{"id":142283,"date":"2019-02-22T05:36:03","date_gmt":"2019-02-22T10:36:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=142283"},"modified":"2019-02-21T19:37:26","modified_gmt":"2019-02-22T00:37:26","slug":"traders-must-stay-optimistically-cautious-part-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/02\/traders-must-stay-optimistically-cautious-part-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders Must Stay Optimistically Cautious Part II"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 22, 2019<\/div>
\r\n<\/div><\/div>

By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This Part II of our research post regarding the future potential of any very deep market correction and\/or a potential new-age market rally based on our presumption that the global market dynamics have changed dramatically over the past 20+ years.\u00a0 Are the market gurus correct in thinking the next big move will be to the downside?\u00a0 Or are they missing key aspects of the global market dynamics that point to a massive upside rally that is setting up for the future.\u00a0 Today, we continue to explore some of the key elements that we believe present a total scope of the potential for the global markets.<\/p>\n

In Part I of this article<\/a>, we highlighted how globalization changed the planet and increased inter-dependence across the globe for economies and governments.\u00a0 The point we wanted to make from the first segment was to highlight the fact that the current world economies are vastly different than the global economy prior to 1980 or 1970.\u00a0 Over the past 20+ years, the world\u2019s economies have become more and more connected and interdependent on one another.\u00a0 Additionally, global investors and financial institutions have become heavily interconnected and reliant on the global market economies of the world.\u00a0 The reality is, the world is vastly different than it was 40+ years ago in terms of finance, banking, and investment objectives.<\/p>\n

Today lets focus on the world\u2019s central banks and their partners \u2013 the global banking\/finance enterprises.\u00a0 Something very interesting has taken place over the past 20 years.\u00a0 The world\u2019s central banks have avoided crisis and controversy by pouring over $20 Trillion<\/p>\n

The wealth and capital that has been created over the past 50 years have acted in multiple means to drive social, economic and human improvement over time.\u00a0 Please take a moment to consider in 1970, the total World Per Capita GDP was $802.123.\u00a0 In 2017 the total World Per Capita GDP was $10,721.609 \u2013 this represents a massive 1337% increase over the past 50 years or a total of 26% annually over this span of time.<\/p>\n

As the total global debt rose, the amount of capital that entered the markets also rose.\u00a0 At a time when the capital investment was somewhat isolated (in the 1970s), a boom of globalization and cross-nation industrialization\/manufacturing created a massive amount of wealth and opportunity for people around the globe.\u00a0 This resulted in a massive 26% average annual increase in global GDP since 1970.<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n

Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
<\/div>\n

Additionally, the US has been a major driving force in the creation of this new wealth and prosperity.\u00a0 Throughout the late 1980s and 1990s, an incredible new technology launched globalization across almost all nations and increased the ability for all nations to enact new enterprises and commerce in a way that was never even imagined before \u2013 the Internet.\u00a0 We will show charts that support our points that Per Capita output rose dramatically throughout this time frame with very little central bank support.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Source : https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2017&start=1970)<\/p>\n

Consider this very important fact regarding the incredible growth of global GDP; after the year 2000, total global capitalization more than DOUBLED over the past 19 years.\u00a0 Yes, that is correct, the amount of capital within the world right now is more than double the total global capitalization that was accumulated over the past 250+ years.\u00a0 The world entered a period where the September 11 attack on the US disrupted the global markets with such force, that a massive amount of capital was deployed to offset the global risks.\u00a0 Again, the 2008-09 global credit crisis created another massive risk event where even more capital was deployed throughout the planet to support the global banking markets and to support institutional infrastructure that allows for continued global growth.<\/p>\n

Now, let\u2019s compare this GDP growth to the actual US Federal Reserve total debt.\u00a0 We find it interesting that massive amounts of recent debt have yet to really create any recent massive increases in GDP output.\u00a0 We believe this is a result of a \u201crestructuring\u201d process throughout the global economy following the 2009 through 2014 global market recovery process.\u00a0 In other words, the total global economies have yet to begin firing on all cylinders again and, after a sufficient period of \u201crestructuring\u201d, we believe the global economies will begin to re-sync with renewed optimism and opportunity.\u00a0 Think of this \u201cre-syncing event\u201d as a global revaluation event where proper levels of valuations are attained before a new increase in global GDP output will resume.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The timing of the past 40+ years may have played an important role in providing for the recent GDP increases as well as the global credit market events that have resulted in massive central bank intervention.\u00a0 Our theory is that after the US Fed interest rate peak, near 1982, the continued globalization process (outsourcing of the US economy to other sources throughout the planet) resulted in a \u201creversion process\u201d within the US that allowed for massive growth in foreign markets while revaluing the US markets to suitable levels and allowing for a transition process to take place across the globe.<\/p>\n

This transition process is now mostly complete and the recent 2009~2014 credit crisis that recapitalized the planet with capital\/cash has currently primed the global economic engine for a spark.\u00a0 The only thing we\u2019re waiting on right now is for the global markets to settle the \u201crevaluation phase\u201d and latch onto some new technology or infrastructure project that will launch a new economic boom cycle.\u00a0 Within the past 20+ years, the US Fed has pumped nearly $16 Trillion dollars into the global economy (+300% compared to 1999 levels) and the Global GDP output levels have risen from roughly 5.5k to 10.9k (+200% compared to 1999 levels).\u00a0 Comparatively, from 1970 to 1999, the US Fed had pumped over $6 trillion into the global economy (over 450% from 1970 levels) and GDP rose from 0.8K to $5.5k over that same time (+680%).\u00a0 If our analysis is correct, global GDP should begin to increase dramatically and should target levels well above $15~18k within a 10~20 year span.<\/p>\n

Let that sink in for a bit as we prepare for Part III of this research post.<\/p>\n

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, then visit\u00a0TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong> to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades.\u00a0 Take a look at some of our recent winners to see how we help people, just like you, create success.\u00a0 We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.\u00a0 In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.\u00a0 Isn\u2019t it time you invested in your future success by joining a team of professionals dedicated to giving you an advantage in the markets every day?<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nTechnical Traders Ltd.
\nTheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com This Part II of our research post regarding the future potential of any very deep market correction and\/or a potential new-age market rally based on our presumption that the global market dynamics have changed dramatically over the past 20+ years.\u00a0 Are the market gurus correct in thinking the next big move will be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-142283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142283"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142283\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":142284,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142283\/revisions\/142284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}