{"id":147423,"date":"2019-05-10T13:14:49","date_gmt":"2019-05-10T17:14:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=147423"},"modified":"2019-05-10T08:17:08","modified_gmt":"2019-05-10T12:17:08","slug":"the-trade-week-ahead-currency-point-trade-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/05\/the-trade-week-ahead-currency-point-trade-review\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trade Week Ahead \u2013 Currency Point: Trade review"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-3861183668\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">May 10, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><div class=\"section-header\">\n<p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_2306\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LDLqp6bR0Rk\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Currency Point: Trade review<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Closed: Short AUD\/USD<br \/>\n<\/strong><br \/>\nClosing out the short call, the spike caused by US-China trade issues pushed pair into the 69c handle as the near-term uncertainty around the further imposition of tariffs hit the AUD.<\/p>\n<p>However, it also now creates upside risk as a \u2018deal\u2019 (real or otherwise) will likely cause a spike in the opposite direction \u2013 risk.<\/p>\n<p>Secondly, the Fed as expected has held the line around its current position on the Federal Funds rate and maintained its slight hiking bias this in my view is \u2018holding\u2019 the USD across\u00a0the board.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The RBA as expect held off cutting rate at its May meeting something we expected.<\/p>\n<p>However, they are more \u2018neutral\u2019 than the market expected and from my view if they are to cut rate it\u2019s not likely to happen until August, which moderates near term moves in the AUD.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, closing out the short call as pair is likely to drift now and should moderate in a tight range of 70-71c. There are better value trades elsewhere.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1516405664\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20610\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/WA-100519.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"353\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>New idea: Short EUR\/JPY<\/strong><br \/>\nEntry: Y123.7 with a Stop Loss at Y126.00 with a target of Y119.00<\/p>\n<p>Two sides to this trade \u2013 first the JPY side and its \u2018safe-haven\u2019 position.<\/p>\n<p>JPY will benefit if trade tensions persist and US market volatility continues to shift up as it\u00a0 has in the past few weeks. In fact, markets generally are \u2018underweight\u2019 volatility on the idea central bank policy will save the day. However, the past two weeks has shown that this \u2018white knight\u2019 scenario isn\u2019t as \u2018certain\u2019 as markets have price in and the potential for increased volatility in the short term needs to be respected \u2013 a JPY positive.<\/p>\n<p>Flipping to the EUR side what you might not be aware of is a mid-May deadline related to potential auto tariffs on European exports. If the US was to move on European car<br \/>\nmanufactures the EUR will spike lower.<\/p>\n<p>Then there are the general headwinds to the EUR that continue to persist \u2013 economic growth remains underwhelming.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, the EUR is clearly being used as a carry trade funding source, several reports over\u00a0the past month have shown a solid increase in corporate issuance of debt with the EUR a core currency of issuance \u2013 EUR negative.<\/p>\n<p>The risk to this trade is the flip side of all stated scenarios, volatility reducing, no tariffs, the Eurozone actually seeing economic growth etc. which is why your stop-loss is core to this\u00a0trade.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-20611\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/WA-100519A-550x337.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/WA-100519A-550x337.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/WA-100519A.jpg 562w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"337\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By FPMarkets.com Currency Point: Trade review Closed: Short AUD\/USD Closing out the short call, the spike caused by US-China trade issues pushed pair into the 69c handle as the near-term uncertainty around the further imposition of tariffs hit the AUD. However, it also now creates upside risk as a \u2018deal\u2019 (real or otherwise) will likely [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-147423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=147423"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147423\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":147424,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/147423\/revisions\/147424"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=147423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=147423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=147423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}