{"id":145416,"date":"2019-04-08T14:38:40","date_gmt":"2019-04-08T18:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=145416"},"modified":"2019-04-08T11:22:34","modified_gmt":"2019-04-08T15:22:34","slug":"upcoming-australian-home-loans-swiss-unemployment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/04\/upcoming-australian-home-loans-swiss-unemployment\/","title":{"rendered":"Upcoming: Australian Home Loans & Swiss Unemployment"},"content":{"rendered":"
April 8, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The start of economic data driving volatility for both the AUD and CHF pairs is on Tuesday really early (or Monday really late). We will see a couple of data releases coming out that could impact the markets, as they have done so in the past.<\/p>\n

In the case of Australia,\u00a0home sales<\/strong>\u00a0and the potential spill over into the economy are on everyone\u2019s minds. Therefore, home loan approvals are an indicator lots of people are following. On the Swiss side, we get another look at their unusual employment situation with the release of their March unemployment rate.<\/p>\n

If you are trading AUD and\/or CHF pairs, here are some things to keep in mind to help set up your trades in the lead up to these volatility-inducing events.<\/p>\n

Australian Schedule and Expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n

We start with the Australian data at 03:30 CET (which is 21:30 the day before EST). The only bit of economic insight we\u2019re expecting for the day is the month over month change in home loan approvals and total monthly change in housing investment.<\/p>\n

The consensus among analysts is for the\u00a0number of mortgages in Australia approved to decrease again by 0.4%.<\/strong>\u00a0 However, this would be an improvement over the -2.4% registered last month and the fourth consecutive negative reading. Last month\u2019s data was already a not as negative figure from the prior month. However,\u00a0home loans have been negative for over a year (with just two exceptions).<\/strong><\/p>

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Australia Market Moves<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The data that the market moves on is usually the number of\u00a0approved\u00a0home loans. This considers only the number of mortgages granted for own use, and not for investment, resale or renting. It\u2019s a more accurate reflection of the \u201ccore\u201d market since it\u00a0typically\u00a0excludes \u201cspeculative\u201d house buying.<\/p>\n

However, if we are worried about a housing bubble bursting, then the investment in housing loans is the figure we should be looking at. This is because speculatory buying is usually the first to hit an impending housing crisis. On this front, the data has been coming in much more negative and for a longer time than home buying. While this is unlikely to move the market in the immediate term, this is a good gauge of capital flows into the country for investment purposes. And it ought to be watched closely for long-term trends in capital flows.<\/p>\n

Swiss Schedule and Expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Switzerland\u2019s SECO will be publishing the country\u2019s unemployment rate at 07:45 CET (or 1:45 EST). This is before the European equity markets are open (and most European major traders are at their desks).\u00a0Projections are for<\/strong>\u00a0the figure to drop a decimal to 2.3% from the current 2.4%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve talked at length previously about how Switzerland has\u00a0an unusual employment situation.<\/a>\u00a0During our analysis, we covered why an otherwise small change such as just a decimal (as projected in this case) has an outsized effect on its interpretation by the markets.<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate in Switzerland has been tracking steadily at 2.4% since November. It has also been keeping pace with expectations. The rate has been declining for years, and a further decimal tick down would be well within the trend.<\/p>\n

The issue is that employment is usually the last indicator to be affected during economic difficulties. And, given the concerns about the economy among Switzerland\u2019s neighbors and largest clients, a tick down in the rate (an improvement) would likely be seen as a relief for the market. A move higher wouldn\u2019t be all that surprising.\u00a0 And it would help fuel, counterintuitively, strength in the Franc as investors seek a safe haven.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex The start of economic data driving volatility for both the AUD and CHF pairs is on Tuesday really early (or Monday really late). We will see a couple of data releases coming out that could impact the markets, as they have done so in the past. In the case of Australia,\u00a0home sales\u00a0and the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145416"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":145425,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145416\/revisions\/145425"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}