{"id":148740,"date":"2019-05-31T15:15:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-31T19:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=148740"},"modified":"2019-06-01T09:34:46","modified_gmt":"2019-06-01T13:34:46","slug":"the-week-ahead-friday-31st-may-2019-currency-point-central-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/05\/the-week-ahead-friday-31st-may-2019-currency-point-central-week\/","title":{"rendered":"The Week Ahead: Friday 31st May 2019 \u2013 Currency Point: Central Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2720893936\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">May 31, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"section-header\">\n<h3>Currency Point: Central Week<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_7197\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ooVRxx7Dglw\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><b>Currency Point: Central Week<\/b><\/p>\n<p><em>Event Risk: ECB Rates Decision \u2013 No move expected market watching for commentary around\u00a0ECB QE programs\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Watching: German CPI, Eurozone PMIs, European GDP, German IP<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Data: May produced better than expected economic data with has stabilised the EUR\u2019s\u00a0decline. However, there is a clear scepticism in markets and economists alike about\u00a0 Europe\u2019s \u2018growth recovery\u2019 due to the US-China trade issues and a President threating European tariffs this growth does not appear sustainable \u2013 EUR headwinds.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>ECB: Expect dovish communications from the ECB this week and when you coupled this with carry trade funding issue for the EUR over the medium term the EUR remains a bearish play.<\/p><div id=\"inves-939424210\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>The interim caveat is that if risk assets continue to unwind slightly one should expect an unwind some of EUR funded carry trades, so some possible buy backs. A \u2018sell the dips\u2019 trade\u00a0 might be a good option.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AUD<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>Event risk: RBA Rate Decision \u2013 question is how many cuts will the bank enact in 2019 not if\u00a0 they will cut on Tuesday as it\u2019s a certainty.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Watching: Retail Sales, GDP, Trade balance, Home Loan application data<\/p>\n<p>GDP: First quarter GDP is likely to follow the final half of 2018 with below trend growth. Last\u00a0week\u2019s CAPEX data underperformed both the market consensus and the RBA\u2019s forecasts\u00a0which confirms the markets expectations that Wednesday release will be 1.6% year-on-\u00a0year.<\/p>\n<p>Rates: Markets has a \u2018locked in\u2019 2 rate cuts come December 2019 with a 40% chance of a third all this is AUD negative.<\/p>\n<p>However, there is a caveat, bulk commodities are outperforming forecasts, iron ore hit over US$100 a tonne last week and there are signs net exports will continue to support overall\u00a0 GDP. Economic weakness is present, it just might not be as large as some are forecasting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>JPY<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>Watching: Tokyo CPI, IP, Capital Spending, Labour Cash Earnings, Leading Index<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Risk off: In a market of risk aversion and global risk JPY does remain attractive. The issues of the US-China trade war, global growth and the constant yield inversions across the global\u00a0bond markets have FX markets looking to safe haven plays. Sentiment indicators suggest the\u00a0JPY is nowhere near \u2018extreme\u2019 levels, thus there is further room in USDJPY and JPY crosses.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Currency Point: Central Week Currency Point: Central Week Event Risk: ECB Rates Decision \u2013 No move expected market watching for commentary around\u00a0ECB QE programs\u00a0 Watching: German CPI, Eurozone PMIs, European GDP, German IP Data: May produced better than expected economic data with has stabilised the EUR\u2019s\u00a0decline. However, there is a clear [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-148740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=148740"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":148741,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/148740\/revisions\/148741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=148740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=148740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=148740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}