{"id":145286,"date":"2019-04-07T07:30:32","date_gmt":"2019-04-07T11:30:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=145286"},"modified":"2019-04-06T11:24:28","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T15:24:28","slug":"the-trade-week-ahead-currency-point-cross-of-the-tasman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/04\/the-trade-week-ahead-currency-point-cross-of-the-tasman\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trade Week Ahead \u2013 Currency Point: Cross of the Tasman"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1618640630\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">April 7, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><div class=\"section-header\">\n<p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_7088\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/97zPFwx4ieM\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>With macro risk at very high levels in Europe \u2013 Brexit taking several sharp turns and the EU heading into the European Parliament elections the EUR and the GBP are becoming hard to touch as direction is changing like the wind.<\/p>\n<p>Thus, it is prudent in this current environment to look to pairs or crosses that one can removed this geo-political risk. Right now, in my option, that cross is AUD\/NZD.<\/p>\n<p>The AUD has begun to outperform its Tasman counterpart as recent Australian economic data has surprised to the upside. Retail sales, balance of trade and employment remain above consensus forecasts and although there is deterioration in the housing market and growth risks leading to possible RBA rate cuts, the 40bp of cuts priced in for 2019 is well-flagged and in my view overdone.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Thus the trade has actually materialised from the NZD side. The communication from RBNZ has seen a significant shift in \u2018view\u2019 and has a dovish tone. \u00a0This has led the market to believe the Bank is gearing up to cut rates by 25bp at the May meeting to 1.50%. Thus our short view of NZD<\/p>\n<p>The differential in the AUD\/NZD has been building for a while, the fall to $1.03 was built off the language and view changes from the RBA in February and the March statement. This is clearly overdone and ignores the RBA\u2019s \u2018want\u2019 which is for rates to actually increase. If the RBA can sit on its hands it will and that data so far is backing this idea.<\/p>\n<p>Secondly, Australia will benefit from constructive changes in the US-China trade war and overall increases in sentiment around the Chinese economy. Thus, an AUD\/NZD long call is one we think will benefit over this period as these two point ramp up.<\/p><div id=\"inves-3740250353\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Target is $1.09 with a Stop at $1.03<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-20435\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WA0504-550x340.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WA0504-550x340.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/WA0504.jpg 552w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"340\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>By <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By FPMarkets.com With macro risk at very high levels in Europe \u2013 Brexit taking several sharp turns and the EU heading into the European Parliament elections the EUR and the GBP are becoming hard to touch as direction is changing like the wind. Thus, it is prudent in this current environment to look to pairs [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-145286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145286"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145286\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":145287,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145286\/revisions\/145287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}