move and seeing what they want to see from it \u2013 THE BEAR MARKET.<\/p>\n

At this time, we do not agree with this narrative.\u00a0 Yes, the US stock market is under pricing pressure.\u00a0 The US\/China trade deal is far from completed and the new US\/Mexico tariffs are sure to roil the markets. Europe has just completed EU elections and must continue to navigate the hard questions of future management and opportunity with a BREXIT hanging over everyone\u2019s heads.\u00a0 The Prime Minister of Malaysia is calling for a new \u201cgold backed SE Asian currency\u201d to help prevent the wild currency valuations as Malaysia saw in the mid-1990s.\u00a0 The US Presidential election cycle is just 15 months away and it is sure to be a blood-bath in some ways.<\/p>

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Could it be the start of the bear market??\u00a0 Maybe, but our research suggests otherwise.<\/p>\n

Our research suggests there is still another chance that the US stock market could bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again.\u00a0 Be cautious about how we stated this\u2026\u00a0 \u201ccould bottom after these recent lows find support and rally back to near all-time highs again\u201d does not mean \u201crally beyond recent highs\u201d or \u201canother leg to the upside will take place\u201d.\u00a0 It means that we believe the current support will prompt a brief price rally back to \u201cnear all-time highs\u201d before the end of August 2019.<\/p>\n

This Weekly ES chart highlights the support levels we are watching and the peak zone near $2961.\u00a0 We believe the current support levels will attempt to provide a floor for price above $2630 and will prompt an upside price channel that will likely see price climb higher from recent lows.<\/p>\n

The bottom line here for the broad stock market is that we should see bounce over the next couple weeks, then we follow the market higher with a big rally or short a collapse in price.<\/p>\n

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This chart is a little noisy with analysis and our custom indicator<\/strong> lines but it shows key analysis levels. The same type of setup is also taking place in the NQ \u2013 although we believe the NQ may have a bit further downside price risk than the ES or YM at the moment. We believe the support levels near $6800\u00a0 and $6400 will act as a price floor and attempt to drive price moderately higher over the next 25 to 45 days.\u00a0 We believe the NQ will come under increased price pressure because of a capital rotation away from risk in Technology and future risk factors.<\/p>\n

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The YM is setting up very similar to the ES.\u00a0 Very clear support and the current price level is still relatively bullish compared to the two most recent bigger downside price moves.\u00a0 The idea that analysts could call this \u201cThe Big One\u201d with little to know price confirmation is very confusing.\u00a0 We believe support above $23,400 will likely hold and price will begin a moderate upside price move (within a channel\/pennant formation) over the next 25 to 40+ days in the YM.<\/p>\n

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One very clear exception to this analysis would be a very clear price breakdown below the lowest support level while attempting to target the December 2018 lows.\u00a0 Should this happen over the next 30 to 60 days without any sign of the support rotation and upward price channel we are expecting, then we would consider this analysis to have failed and we could be looking at a much bigger downside price move in the US stock markets.\u00a0 At this point, we don\u2019t believe this will happen UNLESS some massive US or foreign crisis event unfolds over the next 30 to 60+ days.<\/p>\n

We believe a shift in the \u201cCapital Shift\u201d process we have been discussing for the past 2+ years is still taking place.\u00a0 This is a \u201crisk off\u201d move prompted by a renewed FEAR level and currency price trends over the past 6+ months.<\/p>\n

This currency chart clearly shows everyone is selling their currency and moving into what they believe is the safest currency which is the USD.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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We believe Capital Shift process will go through a weakening process while fear drives investors out of high performing assets. This process will likely shift back towards searching for undervalued US equities as global investors seek new opportunities after these support levels prompt a base.\u00a0 The hunt to find returns will eventually lead everyone back into the US stock market as there is too much turmoil in the global markets currently.<\/p>\n

If you missed this move, sit back and wait for these support levels to settle and then look for new trade opportunities.\u00a0 There will be lots of time to get into the BIG SHORT TRADE when it finally sets up and confirms.<\/p>\n

BECOME A TECHNICAL TRADER TODAY AND\u00a0<\/a>
\nTRADE WHAT MATTERS \u2013 PRICE ACTION!\u00a0<\/a>
\nCLICK HERE<\/a><\/h3>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nTechnical Traders Ltd.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger.\u00a0 Over the past 16+ months, we\u2019ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance.\u00a0 In February\/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=148985"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148985\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":148986,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148985\/revisions\/148986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=148985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=148985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=148985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}