{"id":140755,"date":"2019-01-29T07:55:30","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T12:55:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=140755"},"modified":"2019-01-29T06:56:02","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T11:56:02","slug":"the-trade-week-ahead-staying-the-course-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2019\/01\/the-trade-week-ahead-staying-the-course-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trade Week Ahead \u2013 Staying the Course"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2162348582\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">January 29, 2019<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_5063\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/I3yIBvd3aJY\" width=\"720\" height=\"480\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Want to review my Cable trade, for the past 2 months, I have been net long GBP moving in and out as need to remove event risks, the reason for the net long call was the chances of some sort of deal was always the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past week and a half that scenario is now looking like a certainly and Cable is pricing this idea.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-19677\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/WeekAhead-29.01.19-550x342.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/WeekAhead-29.01.19-550x342.jpg 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/WeekAhead-29.01.19.jpg 591w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"342\" \/><br \/>\n(Source: Bloomberg)<\/p>\n<p>There is a clear break out here and the move through the 200-day moving average is a positive sign. Suspect it will shift higher still on an actually deal. However, the market is clearly biased to this way of thinking and thus the shift higher is unlikely to be a \u2018gapping\u2019 movement as a \u2018deal\u2019 is starting to be baked in. Looking for 1.325\/30<\/p>\n<p>Next 2 weeks also sees the first central bank meetings of 2019, it starts this week with the FOMC later in the week.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2707158187\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Key points to the meeting:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Funds rate will remain on hold \u2013 the question is, are we actually at the \u2018neutral\u2019 cash rate already?<\/li>\n<li>Watch how many different members use \u2018patient\u2019 and \u2018data dependent\u2019 \u2013 the communication currently is \u2018lock step\u2019 with a very consistent message. This week\u2019s meeting is also the first of eight press conference meetings for 2019. Will be listening out for clues about where the Board sees rates in the latter half of the year.<\/li>\n<li>There are also signs that the Board is considering changes to its balance sheet policy, unlikely to be done at this week\u2019s meeting. However, its plausible this could happen this year thus further to the FOMC rate calls expect Chairman Powell to reiterate that balance sheet policy is \u2018flexible\u2019 in principle.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All-in-all these are dovish stances, and the conformation of this call is likely moving the growth communication from \u2018strong\u2019 to \u2018solid\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Reiterate that the USD is likely to ease over the coming period.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/go.fpmarkets.com\/visit\/?bta=35137&amp;nci=5462\" target=\"_Top\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fpmarkets.ck-cdn.com\/tn\/serve\/?cid=361646\" width=\"728\" height=\"90\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>15 and Counting: Inflation<\/b><\/p>\n<p>AUD has been rather resilient of late. This is despite the fact Chinese data has been rather poor and political risk has increased. The movement back toward 71.60\/70 was solid without show signs buyers are keen to break it out.<\/p>\n<p>I believe this week\u2019s inflation data should be a trigger for a move back toward mid to low 70cents. Australian inflation just hasn\u2019t been firing on any level over the past 3 \u00bd years, come Wednesday it is likely that for the 15th consecutive quarter trimmed-mean (core) inflation, the RBA\u2019s preferred measure of inflation, will be below its target band of 2% to 3%.<\/p>\n<p>Housing had done most of the heavy lifting over the past four quarters however housing inflation is likely to have flat lined in the last quarter meaning other components will need to have pick up the slack and I can\u2019t see this happening. The question that comes from this statement is at what point does the RBA admit this is becoming a consistent problem that causes them to act on rates?<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Article provided by <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>FPMarkets.com<\/em><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Want to review my Cable trade, for the past 2 months, I have been net long GBP moving in and out as need to remove event risks, the reason for the net long call was the chances of some sort of deal was always the most likely outcome. Over the past [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-140755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140755"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":140756,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140755\/revisions\/140756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}