{"id":144978,"date":"2019-04-03T09:59:25","date_gmt":"2019-04-03T13:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=144978"},"modified":"2019-04-03T09:28:07","modified_gmt":"2019-04-03T13:28:07","slug":"non-manufacturing-pmi-adp-payrolls-to-keep-pressure-on-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/04\/non-manufacturing-pmi-adp-payrolls-to-keep-pressure-on-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Non-Manufacturing PMI & ADP Payrolls To Keep Pressure On USD"},"content":{"rendered":"
April 3, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The markets are heading into a busy second half of the week with still a lot of data due to come over.\u00a0Today, the non-manufacturing PMI report from the Institute of Supply Management will be coming out<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This is followed up by the\u00a0ADP payrolls report that is due tomorrow.<\/strong>\u00a0The dataset is likely to shape the expectations of investors as we head into Friday\u2019s payrolls report.<\/p>\n

It will also set the base for shaping the expectations of investors on how the US economy might have performed in the first quarter of this year.<\/p>\n

In the backdrop of the recent market talk about an inverted yield curve, the ISM\u2019s non-manufacturing PMI will gain even more prominence.<\/strong>\u00a0Market watchers are divided on whether the recent inverted yield curve is a precursor to recession.<\/p>\n

The incoming data will likely shed more light on this.<\/p>

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Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast to Ease to 58.7<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Economists forecast that the ISM\u2019s non-Manufacturing PMI will fall to 58.7 in March. This follows\u00a0February\u2019s increase in the index to 59.7<\/strong>. In February, non-manufacturing activity rose by 3 points. The data beat expectations of 57.3.<\/p>\n

The data was surprising as the\u00a0gains were led by a rebound in new orders<\/strong>. February\u2019s non-manufacturing PMI reading was the highest jump on a monthly basis this year.\u00a0Various measures of new orders and business activity rose to a 13-year high<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

All the 18 industries in the survey reported growth. Businesses were optimistic that consumer demand for the services sector will rise. This also comes as the effects of the December\/January\u00a0partial government shutdown<\/a>\u00a0starts to fade.<\/p>\n

The only blip in the data was the employment gauge.\u00a0The employment gauge fell to an eight-month low although staying at historically high levels.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was a jump in the measure of backlogs leading to an increase in delivery times for the first time since October last year.<\/p>\n

February\u2019s NMI report shows that the overall economy from the services sector perspective was growing but at a slower pace.<\/p>\n

Therefore, it is likely to see that the index could possibly come out lower when comparing to February. But at the same time, most of the respondents had concerns about the partial government shutdown,\u00a0which could see the outcome in either direction<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

ADP Payrolls Forecast to\u00a0Jump\u00a0184k in March<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The ADP payrolls report for March is also on the tap this week. Economists expect that the private sector added 184k jobs in March.\u00a0This marks a slightly higher increase comparing to\u00a0February<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

However, the February data could see downside revisions. This comes as the US nonfarm payrolls report saw the small job gains being added during the month.<\/p>\n

\"ADP<\/a>
ADP National Employment change, February 2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In February, the ADP payrolls report saw the US economy adding 183k<\/strong>\u00a0jobs<\/strong>\u00a0in the private sector. The report which is released by\u00a0Automatic Data Processing Inc.<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0Moody\u2019s Analytics<\/em>\u00a0saw broad-based gains across all sectors.<\/p>\n

It was only the\u00a0education sector that shed 2000 jobs during the month<\/strong>. Job gains in the private sector came with business services leading the way, followed by health services and construction.<\/p>\n

The average pace of job creation in 2018 as measured by the ADP\/Moody\u2019s stood at 219k while the first quarter average in 2018 was 228k.<\/strong>\u00a0As of the February report, the average currently stands at 242k. Therefore, despite a weaker reading on the data, the overall trend is likely to remain above the averages.<\/p>\n

If the ADP payrolls report meets the expectations, it would still keep the three-month average well above the previous levels.<\/p>\n

However, the markets could see a knee-jerk reaction if the data disappoints. Investors will be focusing on the revisions to the previous month\u2019s data which remains a wildcard if we get to see a weaker pace of job creation in March.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex The markets are heading into a busy second half of the week with still a lot of data due to come over.\u00a0Today, the non-manufacturing PMI report from the Institute of Supply Management will be coming out. This is followed up by the\u00a0ADP payrolls report that is due tomorrow.\u00a0The dataset is likely to shape […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-144978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=144978"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":144981,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144978\/revisions\/144981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=144978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=144978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=144978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}