{"id":139071,"date":"2018-12-18T10:40:58","date_gmt":"2018-12-18T15:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=139071"},"modified":"2018-12-18T07:26:00","modified_gmt":"2018-12-18T12:26:00","slug":"cocoa-analysis-there-is-a-drought-in-west-africa-will-cocoa-prices-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/12\/cocoa-analysis-there-is-a-drought-in-west-africa-will-cocoa-prices-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"COCOA Analysis: There is a drought in West Africa. Will Cocoa prices rise?"},"content":{"rendered":"
December 18, 2018<\/div>
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By IFCMarkets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Drought can reduce crop yields<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is a drought in West Africa. Will Cocoa prices<\/a> rise?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

From November to February, a dry season is observed in C\u00f4te d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Togo and Cameroon. These five African countries account for three quarters of the world’s cocoa production. This year, the drought is stronger there than usual, which can damage crop yields. The US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts a 90% chance of formation of the natural phenomenon El Ni\u00f1o in winter of 2018\/19 and a 60% probability of its formation in spring of 2019. At the same time, the CPC expects the current El Ni\u00f1o to be weak. The last time it was formed in 2015-2016, and during that period of time, the price of beans exceeded $3000 per ton. It should be noted that currently there is no shortage of cocoa in the world, so the dynamics of quotations can strongly depend on the weather in West Africa.<\/p>\n

\"Cocoa\"<\/p>\n

On the daily timeframe, Cocoa: D1<\/b> is moving upward within a rising trend. The further price increase is possible in case of a reduction in crop yields in the countries of West Africa.<\/p>\n