{"id":143470,"date":"2019-03-12T10:15:16","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T14:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=143470"},"modified":"2019-03-12T06:45:50","modified_gmt":"2019-03-12T10:45:50","slug":"eurgbp-analysis-preparing-for-a-new-brexit-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/03\/eurgbp-analysis-preparing-for-a-new-brexit-vote\/","title":{"rendered":"EURGBP Analysis: Preparing for a new Brexit vote"},"content":{"rendered":"
March 12, 2019<\/div>
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By IFCMarkets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Preparing for a new Brexit vote<\/strong><\/p>\n

On Tuesday, March 12, 2019, the House of Commons may vote on terms of the UK\u2019s exit from the European Union. Is there a possibility for a big EURGBP<\/a> change?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Such dynamics indicate the weakening of the euro and the strengthening of the British pound. On March 11, 2019, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and British Prime Minister Theresa May had telephone negotiations. According to their results, Juncker declared that \u201cthe ball is now in UK\u2019s court\u201d. Theoretically, the European Parliament can ratify the version of the agreement for which the British parliament should vote now. Let us recall that the UK\u2019s exit from the EU is scheduled for March 29, 2019. If the parliament does not agree with Brexit without an agreement with the European Union, then the actual release date can be postponed for several months. On Monday, the pound strengthened by almost 1% against the US dollar, as investors believe that either the Brexit date will be postponed, or the UK will enter into an agreement with the EU. Let us note that on March 12, significant macroeconomic statistics for January will come out in the UK: GDP, trade balance, industrial production. In turn, the euro shows a noticeable weakening after the ECB meeting held last week. In September 2019, the European regulator is going to launch a new asset purchase program TLTRO-3, which will last until March 2021. The purchase of assets will be conducted through the money emission (following the example of the US QE programs). The ECB explained the easing of its monetary policy by low Eurozone GDP growth and low inflation.<\/p>\n

\"EURGBP\"<\/p>\n

On the daily timeframe, EURGBP: D1<\/b> has again fallen below the lower boundary of the long-term neutral range. Before that, it tried to breached it up and return to the neutral range. The price decrease and the continuation of the downtrend is possible in case of the approval of the Brexit plan by the British Parliament, as well as in case of the publication of positive macroeconomic data in the UK and negative – in the Eurozone. Otherwise, the price increase is not excluded.<\/p>\n