{"id":143508,"date":"2019-03-12T12:30:41","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T16:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=143508"},"modified":"2019-03-12T11:51:12","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T15:51:12","slug":"mays-last-minute-changes-enough-to-pass-tonights-parliament-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/03\/mays-last-minute-changes-enough-to-pass-tonights-parliament-vote\/","title":{"rendered":"May\u2019s Last-Minute Changes Enough To Pass Tonight\u2019s Parliament Vote?"},"content":{"rendered":"
March 12, 2019<\/div>
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By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The battered vehicle that is Theresa May\u2019s Brexit campaign trundles on. And today, it\u2019s receiving a new lease of life from\u00a0news\u00a0overnight\u00a0that the PM has secured the legal binding changes many MPs were calling for.<\/p>\n

In a vote to be held in UK parliament later today, MPs will be asked to vote on five documents. The first two are the withdrawal agreement and political declaration penned last year.<\/p>\n

The other three to be voted on are\u00a0pursuant to the changes agreed upon between May and EU leaders over the last couple of days.<\/p>\n

What Are The New Changes<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The first new document addresses the issue of the longevity of the Irish backstop:<\/p>\n

(3) the legally binding joint instrument titled \u2018Instrument relating to the agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community\u2019, which reduces the risk the UK could be deliberately held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely and commits the UK and the EU to work to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The second document addresses the actions the UK government can take to ensure the backstop is only temporary:<\/p>

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(4) the unilateral declaration by the UK titled \u2018Declaration by Her Majesty\u2019s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol\u2019, setting out the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And the third new document addresses the future of the relationship between the EU and the UK and Northern Ireland:<\/p>\n

(5) the supplement to the framework for the future relationship titled \u2018Joint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland\u2019, setting out commitments by the UK and the EU to expedite the negotiation and bringing into force of their future relationship.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So, with these new changes in play, will MPs vote in May\u2019s favor this time around?<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Passing her amended Brexit bill through parliament today will be no easy task for May. Last time around, the PM suffered a historic 430 \u2013 202 defeat. In order to gain the 116 new votes needed to win, May will need to gather support from across the political spectrum.<\/p>\n

Unforunately, this has become even more divided in recent weeks. A new breakaway political group formed, counting both former Tory and Labour MPs as members. To add to this, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn officially gave his backing to a second referendum.<\/p>\n

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexiteer Conservative MP and a firm opponent of May\u2019s deal said that the changes are \u201c[unquestionably] a step in the right direction.\u201d However, he will be waiting to hear new legal advice from the attorney general before making his mind up.<\/p>\n

Indeed, it seems the DUP are equally on the fence about whether to support May\u2019s changes. And so again, it looks like MPs are waiting to hear the new legal advice.<\/p>\n

If the attorney general can assure parliament that changes made amount to concrete, tangible legal aspects and not merely \u201cpromises of goodwill\u201d then May stands a strong chance of her bill going through.<\/p>\n

However, if the new legal advice concludes that the changes are too vague and bereft of substance, May looks set for another defeat.<\/p>\n

What happens if May loses?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

If May is defeated again, MP\u2019s will then given a chance to vote again on March 14th<\/sup>. This time they will be voting on whether the UK should press ahead with a\u00a0no-deal Brexit<\/a>\u00a0or whether the government should pursue an extension to the\u00a0current March 29th<\/sup>\u00a0Brexit deadline<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Technical Perspective<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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After trading back up to the 1.33 level, GBPUSD has once again been turned lower as price remains mid-bound within the bullish channel still framing price action. A break of the 1.33 level will be needed to keep bullish momentum in play. Otherwise, price is vulnerable to a reversal lower. However, the channel base and first support at 1.2968 are opening the way for a move down to the next structural support at 1.2784.<\/p>\n

By <\/strong>Orbex<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Orbex The battered vehicle that is Theresa May\u2019s Brexit campaign trundles on. And today, it\u2019s receiving a new lease of life from\u00a0news\u00a0overnight\u00a0that the PM has secured the legal binding changes many MPs were calling for. In a vote to be held in UK parliament later today, MPs will be asked to vote on five […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-143508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143508"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143508\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":143518,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143508\/revisions\/143518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}