{"id":137555,"date":"2018-11-19T07:35:30","date_gmt":"2018-11-19T12:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=137555"},"modified":"2018-11-19T06:52:42","modified_gmt":"2018-11-19T11:52:42","slug":"the-trade-week-ahead-staying-the-course","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/11\/the-trade-week-ahead-staying-the-course\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trade Week Ahead \u2013 Staying the Course"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-3020449220\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 19, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FPMarkets.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_6742\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Zl_0fNLFwOI?ecver=2\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>Remain solid in my view short bias of EURAUD, I see the June low as the next level of support and thus want to remain short all the way down to 1.53.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-18530\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/123164564-550x286.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/123164564-550x286.png 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/123164564.png 787w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"286\" \/><br \/>\nTechnicals tell me so but so does the macro backdrop for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019<\/p>\n<p>EUR Side:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 The so called EU \u2018renaissance\u2019 in growth has faded as geo-politics and general malaise filtered through in late 2018 and will likely carry through into 2019. The leading activity metrics that were firing in early 2018 are now behind the EU area.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 The slack in traditional measures such as employment and manufacturing has been almost fully absorbed, meaning less room for further growth.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Trade issues remain a headwind.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2212485221\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>\u2022 2019 will see geo-politics come to a head with the European Parliamentary elections. The rise of nationalism will likely be a head wind here: France, Italy and Germany have seen a large rise in nationalism.<\/p>\n<p>AUD side:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Overall strength in traditional measures, growth in 2018 has and will remain ahead of consensus, employment is boom and absorbing slack, wages are growth at their strongest levels in 16 quarters and consumer confidence is peaking.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Despite \u201cdoomsday\u201d calls of a housing crash in Australia the supportive macro fundamentals are consistent with above-trend growth for 2019 and confidence in employment is likely to put a floor in the housing market reducing its possible headwind issues.<\/p>\n<p>All confirms my short bias on EUR\/AUD<\/p>\n<p>AUD is still a proxy for EM<\/p>\n<p>However, AUDUSD is a different story despite the domestic economic strength. AUD has had three failures of the 73.00 handle as EM remains uncertain. The pair looks range bound now between 70.50 and 73.00 it will need a circuit breaker in my opinion to breakout either an EM positive break out story or, some US strength that smashes through the lower support.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m leaning to the latter as China is the key and here is why:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-18531\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/5432732732732-548x410.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 548px) 100vw, 548px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/5432732732732-548x410.png 548w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/5432732732732.png 823w\" alt=\"\" width=\"548\" height=\"410\" \/><br \/>\n\u2022 EM and AUD remain tightly correlated \u2013 the MSCI EM index is dominated by China and further deceleration in China and thus EM will like mean the AUD will test 70.5 pretty quickly.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 China has been flexible in easing policy to buffer the slowdown \u2013 see the changes to the reserve requirement ratios, the debt to equity swap program and moderating but still solid infrastructure programs \u2013 but it is only buffering, not accelerating.<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 The uncertainty for the market is what does the economic roadmap for China farther out look like?<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Is there a possibility of the debt-driven growth model making a \u2018return tour\u2019?<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 Will there be a diminished economic role of private enterprises?<\/p>\n<p>These 2019 outlook points add to concerns for EM and thus AUD. Therefore; currently neutral on AUDUSD however I see EM downside risks thus have a slight negative bias on AUDUSD.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Article provided by <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>FPMarkets.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com Remain solid in my view short bias of EURAUD, I see the June low as the next level of support and thus want to remain short all the way down to 1.53. Technicals tell me so but so does the macro backdrop for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 EUR [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-137555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=137555"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":137556,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137555\/revisions\/137556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=137555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=137555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=137555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}