{"id":146320,"date":"2019-04-23T12:00:38","date_gmt":"2019-04-23T16:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=146320"},"modified":"2019-04-23T11:29:24","modified_gmt":"2019-04-23T15:29:24","slug":"silver-sentiment-is-it-your-friend-or-foe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/04\/silver-sentiment-is-it-your-friend-or-foe\/","title":{"rendered":"Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe?"},"content":{"rendered":"
April 23, 2019<\/div>
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By Money Metals News Service<\/b><\/p>\n

The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006.<\/p>\n

The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who “kept the faith,” before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.<\/p>\n

Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, “everyone knew” it was going to $100.<\/p>\n

A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.<\/p>\n

Silver’s “sandpaper decline,” 2011-16.<\/h2>\n

Holding physical metal was no fun, but some did have the courage to buy more, scale down. Mining stocks were a devastating proposition, with 80%-90% declines the norm.<\/p>

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The 2016 run up shocked just about everyone… Weeks and weeks of prices moving up almost in every trading session. Until June, that is. Then a two-year decline wiped out most of those gains and kicked to the curb more than a few long-term silver stackers who finally threw in the towel.<\/p>\n

This writer understands how they \u2013 and you<\/u> \u2013 feel.<\/h2>\n

I’ve been involved in the silver market since 1972 and have pretty much seen it all. I experienced it dropping from $50 an ounce in January 1980 and waited for 22 years to see it begin a new bull run from below $5 an ounce. I remember the euphoria of the near-$50 print in 2011. And, like everyone else, I’ve felt the pain since then.<\/p>\n

What Now?<\/h2>\n

I think the most common reason that a plan fails, or doesn’t even start, is due to not carefully working through the OODA Loop<\/a> \u2013 Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act.<\/p>\n

But there’s another powerful factor standing in the way of success for so many investors.<\/p>\n

It has to do with allowing Sentiment<\/i> to drive investment decisions. In other words, when the overall market tone is negative, there is a tendency to either wait until the coast is clear, or until some magical “lower price point” arrives on the charts.<\/p>\n

The problem is that instead, either the price moves up to where you thought it would \u2013 for a bigger risk and lower profit potential \u2013 or if it does drop, you decide to wait for even lower prices. Either way, it almost guarantees that you won’t act.<\/p>\n

The reality is that going against sentiment<\/u> is a great way to lower risk and increase the odds of a bigger payout down the line.<\/p>\n

There’s Power in the Rule of Three<\/h2>\n

Reduce anxiety by mentally dividing your physical metals’ holdings into three components: Insurance, Investment, and Speculation.<\/p>\n

Since metals’ prices move counter-cyclically to most other financial categories like the stock market and bonds, your Insurance<\/u> portion is meant to be held indefinitely, helping offset a major decline in another category.<\/p>\n

Hold the Investment<\/u> portion through what you believe to be the majority of the secular bull run.<\/p>\n

For example, when silver topped in May 2011, you might have decided to sell the Speculation<\/u> component, which may have been purchased at, say, $20… giving you a 100% profit. Then, over the next seven years, you could have bought it back into declining prices at perceived chart support levels.<\/p>\n

The psychological benefits of such a strategy should not be underestimated. Some of those who gave up the ghost during the last year or so may have held onto their silver<\/a> for two or three decades<\/i>, and never sold an ounce!<\/p>\n

Don’t quit!<\/h2>\n

Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell, of Lone Survivor<\/i> fame says,<\/p>\n

If you never quit, you’ll never know how to… Never, never give up. In that last second, you may get the card that you needed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So don’t quit on Silver. Run through the OODA Loop again. Rework your Plan. Add another tranche of bullion. Get some gold<\/a> too.<\/p>\n

Read (or re-read) David Morgan’s<\/a> and my book, Second Chance<\/a>: How to Make (and Keep) Big Money from the Coming Gold and Silver Shock-Wave<\/i>.<\/p>\n

And get a copy of Bob Moriarty’s<\/a> new book on Amazon, Basic Investing in Resource Stocks: The Idiot’s Guide<\/i>. These two titles can take you to \u2013 and keep you at \u2013 the next level.<\/p>\n

Fishing for Success, Safety and Profit? Go Against<\/u> Sentiment!<\/h2>\n

I was cold and wet, casting flies in 60 mph winds for giant Rainbow trout on Argentina’s remote Jurassic Lake.<\/p>\n

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\"Rainbow<\/p>\n

Last day, last cast, Jurassic Lake, Argentina.
\nJust say “No!” to negative sentiment!<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The day before, while releasing a 10 pounder from a rock ledge, a wave and high winds had blown me into the lake. The guide somehow grabbed onto my vest so I could claw my way back up the side, breaking 8 fingernails in the process. Talk about negative sentiment!<\/p>\n

The next and last day of the trip was drawing a blank. Finally, our guide said it was time to go, and my fishing partner started taking down his rod.<\/p>\n

But I made one more cast, and after a hard strike and a wild fight, I released a 15-pound Rainbow \u2013 my largest of the trip. All because I was willing to “push through the doubt” and take that last cast.<\/p>\n

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\"SEG<\/p>\n

Physical silver deliveries
\nin Asia are skyrocketing.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Silver is building up a head of steam for its next big run. India and China’s buying continues to increase, even as several big silver miners fight declining production.<\/p>\n

Don’t be fooled by the market’s negative sentiment. Stay in the Game, and take one more cast.<\/p>\n

Sell a little on the way up.<\/p>\n

Decide you will claim a seat at the Winners’ Table in a few years, when this mega-trend has run its course. I’ll see you there…<\/p>\n

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The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Money Metals News Service The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006. The next two years saw the last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-146320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=146320"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":146326,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/146320\/revisions\/146326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=146320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=146320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=146320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}